The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Color Me Badd Fan]

This is surprising to me: Nate Silver, who I've always agreed with and wholeheartedly rely on his predictions, is saying that Donald Trump has a 33% chance of winning.

I'm quite surprised by that.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

[myboynoah]

This is surprising to me: Nate Silver, who I've always agreed with and wholeheartedly rely on his predictions, is saying that Donald Trump has a 33% chance of winning.

I'm quite surprised by that.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

I believe that is up from the mid 20s. Oh nooooooooooooooo.

[BlueK]

This is surprising to me: Nate Silver, who I've always agreed with and wholeheartedly rely on his predictions, is saying that Donald Trump has a 33% chance of winning.

I'm quite surprised by that.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

I'm not that familiar with his work, but I assume he looks at demographics. Trump's problem is his historically low approval for a major party nominee from most demo groups other than lower socioeconomic middle age and older white people, especially men. Most of those stats folks are having a really hard time seeing how anyone can win the presidency with only 30% of the female vote and close to 0% of the non-white vote or under age 35 vote.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I believe that is up from the mid 20s. Oh nooooooooooooooo.

Wow. 33% does not seem within the realm of probability to you? Let us know when to worry, will you?

[Topper]

Some people who vote for Trump clearly are intelligent.

Some people who vote for Hillary are clearly intelligent but emotionally misguided.

[Topper]

I'm not that familiar with his work, but I assume he looks at demographics. Trump's problem is his historically low approval for a major party nominee from most demo groups other than lower socioeconomic middle age and older white people, especially men. Most of those stats folks are having a really hard time seeing how anyone can win the presidency with only 30% of the female vote and close to 0% of the non-white vote or under age 35 vote.

Nate Silver made his name during the first Obama campaign is the statistician behind www.fivethirtyeight.com

[BlueK]

I think Pence for Trump is the same as choosing Bernie would be for Hillary. It's a choice showing obvious concern that the base won't hold together. Choosing Pence does little for picking up independents or democrats, but it does help with traditional type establishment republicans who are not happy about Trump being the nominee.

For Hillary to pick Bernie (or someone almost equally left wing like Warren) can only mean the same kind of concern on her side about keeping the Bernie folks in her camp and having the dems stay together. However, I don't think she's that concerned about that. I expect her to go middle of the road with someone respected by both sides. I don't have a name to throw out there, but she's going to make a pitch to moderate republicans and independents who are terrified of a Trump presidency. That's my prediction.

[falafel]

This is surprising to me: Nate Silver, who I've always agreed with and wholeheartedly rely on his predictions, is saying that Donald Trump has a 33% chance of winning.

I'm quite surprised by that.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

He was on NPR a little while ago, admitting that he totally screwed up his prior predictions regarding Trump. Outright ignored key statistical data which indicated Trump was doing very well and would continue to do well. He basically said he ignored the data because, in the majority of other cases, it wasn't a good predictor of success, but in Trump's case it was. I guess I won't be too surprised if he's still ignoring some of that data.

[YOhio]

Interesting to watch things morph in this thread. Over the past year we started out universally mocking the idea of Trump mounting a serious campaign. Then we shook our head as he kept picking up steam, and finally we watched in horror as he captured the nomination. But now the closer we get to the election, more and more posters are starting to argue how Hillary is either worse, or "just as bad" and we witness more and more Trump apologetics and even outright mocking of criticism of Trump. This is how it happens. This is how otherwise sane people do unthinkable things.

God help us, Trump may actually win.

Some of us (me, mbn, pelag, creekster, PAC and topper) have been consistent in our equal hatred of both and we all happen to think you're a bad guy for voting for Hillary.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I think Pence is a reasonably good pick by Trump, although Pence's past stands on gay rights and even abortion bother me somewhat. If I thought Trump was going to have a short lifespan [Note to Secret Service, this is not a threat], I'd consider voting for him. But alas, in a press release from Trump's doctor (which had to have been written by either Trump, John Miller or John Baron), we can be certain that Trump will be the healthiest individual ever elected to the Presidency, so this doesn't move the needle for me. Never Trump.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I think Pence is a reasonably good pick by Trump, although Pence's past stands on gay rights and even abortion bother me somewhat. If I thought Trump was going to have a short lifespan [Note to Secret Service, this is not a threat], I'd consider voting for him. But alas, in a press release from Trump's doctor (which had to have been written by either Trump, John Miller or John Baron), we can be certain that Trump will be the healthiest individual ever elected to the Presidency, so this doesn't move the needle for me. Never Trump.

Trump supposedly doesn't drink, let alone smoke. It sounds like he never has or at least quit after his brother died in the early 80s.

His father also lived to 93.

In contrast, Hillary is an ethanol enthusiast who has probably already had a couple strokes. On the other hand, her mother lived until she was 92.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Some of us (me, mbn, pelag, creekster, PAC and topper) have been consistent in our equal hatred of both and we all happen to think you're a bad guy for voting for Hillary.

Son, we live in a country that has laws, and those laws have to be guarded by men with balls. Who's gonna do it? You? MBN? BYU71? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for our party, and you curse Trump. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That a vote for Hillary, while tragic, probably saves lives. And my vote, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me in that voting booth, you need me in that booth. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent preventing something horrible. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a sharpie, and make a vote for Hillary sign. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Trump supposedly doesn't drink, let alone smoke. It sounds like he never has or at least quit after his brother died in the early 80s.

His father also lived to 93.

In contrast, Hillary is an ethanol enthusiast who has probably already had a couple strokes. On the other hand, her mother lived until she was 92.

Trump's no doubt healthy, but the "healthiest individual ever elected" stuff is laughably (and demonstrably) false. How can anyone know that, and why would a physician say such a thing? BTW, if Trump and W were to engage in a footrace of any distance (how about a 10K?), is there a single sentient being not named Trump that would bet on that bloviating Cheeto?

Oh, and I see that Pence favors a fence along the Mexican border. I think this idea is better than Trump's, if only because one is pretty much already there, is cheaper than a ridiculous 50-foot wall, and will be just as effective.

[YOhio]

Son, we live in a country that has laws, and those laws have to be guarded by men with balls. Who's gonna do it? You? MBN? BYU71? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for our party, and you curse Trump. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That a vote for Hillary, while tragic, probably saves lives. And my vote, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me in that voting booth, you need me in that booth. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent preventing something horrible. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a sharpie, and make a vote for Hillary sign. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.

Ha. Nice! I'll give you credit for both the clever post and being delusional enough to think you're doing something admirable by supporting Hillary.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Ha. Nice! I'll give you credit for both the clever post and being delusional enough to think you're doing something admirable by supporting Hillary.

Well it's pretty clear at this point that YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!