The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[BlueK]

Just do the math, but if Cruz wins what for him are the very winnable and winner take all states of S. Dakota, Nebraska, Montana and Indiana, Trump is going to fall short even if he wins every single remaining delegate in the other states, which is also not likely. These states are all very similar to the type of states (conservative, western/midwestern) where Cruz has usually hammered Trump in. Cruz will also most likely take some delegates in CA because they do it by congressional district where he will focus on the ones he can win. It's going to be a contested convention.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

[Uncle Ted]

If Cruz wins what for him are the very winnable states of S. Dakota, Nebraska, Montana and Indiana, Trump is going to fall short even if he wins every single remaining delegate in the other states. Not likely. We're going to a contested convention.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

Yeah, even after the beating Cruz is going to take in NY. Cruz should just write-off NY now and never go back.

And if Drumpf doesn't win it on the first ballot then he most likely will not be the republican candidate. The question for the republican delegates is who they will pick. Cruz could come close to beating Hillary but not likely. Of course, one of many her scandals could catch up to her and Cruz (or maybe even the Libertarian ) could then walk into the white house. The republican delegates might be better off picking Kasich with a brokered deal (Cruz as a running mate and Drumpf on the cabinet as Chief Dumbass?).

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Yeah, even after the beating Cruz is going to take in NY. Cruz should just write-off NY now and never go back.

And if Drumpf doesn't win it on the first ballot then he most likely will not be the republican candidate. The question for the republican delegates is who they will pick. Cruz could come close to beating Hillary but not likely. Of course, one of many her scandals could catch up to her and Cruz (or maybe even the Libertarian ) could then walk into the white house. The republican delegates might be better off picking Kasich with a brokered deal (Cruz as a running mate and Drumpf on the cabinet as Chief Dumbass?).

Cruz has been loading the deck in his favor as far as the actual delegates and who they would pick on the second ballot. If it's not Trump on the first ballot then it's likely to be Cruz. I can't imagine them going to another candidate that didn't run or get a decent level of support. And no, I don't think Kasich has received enough support.

Cruz has run an impressive campaign

[Pelado]

In the Arizona and Utah contests, held after some but not all of these events, there was a split verdict on Drumpf. He won Arizona, where his harsh anti-immigration message is popular among Republicans, and lost Utah, where Mormons acted like the Republican Party’s designated drivers by resoundingly rejecting Drumpf. Utah allowed the anti-Drumpf movement a brief respite: the race may have been over had Drumpf won there.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/how-donald-trump-wasted-his-spring-break?intcid=mod-latest

[BlueK]

Cruz has been loading the deck in his favor as far as the actual delegates and who they would pick on the second ballot. If it's not Trump on the first ballot then it's likely to be Cruz. I can't imagine them going to another candidate that didn't run or get a decent level of support. And no, I don't think Kasich has received enough support.

Cruz has run an impressive campaign

And even with Trump probably winning NY, Cruz can still be a thorn in Trump's side there by peeling away some of the delegates. They do it by congressional district. The way NY works, in each of the 27 congressional districts, if Cruz can keep Trump below 50% and if he can get to 20%, he gets at least one delegate there.

In NY Cruz is being pretty savvy about focusing on democrat districts like the Bronx where there are very few registered republicans. By only having to get a small number of people to vote for him over Trump in those districts, he could wind up with a good number of delegates. I believe the only caveat to that is that he would also need to keep Trump just below 50% of the statewide total for this strategy to work, but with polls showing Trump at 52%, it seem he could probably move the needle just a couple of points by April 19th.

[Omaha 680]

Yeah, we should totally nominate this guy. In this year of all years. Against someone under federal investigation or a lifelong committed socialist with no real-world experience or accomplishments. Yes, let's nominate Trump.

For Americans of nearly every race, gender, political persuasion and location, disdain for Donald Trump runs deep, saddling the Republican front-runner with unprecedented unpopularity as he tries to overcome recent campaign setbacks.

Seven in 10 people, including close to half of Republican voters, have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It’s an opinion shared by majorities of men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, Hispanics and blacks — a devastatingly broad indictment of the billionaire businessman.

Even in the South, a region where Trump has won GOP primaries decisively, close to 70 percent view him unfavorably. And among whites without a college education, one of Trump’s most loyal voting blocs, 55 percent have a negative opinion.

More than 60 percent of all registered voters and 31 percent of Republicans said they definitely would not vote for Trump in the general election.

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/featured/ap-gfk-poll-americans-overwhelmingly-view-trump-negatively

He can totally win with an absolute ceiling of <40% of the electorate, right?

[BlueK]

Yeah, we should totally nominate this guy. In this year of all years. Against someone under federal investigation or a lifelong committed socialist with no real-world experience or accomplishments. Yes, let's nominate Trump.

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/featured/ap-gfk-poll-americans-overwhelmingly-view-trump-negatively

He can totally win with an absolute ceiling of <40% of the electorate, right?

Well, there is one talent Trump seems to have. And he has this in common with most other fascists in history. He has a way of getting a large portion of the people and the press to believe that his 35% support really equals a huge mandate from the public to take over the country.

