The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Uncle Ted]

Lyin' Ted is going to announce his running mate already...

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will announce on Wednesday afternoon that former presidential rival Carly Fiorina has agreed to be his running mate should he win the GOP presidential nomination.

Sources confirmed to WMUR political director Josh McElveen and political reporter John DiStaso that Fiorina, who has been a supporter of Cruz for several weeks, will be the focus of the announcement that Cruz intends to make in Indiana Wednesday afternoon.
[...]

http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-fi...source=dlvr.it


Maybe Drumpf will counter Ted by announcing that Sarah Palin will be his running mate.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Maybe Drumpf will counter Ted by announcing that Sarah Palin will be his running mate.

That would be the perfect ticket. Trump and Palin.

[Maximus]

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[Eddie]

This morning I was flipping radio stations during the drive in - it's always interesting to hear what Beck, Ingram, etc have to say about the election.

Anyway - Beck was quoting some polling data that shows that Trump would lose 75+% of the Hispanic voters and 60-70% of the millennial voters in any election. Those are general population numbers, but even among registered republicans, most in those two demographics are saying they would vote for a dem over Trump.

Trump has no shot. Never had a shot, really. The GOP is done if they nominate him.

[Commando]

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Is that a Jeopardy question? If she said that about anything that came out of Trump's fur hole, her status as Resident F*cking Nut is official.

[Uncle Ted]

That would be the perfect ticket. Trump and Palin.

http://trumppalin2016.com

[Northwestcoug]

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Hard to imagine there was ever a time when Coulter was taken seriously.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

PJ O'Rourke thinks Ann Coulter is his only real competition in the conservative humorist area. Up until Trump, he thought she was kind of in on the joke.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Hard to imagine there was ever a time when Coulter was taken seriously.

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[Color Me Badd Fan]

The timing of these northeast primaries has been crushing to the Cruz campaign. It's providing an air of inevitability to Trump. After Wisconsin, it looked like Cruz and Kasich were going to pull it off and deny Trump the nomination. Now, not so much. If Cruz loses Indiana, then this thing is over.

Just think about the fact that it's Hillary vs. Trump. How did this happen? I've mentioned this probably a dozen times and admittedly I thought this in 2012, but we're due for a one term president.

[BlueK]

The timing of these northeast primaries has been crushing to the Cruz campaign. It's providing an air of inevitability to Trump. After Wisconsin, it looked like Cruz and Kasich were going to pull it off and deny Trump the nomination. Now, not so much. If Cruz loses Indiana, then this thing is over.

Just think about the fact that it's Hillary vs. Trump. How did this happen? I've mentioned this probably a dozen times and admittedly I thought this in 2012, but we're due for a one term president.

But if Cruz wins Indiana the talk will revert back to Trump probably not getting to 50% of the delegates. The polling there has been close. With Kasich saying he's not going to campaign in Indiana anymore it's kind of up for grabs I think. It never was very close in the states that just voted yesterday. And there are some states coming up where Cruz will thump Trump and get all or most of the delegates (Nebraska, S. Dakota, Montana, possibly New Mexico) and most of the rest (NJ the main exception) being states where Cruz should win at least enough of the delegates to cause Trump trouble with getting to 1237.

[Maximus]

The timing of these northeast primaries has been crushing to the Cruz campaign. It's providing an air of inevitability to Trump. After Wisconsin, it looked like Cruz and Kasich were going to pull it off and deny Trump the nomination. Now, not so much. If Cruz loses Indiana, then this thing is over.

Just think about the fact that it's Hillary vs. Trump. How did this happen? I've mentioned this probably a dozen times and admittedly I thought this in 2012, but we're due for a one term president.

even if cruz wins indiana, still very likely trump wins it all

[BlueK]

even if cruz wins indiana, still very likely trump wins it all

If you do the delegate math in the upcoming states that's not actually true unless yesterday changes some voting patterns. The way the math works out, if Cruz can win the WTA states of Indiana, Montana, S. Dakota and Nebraska, he only needs about 70 delegates to come from the states of CA (WTA by congrssional district), NJ, NM, WA, OR, WJ. CA has just enough conservative districts and enough delegates Cruz can win to make it possible to possibly take 70 of those in CA alone. Other states like WA, NM and OR are proportional, so he will take some of those. It's not over yet, which is exactly why Trump is still whining about unfairness.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

[Northwestcoug]

even if cruz wins indiana, still very likely trump wins it all

This. I still chuckle at people who are betting against Trump with their grand schemes of denying him the nomination at the convention, then hoping against hope that after a primary ballot anyone but Trump will secure the nomination, with an intact GOP uniting behind this political savior.

I would bet that Trump secures the nomination before the convention. Even if he doesn't, I think it's decent odds that he wins a contested nomination. Is the GOP really ready to face down the motivated Trump delegates who have given Trump a nearly 2 to 1 lead in delegate counts? Do they want the bloodbath that would ensue? I doubt it. Their hatred of Hillary will motivate them to unite, and right now Trump is the de facto leader. The writing has been on the wall for the last couple of months.

A lot of this is pointless, IMO. The party will be fractured no matter what happens in the next couple of years. With Trump as nominee, moderates will leave in droves. With anyone but Trump as nominee, Trump supporters will leave in droves. Better to let the GOP burn now. Give Trump his due by nominating him. If the GOP is smart (try not to laugh), they will get their act together after Hillary wins easily, and hopefully promote sane people as candidates in the future.

[BlueK]

This. I still chuckle at people who are betting against Trump with their grand schemes of denying him the nomination at the convention, then hoping against hope that after a primary ballot anyone but Trump will secure the nomination, with an intact GOP uniting behind this political savior.

I would bet that Trump secures the nomination before the convention. Even if he doesn't, I think it's decent odds that he wins a contested nomination. Is the GOP really ready to face down the motivated Trump delegates who have given Trump a nearly 2 to 1 lead in delegate counts? Do they want the bloodbath that would ensue? I doubt it. Their hatred of Hillary will motivate them to unite, and right now Trump is the de facto leader. The writing has been on the wall for the last couple of months.

A lot of this is pointless, IMO. The party will be fractured no matter what happens in the next couple of years. With Trump as nominee, moderates will leave in droves. With anyone but Trump as nominee, Trump supporters will leave in droves. Better to let the GOP burn now. Give Trump his due by nominating him. If the GOP is smart (try not to laugh), they will get their act together after Hillary wins easily, and hopefully promote sane people as candidates in the future.

You're assuming the delegates legally bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot are actually real Trump supporters. That's not how the party awards delegate spots. That's what makes it so interesting if it goes to a second ballot. the GOP gives out delegate spots to the rank and file who care enough to volunteer time and money to the party over many years of service. The candidates themselves don't get to pick out their own delegates. It's just that they have to vote for a certain candidate on the first ballot based on the primary results. But after that they can vote for whoever they want, and the type of people who tend to be chosen to be delegates at the state convention level tend not to be Trump type people.