The 2020 Presidential Election Primary Thread

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Trump is just as old and doddery as Biden ever thought about being. At least Biden knows when he's said something wrong.

That's simply not true. Biden doesn't know where he is half the time.

[SeattleUte]

I'm optimistic that this will work out. We're seeing that the vast majority of the electorate, including in the democratic party, is not crazy. We've seen a huge shift in the past two weeks and this has created an unreliable illusion that is only temporary. Biden and Warren are imploding. Sanders has benefitted from both those developments. He's picked up some socialists from Warren's losses, but not many. We see that Warren has lost support because most of her support actually were not socialists. Her death spiral started when she tried to explain how she was going to raise the money to fund her socialist proposals--something Sanders has resisted. Sanders's polling numbers in NH didn't improve by much. The biggest boost was that previously the democrat moderate lane appeared to have consolidated around a single candidate, Biden. For whatever reason, Biden's support is dissolving. Thus, this consolidation is, for now, gone because Biden's and some of Warren's support has been distributed between Pete, Amy and Bloomberg (Blomberg's is the only last name I have any confidence in correctly spelling; hence, Pete and Amy).

But everything is fluid. And there are vast numbers of sane, centrist votes for the taking. Many more than are available to Sanders. He and what's left of Warren (presumably the part of her base that is more socialist) totaled only 35% of the NH vote. There is the risk of the Trump phenomenon, that Biden, Bloomberg, Amy, and Pete will continue to split that 65% and Sanders will therefore continue to win with a bare plurality. But I'm not taking this for granted. Trump was stronger than Sanders 2020 in NH, winning by 22%. And the current situation is recent and fluid. Two of the centrists, Pete and Biden, have evident flaws. Pete has had no ability attracting AA and Latino support, and Biden is clearly past his prime as he appears to shriveling up before us. Bloomberg missed the early primaries. I think its' likely 2-3 of the centrists will do very poorly on Super Tuesday and democrats will emerge with a strong moderate frontrunner.

I'm betting on Bloomberg, but I do think the next most likely is Amy. She needs to continue her viscous attacks on Pete, try to do a mercy kill for Biden, and start in on Bloomberg. She needs to gain ground on the moderates, because that's enough, she has to clear them out, and the extremists still solidly with Sanders and Warren are zealot socialists.

Swish!

[myboynoah]

Now this is a First Lady!

Embedded Tweet

[Bo Diddley]

What the hell, Utah?

Ton of Trump supporter but jobs voting for Bernie, no doubt.

[frank ryan]

Ton of Trump supporter but jobs voting for Bernie, no doubt.

Nah, see my above posts. I don't think there was a massive influx of Trump supporters that pushed Bernie through. He won by a lot. It's a primary year for GOP with gov's race etc, and I don't think they'd forefeit that.

Biden didn't com in second he was 3rd. Bernie got more than twice the votes Biden did.

Bloomberg needs to duck out of the race for Biden's sake.

[YOhio]

Dammit we lost Mike!

[BlueK]

With Bloomberg now out and with the states coming next, Bernie is pretty much done. He and Trump can start complaining now about how unfair it is.

March 10:
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
N. Dakota
Washington
Idaho

Bernie may still win those last three, but Biden will clean up in MI, MS, and MO and still probably pick up some delegates in the others.

March 17:
Arizona (Bernie might win)

Biden should easily win these:
Florida
Illinois
Ohio

[Uncle Ted]

Nah, see my above posts. I don't think there was a massive influx of Trump supporters that pushed Bernie through. He won by a lot. It's a primary year for GOP with gov's race etc, and I don't think they'd forefeit that.

Biden didn't com in second he was 3rd. Bernie got more than twice the votes Biden did.

Bloomberg needs to duck out of the race for Biden's sake.

Damn, there must be a bunch of Drumpf supporters in California... Bernie is kicking Bidden butt there too.

I am guessing there are a lot of Mitt supporters that are feeling the Bern.

[Uncle Ted]

Biden pulls ahead in Texas. Still not a safe lead.

Just goes to show you that Texas is much more sane place compared to some other places.

