Originally posted by SeattleUte
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The 6th Circuit (Mich, Ohio, Kentucky, Tenn) has already heard arguments about same-sex marriage and the court looks to be divided 2-1. The swing vote on the court is a pretty staunch conservative jurist, but one who is a bit unpredictable (he wrote the first opinion upholding Obamacare, for instance).
The Fifth Circuit (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi) has yet to hear argument, but when they do, they will have opinions coming in opposite directions - a federal judge in Texas invalidated SSM bans, while a judge in Louisiana upheld similar bans. This will be the first lower-court "split," and the 5th circuit has some conservative judges.
I think the best bet is the 11th Circuit (Fl, GA, Ala). The court is deeply conservative and has no problem being an outlier among federal courts. I don't know what the forecast is for a case coming up in that circuit.
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