The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[YOhio]

Ohio is out of timeout. Trump and Cruz can S a D.

[Omaha 680]

I have never wanted to believe campaign spin more than I do right now:

John Kasich's campaign has put out a statement saying it is "resetting the race" with Kasich's victory in Ohio. The memo says Rubio voters will break for him 3:1 and he is the best candidate to beat Hillary Clinton.

"With a narrowing field, Gov. Kasich is the candidate best positioned to go toe-to-toe in the remaining states. Our internal data shows that Rubio voters break to Gov. Kasich by a 3:1 margin...with the electoral map shifting significantly in our favor, Gov. Kasich is positioned to accumulate a large share of the almost 1,000 remaining delegates and enter Cleveland in strong position to become the nominee."

"Of the 3 remaining viable candidates, only Gov. Kasich will defeat Hillary Clinton in an Electoral College landslide, sweeping in Republicans from the courthouse to the Senate. The other candidates would lose to Hillary Clinton in dramatic fashion and cost us seats in down-ballot races from California to Maine," the memo says.

[Northwestcoug]

I have never wanted to believe campaign spin more than I do right now:

I like Kasich, but that last paragraph is laughable. How's he gonna ride an electoral college landslide without the republican base voting for him?

[byu71]

I have never wanted to believe campaign spin more than I do right now:

If only. One person I could happily vote for. 1 no way would I ever vote for. 2 I think I would do a write in. Maybe I would vote for against the one I never, ever could

[Omaha 680]

I like Kasich, but that last paragraph is laughable. How's he gonna ride an electoral college landslide without the republican base voting for him?

I actually think that last part is the most believable but I guess it all depends on your definition of landslide. Independents would break overwhelmingly for Kasich over HRC or Bernie. And I think there is a good number of moderate democrats who would take him over HRC as well. Who knows how many Trump voters would refuse to support Kasich. Probably a lot, but it would be in mostly bright red states. How many of those will flip to D because trump supporters wouldn't vote Kasich? Maybe some, but Kasich putting states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania back in play for the republican ticket would more than make up for it.

But it's all fantasy talk because I don't see Kasich getting the nomination. Best case scenario is Cruz at this point unfortunately.

[USUC]

Even if Kasich won every single delegate moving forward he still wouldn't pass the nomination threshold. Cruz could but the math still makes it highly unlikely. Trump obviously had the best chance but their aren't many winner takes all states moving forward. Now that the South is lot of the way, Trump won't be as dominant. This thing is headed to a contested convention.

[pelagius]

Well, it was a good run. I've identified as a Republican for a long time. I suppose I will still do the Caucus next week, but I'm out. Vichy Republicans, the party is yours.

[Topper]

Well, it was a good run. I've identified as a Republican for a long time. I suppose I will still do the Caucus next week, but I'm out. Vichy Republicans, the party is yours.

Some friend you are. You abandon in an hour of need?

Don't go to the dark side. The Libertarians are your friend. You will still be clean and can go to bed with a clean conscience.

[pelagius]

Some friend you are. You abandon in an hour of need?

Don't go to the dark side. The Libertarians are your friend. You will still be clean and can go to bed with a clean conscience.

Hour of need? It's over; the authoritarian/nativist/protectionist/while-male resentment wing of the party will almost surely win. And the rest of the probability mass is the French revolution wing of the party that wants to enforce ideological purity (e.g., shutdown the government or not raise the debt ceiling to maintain purity). Off with the head of anyone non-pure.

I'm not a libertarian.

[Northwestcoug]

Well, it was a good run. I've identified as a Republican for a long time. I suppose I will still do the Caucus next week, but I'm out. Vichy Republicans, the party is yours.

I like the cut of your jib. I will be joining you in your exodus.

[Uncle Ted]

Well, it was a good run. I've identified as a Republican for a long time. I suppose I will still do the Caucus next week, but I'm out. Vichy Republicans, the party is yours.

Welcome to the Libertarian party!

[Uncle Ted]

Some friend you are. You abandon in an hour of need?

Don't go to the dark side. The Libertarians are your friend. You will still be clean and can go to bed with a clean conscience.

[pelagius]

Welcome to the Libertarian party!

I will be an independent in the short-run. I will mostly vote over being not racist, not protectionist, and foreign policy issues.

[USUC]

Well, it was a good run. I've identified as a Republican for a long time. I suppose I will still do the Caucus next week, but I'm out. Vichy Republicans, the party is yours.

Out of curiosity, what does the Republican Party you would prefer look like? Like Ted and Topper, I identify as a libertarian. I don't believe the Republican Party will ever be the libertarian (small L) party I hope it would become. But I do hope that at the least the GOP becomes the party that emphasizes fiscal conservatism instead of social conservatism and that is less willing to go to war. Social conservatism will never fully leave the party, but I really wish they would be a little more open minded than they currently are. I don't necessarily mind a foreign policy that is active in the affairs of the world, but I would prefer that influence to be the result of smart and shrewd diplomacy, not just rushing to war.

Trump is the harbinger of death for the GOP. At this point the party is destroyed even if Trump does not get the nomination. After this election (which I think HRC wins), then Trump and those in positions of leadership that backed him will be essentially expunged from the party. Their political careers will be done. History will not look at this time kindly. BUt out of the destruction there is hope that a smarter, more philosophically robust Republican party will emerge. My hope is that the new leaders of the party will be the Rand Pauls, the Justin Amash's, the Thomas Massies, and the Jeff Flakes.

[Northwestcoug]

I actually think that last part is the most believable but I guess it all depends on your definition of landslide. Independents would break overwhelmingly for Kasich over HRC or Bernie. And I think there is a good number of moderate democrats who would take him over HRC as well. Who knows how many Trump voters would refuse to support Kasich. Probably a lot, but it would be in mostly bright red states. How many of those will flip to D because trump supporters wouldn't vote Kasich? Maybe some, but Kasich putting states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania back in play for the republican ticket would more than make up for it.

But it's all fantasy talk because I don't see Kasich getting the nomination. Best case scenario is Cruz at this point unfortunately.

I think in any election other than this, a sizable contingent of independents could sway a Katich win over Clinton, if he were to end up as the nominee. But this election is like no other. The populist movement on the right is huge. I really think it's just a big 'eff you' to the republican establishment. Doesn't matter if it isn't traditional conservative; the Trump phenomenon is just a protest vote now. I doubt if their man were to lose the nomination that they would show up on election day to support someone who embodies everything they are protesting against.