[Uncle Ted]

With Bloomberg now out and with the states coming next, Bernie is pretty much done. He and Trump can start complaining now about how unfair it is.

March 10:
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
N. Dakota
Washington
Idaho

Bernie may still win those last three, but Biden will clean up in MI, MS, and MO and still probably pick up some delegates in the others.

March 17:
Arizona (Bernie might win)

Biden should easily win these:
Florida
Illinois
Ohio

I wonder if Bernie will make Liz his running mate... she is currently in 3rd in the overall delegate count.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I wonder how much the big jumps in the Dow the first trading day after the South Carolina Primary, and again the day after Super Tuesday, are attributable to optimism that Bernie might not be the nominee, Corornavirus is still the major source of concern, but I think expectations regarding the Bern are factor

[Lost Student]

With Bloomberg now out and with the states coming next, Bernie is pretty much done. He and Trump can start complaining now about how unfair it is.

March 10:
Michigan
Mississippi
Missouri
N. Dakota
Washington
Idaho

Bernie may still win those last three, but Biden will clean up in MI, MS, and MO and still probably pick up some delegates in the others.

March 17:
Arizona (Bernie might win)

Biden should easily win these:
Florida
Illinois
Ohio

Bernie killed Hillary in Idaho last time around 78%-21%. The Dem primary is semi-closed, so maybe I'll go cast a vote for creepy uncle Joe next week. The R primary is closed, so I'll have to choose one or the other.

[Eddie]

Looks like Utah will be Biden's worst state.

Why the hell is Tulsi Gabbard still running? She keeps making appearances on Fox News.

Ton of Trump supporter but jobs voting for Bernie, no doubt.

Nah, see my above posts. I don't think there was a massive influx of Trump supporters that pushed Bernie through. He won by a lot. It's a primary year for GOP with gov's race etc, and I don't think they'd forefeit that.

Biden didn't com in second he was 3rd. Bernie got more than twice the votes Biden did.

Bloomberg needs to duck out of the race for Biden's sake.

My sister works as an official at one of the local polling places. She's one of those people who knows EVERYONE and wants to talk to EVERYONE - so when they're looking for people to run the polls, she signs up every year. I went in to vote instead of mailing it in, and she told me that there was a VERY large group of people requesting Dem ballots instead of GOP ones. It wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that many/most of them were voting for Bernie - with the belief that Trump has a better chance of beating him.

As for your "don't want to forfeit the governor's race" - did you even vote Frank? If you did, you'd know that this was a Presidential primary only. The governor primary election won't be until June. Caucuses are later this month, right? So anyone picking a Dem ballot over a GOP ballot would ONLY be voting to pick a presidential candidate. No one else even on the ballot.

[Eddie]

Dammit we lost Mike!

I don't want him for my president - but I have to give him credit. I have liked the ads he's been running non-stop in Utah, for the most part. I love that they are touting things he has done, or wants to do, and aren't completely focused on simply attacking his opponents ideas. I prefer an election where both sides put forth their ideas and "we the people" are voting on which ideas to support and implement rather than when an election is based on who can fling the most mud at their opponent.

Now - I have to admit that while these people in Bloomberg's ads are talking about all of the great stuff he's done for them I can't help but think that they are paid actors telling a story rather than real people sharing real experiences. But I still appreciate the approach.

[imanihonjin]

My sister works as an official at one of the local polling places. She's one of those people who knows EVERYONE and wants to talk to EVERYONE - so when they're looking for people to run the polls, she signs up every year. I went in to vote instead of mailing it in, and she told me that there was a VERY large group of people requesting Dem ballots instead of GOP ones. It wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that many/most of them were voting for Bernie - with the belief that Trump has a better chance of beating him.

As for your "don't want to forfeit the governor's race" - did you even vote Frank? If you did, you'd know that this was a Presidential primary only. The governor primary election won't be until June. Caucuses are later this month, right? So anyone picking a Dem ballot over a GOP ballot would ONLY be voting to pick a presidential candidate. No one else even on the ballot.

frank Eddie

me