Should they stay or should they go: Brexit 2016

[beefytee]

As bad as things are here is the states, it is some comfort that they could be much much worse like in GB.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Rather than put this in the "Last Film I Saw" thread, I'll recommend here the HBO movie, Brexit, with Benedict Cumberbatch as Dominic Cummings. Cummings is the tech-savvy political strategist thought to be the mastermind behind the surprising Brexit victory. He shunned traditional political strategies in favor of data mining, social media, and the help of American Robert Mercer (a Trump supporter who was the largest donor in the 2016 Presidential Election. Cummings also used a hitherto unknown company, Cambridge Analytica, to put together the upset win. Cummings savvily taps into a growing resentment among white lower- and middle-class voters in the UK, noting that this campaign actually began many years ago as that group of voters became increasingly disaffected. Needless to say, there are loads of parallels between the Brexit and Trump campaigns, although I found Brexit-supporter Boris Johnson's hair less annoying than Trump's.

[Paperback Writer]

Rather than put this in the "Last Film I Saw" thread, I'll recommend here the HBO movie, Brexit, with Benedict Cumberbatch as Dominic Cummings. Cummings is the tech-savvy political strategist thought to be the mastermind behind the surprising Brexit victory. He shunned traditional political strategies in favor of data mining, social media, and the help of American Robert Mercer (a Trump supporter who was the largest donor in the 2016 Presidential Election. Cummings also used a hitherto unknown company, Cambridge Analytica, to put together the upset win. Cummings savvily taps into a growing resentment among white lower- and middle-class voters in the UK, noting that this campaign actually began many years ago as that group of voters became increasingly disaffected. Needless to say, there are loads of parallels between the Brexit and Trump campaigns, although I found Brexit-supporter Boris Johnson's hair less annoying than Trump's.

I also saw the HBO film Brexit and agree with your analysis - there are many parallels between Brexit and the 2016 election that brought Trump to the white house. Something worth mentioning is that both the "leave EU" supporters and Trump supporters have similar views on immigration. I wasn't aware that immigration was a significant issue in the UK before watching Brexit. Also worth noting is that the extensive use of and reliance on data mining and social media in political campaigns was pioneered by Obama (nod to Uncle Ted: "what about Obama?"). Both the US and UK have a disaffected group of white, lower and middle class voters that is growing increasingly resentful (as you mention). The film Brexit remarks that this trend has been on-going now for decades and once it was identified and exploited in the UK, the Brexit outcome was all but predetermined: an unstoppable tide is the term I remember the film using. Brexit also references that Bill Clinton capitalized on this disaffected segment as well. It puzzles me that Hillary ignored this very segment that helped her husband upset an incumbent - she should have known better and it most likely cost her the 2016 election.

[Uncle Ted]

Rather than put this in the "Last Film I Saw" thread, I'll recommend here the HBO movie, Brexit, with Benedict Cumberbatch as Dominic Cummings. Cummings is the tech-savvy political strategist thought to be the mastermind behind the surprising Brexit victory. He shunned traditional political strategies in favor of data mining, social media, and the help of American Robert Mercer (a Trump supporter who was the largest donor in the 2016 Presidential Election. Cummings also used a hitherto unknown company, Cambridge Analytica, to put together the upset win. Cummings savvily taps into a growing resentment among white lower- and middle-class voters in the UK, noting that this campaign actually began many years ago as that group of voters became increasingly disaffected. Needless to say, there are loads of parallels between the Brexit and Trump campaigns, although I found Brexit-supporter Boris Johnson's hair less annoying than Trump's.

On PAC's recommendation I watched this film... If y'all haven't seen it yet, it's worth watching.

The scene with Dominic Cummings and Zack Massingham walking in the park is one of the best and simplest depictions of how data was and can be used to influence elections. From what I have read Dominic Cummings now spends most of his time studying and talking about ML (Machine Learning). This will be a big tool in all future elections so I guess folks need to stop worrying and learn to love AI rather than wasting their money on focus groups (another great scene) and other dated crap they are still teaching in business schools. Much better data can be mined from online sources. Folks working in these fields (AI, ML, data mining, etc.) and companies like Cambridge Analytica are going to make a killing.

