The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Maximus]

If you do the delegate math in the upcoming states that's not actually true unless yesterday changes some voting patterns. The way the math works out, if Cruz can win the WTA states of Indiana, Montana, S. Dakota and Nebraska, he only needs about 70 delegates to come from the states of CA (WTA by congrssional district), NJ, NM, WA, OR, WJ. CA has just enough conservative districts and enough delegates Cruz can win to make it possible to possibly take 70 of those in CA alone. Other states like WA, NM and OR are proportional, so he will take some of those. It's not over yet, which is exactly why Trump is still whining about unfairness.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/04/2...und-delegates/


In other words, 28 newly elected delegates in Pennsylvania are openly pro-Trump and another 10 have promised to support the winner of the popular vote in their congressional district last night, which was also Trump. Cruz’s big win in Wisconsin a few weeks ago netted him 36 delegates versus just six for Trump; Trump managed to more than offset that last night by beating Cruz 38/4 in the sort of delegate “invisible primary” where Cruz has been cleaning up in other states. That’s a big deal, as it means Trump is a bit closer to 1,237 than most forecasters expected him to be at this point. He also beat expectations in Maryland and Connecticut, where Kasich looked poised a few weeks ago to peel off a few districts. Instead Trump swept both states, netting 66 delegates in the process. Combine his wipeouts there with his surprising showing in the PA delegate races and suddenly Indiana isn’t really a must-win for him after all. It’s a must-win for Cruz, as Trump taking IN would add a few dozen more delegates to his total and give him a comfortable margin of error in California. But even if Cruz sweeps the state and takes all 57, Trump did well enough last night that he stands a fair chance of clinching before the convention anyway.

Mr. Trump could be as few as 270 delegates from the 1,237 he needs when all of Tuesday’s delegates have been awarded.

He’s a safe bet in New Jersey and West Virginia, though he might not win as many delegates as he hopes in West Virginia’s delegate selection primary. He’s nonetheless likely to win at least 70 from those two contests, and perhaps as many as 85.

He could win a further 40 delegates (or even more) from three states that award delegates proportionally: Washington, Oregon and New Mexico. He is likely to garner a healthy share of delegates in those states, whether he wins or not.

If instead Trump cleans up in NJ and WV — which is how I’d bet given his dominance in the mid-Atlantic last night — he’d need a mere 133. California alone has 172 delegates at stake and is winner-take-all by district; Trump leads in every poll there right now, and the last few polls have had him winning going away. It’s not implausible that he’ll take 133 or even 148 delegates from California alone, the sort of big blue state where he’s dominated so far, and clinch the nomination even if he gets nothing from Indiana. And if he does win Indiana, which would net him a minimum of 30 delegates, he’d barely need to break 100 in California to clinch before Cleveland. Before yesterday, next week’s vote in Indiana was set to be a decisive moment on the way to a brokered convention. If Cruz won the state, the CW went, Trump couldn’t realistically get to 1,237 with the delegates left on the board and we’d be set for a floor fight. Now what’s at stake in Indiana is simply making Trump sweat. If Cruz wins, he gets one last shot at stopping Trump somehow in California on June 7th. If Cruz loses, the race is effectively over.

[Omaha 680]

November is going to be a blood bath. Trump will lose in an epic landslide and take a lot of Republicans down ballot with him. Is there a politician more lucky than Hillary this year?

[Northwestcoug]

You're assuming the delegates legally bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot are actually real Trump supporters. That's not how the party awards delegate spots. That's what makes it so interesting if it goes to a second ballot. the GOP gives out delegate spots to the rank and file who care enough to volunteer time and money to the party over many years of service. The candidates themselves don't get to pick out their own delegates. It's just that they have to vote for a certain candidate on the first ballot based on the primary results. But after that they can vote for whoever they want, and the type of people who tend to be chosen to be delegates at the state convention level tend not to be Trump type people.

