Should they stay or should they go: Brexit 2016

[Omaha 680]

At the risk of throwing up an airball thread, I wanted to get insights from some of the smarty pantses in the room on the upcoming U.K. vote to exit the E.U. The Brexit side appears to have the momentum right now, boosted by the latest terrorist attacks.

A vote for Brexit is a leap into the unknown. It would force the British government to renegotiate trade and investment relationships with other E.U. governments, which will make the bargaining as arduous as possible to discourage other members from leaving. That process will generate enough uncertainty to create serious problems for Britain’s growth. It would prove much more difficult for Britain to win access to European services markets, and E.U. leaders likely won’t allow London to remain the region’s financial center. Brexit also might give Scottish nationalists the argument they need to hold another vote on independence–and this time to win it.

http://time.com/4270362/how-brussels...&pcd=hp-magmod

Would a UK exit be as apocalyptic as people are predicting? Their economy would certainly suffer during the transition, but is that worse than the long term troubles facing the EU project?

[wuapinmon]

Spanish writer Antonio Muñoz Molina wrote an op-ed yesterday that I really enjoyed, and it contained this quote:

"lo que más me gusta de la idea de Europa es lo que otros ven como su mayor debilidad, o su defecto: que es completamente artificial; que no se basa en los lazos místicos de la sangre, ni en una lengua primigenia, ni en la leyenda de una comunidad originaria. Nadie se va a llevar la mano al corazón delante de una bandera europea, ni va a dejar que le corran lágrimas por la cara al escuchar su himno."

That translates, roughly, to:

"what I like most about the idea of Europe is what others see as its greatest weakness: that it is completely artificial; that it isn't based on mythic blood ties, nor on any primordial [unifying] language, nor on any legend of any orginal/orginating community. No one is going to raise his hand to his heart before the flag of Europe, neither is he going to let tears run down his face upon hearing its anthem."

http://cultura.elpais.com/cultura/20...44_814564.html

[I.J. Reilly]

Where's LeedsCoug when you need him?

[creekster]

Spanish writer Antonio Muñoz Molina wrote an op-ed yesterday that I really enjoyed, and it contained this quote:



That translates, roughly, to:

"what I like most about the idea of Europe is what others see as its greatest weakness: that it is completely artificial; that it isn't based on mythic blood ties, nor on any primordial [unifying] language, nor on any legend of any orginal/orginating community. No one is going to raise his hand to his heart before the flag of Europe, neither is he going to let tears run down his face upon hearing its anthem."

http://cultura.elpais.com/cultura/20...44_814564.html

How's your fever?

[creekster]

At the risk of throwing up an airball thread, I wanted to get insights from some of the smarty pantses in the room on the upcoming U.K. vote to exit the E.U. The Brexit side appears to have the momentum right now, boosted by the latest terrorist attacks.



http://time.com/4270362/how-brussels...&pcd=hp-magmod

Would a UK exit be as apocalyptic as people are predicting? Their economy would certainly suffer during the transition, but is that worse than the long term troubles facing the EU project?

I personally think it would be a mistake for them to leave, primarily for the financial reasons referenced in the quotation. Although I think it is a little amusing to suggest that the continent would just wish the importance of London's markets away becasue of the vote. Even so, I think the GB economy would be harmed by it.

[Omaha 680]

So is this really going to happen? I'm seeing polls reported that claim the "Leave" vote has opened up lead.

[Omaha 680]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...umes/86110136/

Two new polls suggest that support has swung back toward remaining in the European Union, as campaigning resumed Sunday after last week's slaying of British lawmaker Jo Cox.

A poll conducted Friday and Saturday by market research firm Survation for the Mail on Sunday said 45% of the respondents wanted to stay in the 28-member EU, and 42% wanted to leave.

A survey by YouGov for the Sunday Times conducted Thursday and Friday said 44% wanted to remain, and 43% wanted to leave.

Britons vote Thursday on a referendum about the United Kingdom's membership in the EU. Previous polls had put Brexit — Britain’s departure from the bloc — ahead of those favoring to remain in the EU.

The latest poll by Survation is the first since Cox, 41, a Labor Party member of Parliament, was shot and stabbed in the street Thursday after she met with constituents in the village of Birstall in West Yorkshire in northern England. The suspect, Thomas Mair, 52, was charged with her death and appeared in court Saturday.

[YOhio]

Money is still super heavy in support of the Stay faction.

http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum

[Omaha 680]

Bloomberg puts the chance of "Leave" at 37%. Their poll tracker has "Leave" up by 1.5 points today. You have to believe all the late deciders will swing to "Stay" though.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

[Bo Diddley]

Really without much of a dog in the fight, I really just want the dollar on par with the euro and the pound so it's cheaper to vacation there. I'm not sure how much the decision would change things long-term.

[Omaha 680]

Watching Sky News returns of the referendum. It reminds me of the Monty Python Election Night Special skit.

Remain is up 52% to 48% with about 1/4 of the counties reporting. I guess it's basically N Ireland, Scotland, and London for remain vs the rest of the country for leave.

Estimated over 70% turnout. Pretty impressive.

[frank ryan]

Watching Sky News returns of the referendum. It reminds me of the Monty Python Election Night Special skit.

Remain is up 52% to 48% with about 1/4 of the counties reporting. I guess it's basically N Ireland, Scotland, and London for remain vs the rest of the country for leave.

Estimated over 70% turnout. Pretty impressive.

Don't forget Gibraltar voted like 96% with remain. Spain has made some statements about invading should the UK leave the EU.

[Moliere]

I just tuned in and with over 7million votes cast the difference was less than 7,000 votes. That's crazy.


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[Commando]

Kinda hope they don't leave the EU. It would suck to have to go through customs just going from Dublin to Belfast.

[USUC]

This is pure entertainment on Twitter. All the UK journalists I follow are in the depths of despair. I assume Remain ekes it out, but this is fun.