The other scene that stood out was that of the forgotten voters home visit. That definitely paralleled with the Drumpf campaign. You could have substituted a family from the rust belt and the conversation would have been about the same. (When will the dems finally admit they really screwed up with these voters and stop blaming the Russian hackers?) You would think the MPs would have grown a brain started paying attention to these forgotten voters but it seems that nothing has changed.

[PaloAltoCougar]

On PAC's recommendation I watched this film... If y'all haven't seen it yet, it's worth watching.

The scene with Dominic Cummings and Zack Massingham walking in the park is one of the best and simplest depictions of how data was and can be used to influence elections. From what I have read Dominic Cummings now spends most of his time studying and talking about ML (Machine Learning). This will be a big tool in all future elections so I guess folks need to stop worrying and learn to love AI rather than wasting their money on focus groups (another great scene) and other dated crap they are still teaching in business schools. Much better data can be mined from online sources. Folks working in these fields (AI, ML, data mining, etc.) and companies like Cambridge Analytica are going to make a killing.

The other scene that stood out was that of the forgotten voters home visit. That definitely paralleled with the Drumpf campaign. You could have substituted a family from the rust belt and the conversation would have been about the same. (When will the dems finally admit they really screwed up with these voters and stop blaming the Russian hackers?) You would think the MPs would have grown a brain started paying attention to these forgotten voters but it seems that nothing has changed.

Ha, while you were watching I was watching it a second time, this time with the missus, and I found it even more instructive (I'm slower than you and the tech stuff), entertaining and disturbing than the first, having missed some of the more subtle points the first time. I agree that the focus group and home visit are outstanding scenes, and that the latter could have been filmed just as easily in West Virginia or western PA, as you noted.

BTW, Cumberbatch is outstanding, but he seems to play only brilliant, socially inept characters. Still, Mrs. PAC remains a self-admitted Cumberbitch.

[frank ryan]

On PAC's recommendation I watched this film... If y'all haven't seen it yet, it's worth watching.

The scene with Dominic Cummings and Zack Massingham walking in the park is one of the best and simplest depictions of how data was and can be used to influence elections. From what I have read Dominic Cummings now spends most of his time studying and talking about ML (Machine Learning). This will be a big tool in all future elections so I guess folks need to stop worrying and learn to love AI rather than wasting their money on focus groups (another great scene) and other dated crap they are still teaching in business schools. Much better data can be mined from online sources. Folks working in these fields (AI, ML, data mining, etc.) and companies like Cambridge Analytica are going to make a killing.

The other scene that stood out was that of the forgotten voters home visit. That definitely paralleled with the Drumpf campaign. You could have substituted a family from the rust belt and the conversation would have been about the same. (When will the dems finally admit they really screwed up with these voters and stop blaming the Russian hackers?) You would think the MPs would have grown a brain started paying attention to these forgotten voters but it seems that nothing has changed.

When will you admit that Hillary's campaign screwing up with some places they focused and Russia's influence operation were both factors in the outcome?

[Uncle Ted]

When will you admit that Hillary's campaign screwing up with some places they focused and Russia's influence operation were both factors in the outcome?

Oh yeah, the Russians spent like a $100K on facebook ads to influence our elections. It was a Yuge(!) factor in the outcome because they are light-years ahead of us when it comes to leveraging facebook data. They are clearly winning the cyberspace race.

How was that, Frank?

[wapiti]

When will you admit that Hillary's campaign screwing up with some places they focused and Russia's influence operation were both factors in the outcome?

Hillary's campaign cost over $1.1B. You're saying that a few bucks from the Russians were a factor? No matter how you slice it, Hillary spent over $500 million more than Trump.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/g...n-fundraising/

[PaloAltoCougar]

Ted, I'm still trying to understand the ways in which AI, ML, data mining, etc. can be used to manipulate an election. Are ad buys (in this case, apparently, only $100K worth) the only means by which one could use FB and other social media platforms to achieve the purported Russian objective of mucking up the U.S. electoral process? If the Russkies had, say, an unlimited number of hackers (whose costs wouldn't, of course, be known to us given that Putin is less than forthcoming about his counterintelligence budget), would their effectiveness be limited by the amount of dollars they were actually able to send to Menlo Park?