I fully understand the difference between the first and second ballot. My one assumption is this: the GOP doesn't want a spectacle at the convention. They don't want delegates walking off in protest for the whole world to see. They want to project unity. I'm sure this will be the implicit message should the vote come to a second ballot. Which I honestly do not think will happen. I think with the momentum he just gained in the northeast (and let's face it, he did better than what most people assumed), he will win Indiana and California.

[Uncle Ted]

even if cruz wins indiana, still very likely trump wins it all

Yep, the time has come to admit that Republican voters want Donald Trump as their nominee.

[BlueK]

Yep, the time has come to admit that Republican voters want Donald Trump as their nominee.

I tend to feel more like this guy:

With my friends and family who still cling to Trump, I never waver from my insistence, directly and firmly, that they are making a terrible mistake, and that Trump is making them worse people for being involved in his message. I still love them, and they still love me. (I think.)

Trump’s various rants, by contrast, do not amount to policies. They are ignorant tone poems, bad haikus, streams of words whose content has no real meaning. They’re not positions available either to the GOP or Democrats, because they do not contain a vision of the future over which those parties can fight.

In fact, Trump’s policies are not policies. They’re just feverish revenge fantasies. Trump, a scam artist whose entire career has been based on victimizing the working class, should be the target of that anger. Instead, he is encouraging Americans to turn their hostility away from him and against their fellow citizens, inviting us into a war of all against all over which he will preside as an amused dictator.

http://thefederalist.com/2016/04/26/...rump-so-be-it/

[Eddie]

...The party will be fractured no matter what happens in the next couple of years. With Trump as nominee, moderates will leave in droves. With anyone but Trump as nominee, Trump supporters will leave in droves. Better to let the GOP burn now. Give Trump his due by nominating him. If the GOP is smart (try not to laugh), they will get their act together after Hillary wins easily, and hopefully promote sane people as candidates in the future.

If the GOP is done either way - do they really want to burn the place down by nominating Trump? I think nominating Trump does enough damage to the core that it would take a LONG time to repair the damage. Honestly, they might be better off starting a 3rd party than trying to rehabilitate the GOP.

I fully understand the difference between the first and second ballot. My one assumption is this: the GOP doesn't want a spectacle at the convention. They don't want delegates walking off in protest for the whole world to see. They want to project unity. I'm sure this will be the implicit message should the vote come to a second ballot. Which I honestly do not think will happen. I think with the momentum he just gained in the northeast (and let's face it, he did better than what most people assumed), he will win Indiana and California.

I think if the GOP decides they want to project unity for Trump, then they've decided they want to remain irrelevant for years to come. They've decided that they're OK not winning now, and not winning next time either. They are OK being the party that is so polarizing that they don't mind losing their sane members. They'd rather have a small passionate group of supporters that will never win anything than a large base that doesn't always agree but represents a large voting mass that can come together for the sake of what's most important.

This election determines whether the GOP turns into a party that might still win its share of local and state elections, but is done on a national level - or a party that is still relevant nationally.

[Northwestcoug]

If the GOP is done either way - do they really want to burn the place down by nominating Trump? I think nominating Trump does enough damage to the core that it would take a LONG time to repair the damage. Honestly, they might be better off starting a 3rd party than trying to rehabilitate the GOP.



I think if the GOP decides they want to project unity for Trump, then they've decided they want to remain irrelevant for years to come. They've decided that they're OK not winning now, and not winning next time either. They are OK being the party that is so polarizing that they don't mind losing their sane members. They'd rather have a small passionate group of supporters that will never win anything than a large base that doesn't always agree but represents a large voting mass that can come together for the sake of what's most important.

This election determines whether the GOP turns into a party that might still win its share of local and state elections, but is done on a national level - or a party that is still relevant nationally.

I'd argue that if the anyone but Trump nominee is Cruz, they will also be irrelevant nationally. Outside of his fan base of constitutionalists and evangelicals, he appeals to no one. He will do worse than Romney did.

I can't believe that the choice has become Trump or Cruz. Burn, baby, burn.

[creekster]

Cruz picks Carly fiorina.