[BlueK]

http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-...cid=mod-latest

It seems this is where all of Trump's nonsense finally caught up to him. Funny how the Utah vote came right in the middle of it. The article makes it sound like the Utah vote was a reaction to more recent events, but the truth is the Trumpster never had a chance in Utah anyway. The timing of it is interesting though.

[Uncle Ted]

Cruz has been loading the deck in his favor as far as the actual delegates and who they would pick on the second ballot. If it's not Trump on the first ballot then it's likely to be Cruz. I can't imagine them going to another candidate that didn't run or get a decent level of support. And no, I don't think Kasich has received enough support.

Cruz has run an impressive campaign

Drumpf is trying the same tricks as Lyin' Cruz... but he is a little late:

Trump team tells supporters to sign up to be delegates 2 days late


Donald Trump’s team is encouraging its supporters in Washington state to sign up to be a potential Trump delegate. The only problem: The campaign's local crew sent its email on Friday — two days after the filing deadline to appear on the printed ballot in Saturday's conventions and caucuses.


The email, headlined "invitation," encouraged supporters to submit their Declaration of Candidacy for Delegate form. But the very next sentence says the filing deadline was Wednesday.


“You can still be elected as a Trump Delegate at your GOP County Convention this Saturday!” the April 8 email, which was obtained by POLITICO, says. “If you have submitted a Declaration of Candidacy for Delegate form to your GOP County Chairman by the assigned deadline of 10:00am on April 6th."


While it appears the Trump campaign dropped the ball on the deadline to appear on the printed ballot, the billionaire's supporters can still try their hand at being nominated from the floor.
[...]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-g...es-late-221725

What is Drumpf thinking? He's a billionaire. He should just throw some money at the delegates to get them to vote for him. If I was a delegate I would totally go to the Drumpf parties in Ohio. I am sure they will be much better than the lame Cruz ones.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

So Wisconsin and Utah are the reasons why Trump is reeling right now. Then you look at the other states that went for any other candidate than Trump, other than Ohio and Texas that went for their homestate candidates. Basically Iowa, Maine, Kansas, Idaho, Oklahoma, Kansas, etc. Cruz gets a tie with him in a few states like Missouri and North Carolina.

Trump does his best in the populated northeast (but not Maine) and in the Southeast and then in Nevada and Arizona. Then he does terribly in the inter-mountain west and the midwest and northern midwest (other than Illinois). If you had to break it down, it appears as if Trump does his best in the deep South, states with large urban populations and states with larger than average recent immigrant populations (Arizona and Nevada). Cruz (and Rubio in Minnesota) does well in states where the urban areas don't contain the majority of the population or the GOP voters aren't predominantly a bunch of Deliverance cast members.

So who's to blame here for Trump -- those damn Scotch-Irish all over the deep South and the Northeast? The English, Germans and Scandinavians are going for Cruz.

In all seriousness, in the states where the GOP's voters come primarily from the middle, upper middle and upper classes, then Cruz typically does well. The hillbilly factor in the South and the "Sully and Murph" factor in the Northeast seem to be driving Trump.

[Jeff Lebowski]

So Wisconsin and Utah are the reasons why Trump is reeling right now. Then you look at the other states that went for any other candidate than Trump, other than Ohio and Texas that went for their homestate candidates. Basically Iowa, Maine, Kansas, Idaho, Oklahoma, Kansas, etc. Cruz gets a tie with him in a few states like Missouri and North Carolina.

Trump does his best in the populated northeast (but not Maine) and in the Southeast and then in Nevada and Arizona. Then he does terribly in the inter-mountain west and the midwest and northern midwest (other than Illinois). If you had to break it down, it appears as if Trump does his best in the deep South, states with large urban populations and states with larger than average recent immigrant populations (Arizona and Nevada). Cruz (and Rubio in Minnesota) does well in states where the urban areas don't contain the majority of the population or the GOP voters aren't predominantly a bunch of Deliverance cast members.

So who's to blame here for Trump -- those damn Scotch-Irish all over the deep South and the Northeast? The English, Germans and Scandinavians are going for Cruz.

In all seriousness, in the states where the GOP's voters come primarily from the middle, upper middle and upper classes, then Cruz typically does well. The hillbilly factor in the South and the "Sully and Murph" factor in the Northeast seem to be driving Trump.

God bless Utah. Proud of my home state.

[Uncle Ted]

God bless Utah. Proud of my home state.

Yep... you can never go wrong voting for a Canadian Texan. I am not sure about the Utah dems voting for that socialist, however. What the hell were y'all thinking?

[Eddie]

Yep... you can never go wrong voting for a Canadian Texan. I am not sure about the Utah dems voting for that socialist, however. What the hell were y'all thinking?

Utah voted for Cruz because he isn't Trump.

They voted for Sanders because he isn't Hillary.

No one in Utah voted FOR someone. They all voted AGAINST someone.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Yep... you can never go wrong voting for a Canadian Texan. I am not sure about the Utah dems voting for that socialist, however. What the hell were y'all thinking?

Cruz is an awful candidate. But he is better than Trump. Of course, my neighbor's dog is better than Trump.

[Uncle Ted]

Cruz is an awful candidate. But he is better than Trump. Of course, my neighbor's dog is better than Trump.

How's the neighbor's dog rank compared to Cruz?