[Bo Diddley]

Ted, I'm still trying to understand the ways in which AI, ML, data mining, etc. can be used to manipulate an election. Are ad buys (in this case, apparently, only $100K worth) the only means by which one could use FB and other social media platforms to achieve the purported Russian objective of mucking up the U.S. electoral process? If the Russkies had, say, an unlimited number of hackers (whose costs wouldn't, of course, be known to us given that Putin is less than forthcoming about his counterintelligence budget), would their effectiveness be limited by the amount of dollars they were actually able to send to Menlo Park?

Russia doesn't have a ton of money, so what money they do spend, they need to make sure it counts. Hillary spending $1.2B likely bought a lot of inefficient spam.

[frank ryan]

Ted, I'm still trying to understand the ways in which AI, ML, data mining, etc. can be used to manipulate an election. Are ad buys (in this case, apparently, only $100K worth) the only means by which one could use FB and other social media platforms to achieve the purported Russian objective of mucking up the U.S. electoral process? If the Russkies had, say, an unlimited number of hackers (whose costs wouldn't, of course, be known to us given that Putin is less than forthcoming about his counterintelligence budget), would their effectiveness be limited by the amount of dollars they were actually able to send to Menlo Park?

Keep in mind it's likely there some sort, at the very least indirect coordination by CA and the Russians, ie CA coming up with precise demographics to targets and the Russians deploying their massive state-sponsored sock-puppet army with greater effect because of the info.

[Uncle Ted]

Ted, I'm still trying to understand the ways in which AI, ML, data mining, etc. can be used to manipulate an election. Are ad buys (in this case, apparently, only $100K worth) the only means by which one could use FB and other social media platforms to achieve the purported Russian objective of mucking up the U.S. electoral process? If the Russkies had, say, an unlimited number of hackers (whose costs wouldn't, of course, be known to us given that Putin is less than forthcoming about his counterintelligence budget), would their effectiveness be limited by the amount of dollars they were actually able to send to Menlo Park?

In the case of Brexit the inside hacker team for Leave.EU created an adaptive facebook survey that was very effective in figuring out what folks were thinking. To get people to take the survey they create a contest with some very attractive prize that was practically impossible to win. Brilliant! They most likely gathered some very valuable data on what triggers people the best about staying or leaving the EU. Not to mention the scene mentioned above where Zack Massingham mentions they (his algorithms) can figure out when someone is "falling out of love" with their partner just by their facebook postings... This is ML. You can train a machine to recognize this. Like Dominic Cummings I find ML fascinating. So does Apple given the amount of space the dedicated on the new A12 chip for the ML cores.

The stay in the EU team relied on focus groups. Too small and too slow. What a waste of money. The infighting of the focus group members in that scene was great.

Was this movie based on some book, BTW? I would like to read it.

An $100k of facebooks ads could go a long ways if they are amplified by facebook users reposting (or sharing) posts. In you can figure out what is on the facebook users minds then you can figure out what would trigger them the easiest to get them to share posts they see in their facebook news feed.

[PaloAltoCougar]

In the case of Brexit the inside hacker team for Leave.EU created an adaptive facebook survey that was very effective in figuring out what folks were thinking. To get people to take the survey they create a contest with some very attractive prize that was practically impossible to win. Brilliant! They most likely gathered some very valuable data on what triggers people the best about staying or leaving the EU. Not to mention the scene mentioned above where Zack Massingham mentions they (his algorithms) can figure out when someone is "falling out of love" with their partner just by their facebook postings... This is ML. You can train a machine to recognize this. Like Dominic Cummings I find ML fascinating. So does Apple given the amount of space the dedicated on the new A12 chip for the ML cores.

The stay in the EU team relied on focus groups. Too small and too slow. What a waste of money. The infighting of the focus group members in that scene was great.

Was this movie based on some book, BTW? I would like to read it.

An $100k of facebooks ads could go a long ways if they are amplified by facebook users reposting (or sharing) posts. In you can figure out what is on the facebook users minds then you can figure out what would trigger them the easiest to get them to share posts they see in their facebook news feed.

Thanks for that. I liked that one contest they ran that looked really attractive to sports types but the odds of winning were "about six trillion to one."

[Bo Diddley]

So Brexit happened yesterday. With how divided the UK is over it, I figured there would be a lot of people come out to celebrate or protest. Nope. It was pretty ho hum. There were maybe 200 people total at Parliment Square. I took a bunch of pictures I'll post later, but it was pretty disappointing.

[frank ryan]

What a stupid foreign policy move. There's a chance this completely wrecks the Irish Peace Process and GFA.