[YOhio]

Cruz picks Carly fiorina.

Lol. That should turn it for him.

One of the things I resent most about Trump is that I've given a thought or two to supporting Cruz. Still won't though. F*** 'em all I'm voting third party.

[old_gregg]

bros i am officially off the cruz train

[Northwestcoug]

Lol. That should turn it for him.

One of the things I resent most about Trump is that I've given a thought or two to supporting Cruz. Still won't though. F*** 'em all I'm voting third party.

Your transformation is almost complete. Vote for Hillary, and persuade all other like-minded people to do the same. Despite UT's protestations, the libertarian party is kinda wacko. If you want the republican party to fundamentally change, vote for the person every red-blooded conservative hates more than anyone. Vote her in a landslide, and show the GOP how serious you are about your vote. Then watch how careful the GOP vets and promotes future candidates.

[Commando]

I officially don't care that much anymore. I guess I'll vote Hillary if I can be bothered to head out. Sure Trump has said the most terrible shit ever but I'm guessing that was a war room strategy based on how he's smoking the others and how none of that matches any of his previous stated beliefs, behaviors, or political stances. If he can Axle Rose snake dance his way to the center for the general election and convince people he was just messing around before with all the xenophobia and idiocy, I'll be pretty fascinated to see how many people will talk themselves into forgiving him for all the previous atrociousness, and how many current Trump-supporting-shitheads jump off the bandwagon once he simmers down.

[Eddie]

If Trump and Hillary are the nominees, I hope that Hillary wins in an election with super high turnout, but in which there are a ton of people who don't cast ballots in the presidential election.

I'd love for the republicans to know that if they could've found someone with even half a brain, the election was theirs to lose. And I'd like the Democrats to know that no one was really voting FOR Hillary. They just threw enough votes her way for her to win out of concern that Trump might actually win.

Both parties need to come away knowing that we have higher expectations. They can do better. I fear that the Democrats are going to come away believing that the US population loves them and Hillary, and no one gives a hoot about all of her skeletons or flaws. Because she is going to win in a landslide.

[YOhio]

Your transformation is almost complete. Vote for Hillary, and persuade all other like-minded people to do the same. Despite UT's protestations, the libertarian party is kinda wacko. If you want the republican party to fundamentally change, vote for the person every red-blooded conservative hates more than anyone. Vote her in a landslide, and show the GOP how serious you are about your vote. Then watch how careful the GOP vets and promotes future candidates.

Hillary is every bit as bad as Trump. Her careless handling of classified information is absolutely and unequivocally disqualifying, if not criminal. She's absolutely subject to blackmail from foreign actors who hacked her server and is a national security risk. Add that to the reality that the IC loathes and resents her because she's publicly done something that would get a rookie analyst banned from government work and probably jailed. Lost in that is how she kept a private server just to avoid FOIA requirements.

She was an awful Secretary of State. There isn't a country where the relationship was significantly strengthened after her four years, which was an impressive feat considering America's standing after Bush's second term.

I think she's more dishonest than her husband and as shady as Nixon. While Trump is delusional and dishonest, she's deeply corrupt and dishonest. She's so incredibly unappealing as a person and a candidate that a useless old white man socialist is giving her a run for her money.

Though I'm a fervent #nevertrump, I'm equally committed to #neverhillary. Both of them can eat shit and I resent the hell out of both parties for enabling these assholes. Here's the thing. I still stand firm that she won't ever be President of the United States. I could well be in denial, but if there ever was a chance for a third party candidate to rise it's now.

[falafel]

Though I'm a fervent #nevertrump, I'm equally committed to #neverhillary. Both of them can eat shit and I resent the hell out of both parties for enabling these assholes. Here's the thing. I still stand firm that she won't ever be President of the United States. I could well be in denial, but if there ever was a chance for a third party candidate to rise it's now.

I agree, but as far as I can tell, absolutely no one of significance is making any kind of serious third-party run, and time is virtually gone to do so. Who is there that could actually make a serious third-party run at the White House? I can't think of anyone.