The 2012 Republican Primary thread, early edition

[calicoug]

You said much more eloquently what I tried to say.

FTR, why do you say no one wants to nominate Romney? He's been the leader for a long time and being the leader tells me people want to nominate him.

I didn't say "no one," I said the base- and they tend to be the ones that decide primaries. Mitt is struggling to get a coalition of voters who will support him in the primary. He lacks a natural constituency, in large part because he spent so much of the 2008 election running as a social conservative instead of an economic one. Social policies are his weakness and he compounded them by changing his position on virtually every one of them to cater to the base. He assumed the base was stupid and would buy it. They didn't.

Now Mitt is doing his best to set himself up as the economic conservative, but at a time when everyone is talking about economics. Quick- name the most recognizable economics plan offered by conservatives. I'd bet you named either 9-9-9 or Ryan's Roadmap. That's a problem for Mitt.

Timing is also an issue for Mitt. The first caucus is in Iowa. He won't win. Then NH. He probably will win there. Then SC. Probably lose. Then Florida. Maybe win, maybe lose. Then Michigan. Possibly lose because of his stance on automobile companies from his WSJ op-ed- despite his connection to Michigan. He has a tough road.

Passion is yet another problem. Voters who support Mitt aren't passionate about Mitt. Polls tell us that, but so does the fact that conservatives are doing just about everything they can to get someone- anyone- else to run. Christie. Ryan. Palin. Conservatives aren't sure who they want to win, but they are pretty sure it isn't Romney. They might eventually float back to Romney, but it will be a grudging vote, and that's not a good sign for a candidacy just 12 months from election day.

[creekster]

I didn't say "no one," I said the base- and they tend to be the ones that decide primaries. Mitt is struggling to get a coalition of voters who will support him in the primary. He lacks a natural constituency, in large part because he spent so much of the 2008 election running as a social conservative instead of an economic one. Social policies are his weakness and he compounded them by changing his position on virtually every one of them to cater to the base. He assumed the base was stupid and would buy it. They didn't.

Now Mitt is doing his best to set himself up as the economic conservative, but at a time when everyone is talking about economics. Quick- name the most recognizable economics plan offered by conservatives. I'd bet you named either 9-9-9 or Ryan's Roadmap. That's a problem for Mitt.

Timing is also an issue for Mitt. The first caucus is in Iowa. He won't win. Then NH. He probably will win there. Then SC. Probably lose. Then Florida. Maybe win, maybe lose. Then Michigan. Possibly lose because of his stance on automobile companies from his WSJ op-ed- despite his connection to Michigan. He has a tough road.

Passion is yet another problem. Voters who support Mitt aren't passionate about Mitt. Polls tell us that, but so does the fact that conservatives are doing just about everything they can to get someone- anyone- else to run. Christie. Ryan. Palin. Conservatives aren't sure who they want to win, but they are pretty sure it isn't Romney. They might eventually float back to Romney, but it will be a grudging vote, and that's not a good sign for a candidacy just 12 months from election day.

I thnk it may be more difficult for him to win the primary than ti will eb the gnereal election

[pellegrino]

I've talked about this before, but I didnt know anyone that averaged something anywhere close to a 1.9. I don't know what kind of moron it requires to achieve that. The thing is, when Perry is up there on the stage it becomes pretty clear that he is the kind of moron that could pull it off.

What I don't get is how a university allows D credit to count towards major courses. It's clear that he got plenty of D credit. Anyone who has less than a 2.0 for any given semester should be on probation and after their second year, if their cumulative GPA is below 2.0 then they should be dismissed. I lost a lot of respect for aTm when I first saw that.

[calicoug]

I thnk it may be more difficult for him to win the primary than ti will eb the gnereal election

Agreed.

[YOhio]

You're just a wuss.

Boom! Take that! The Romney campaign has come around to my position.

[Donuthole]

Boom! Take that! The Romney campaign has come around to my position.

That makes me happy. I have appreciated that Mitt's campaign has avoided the mud slinging thus far. I was disappointed to see that might change.

[myboynoah]

Boom! Take that! The Romney campaign has come around to my position.

So, Romney get's to take a jab at Perry's stubles, and then appear to be classy by pulling the ad.

Cake and eating it too.

Do you think they plan this stuff?

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I didn't say "no one," I said the base- and they tend to be the ones that decide primaries. Mitt is struggling to get a coalition of voters who will support him in the primary. He lacks a natural constituency, in large part because he spent so much of the 2008 election running as a social conservative instead of an economic one. Social policies are his weakness and he compounded them by changing his position on virtually every one of them to cater to the base. He assumed the base was stupid and would buy it. They didn't.

Now Mitt is doing his best to set himself up as the economic conservative, but at a time when everyone is talking about economics. Quick- name the most recognizable economics plan offered by conservatives. I'd bet you named either 9-9-9 or Ryan's Roadmap. That's a problem for Mitt.

Timing is also an issue for Mitt. The first caucus is in Iowa. He won't win. Then NH. He probably will win there. Then SC. Probably lose. Then Florida. Maybe win, maybe lose. Then Michigan. Possibly lose because of his stance on automobile companies from his WSJ op-ed- despite his connection to Michigan. He has a tough road.

Passion is yet another problem. Voters who support Mitt aren't passionate about Mitt. Polls tell us that, but so does the fact that conservatives are doing just about everything they can to get someone- anyone- else to run. Christie. Ryan. Palin. Conservatives aren't sure who they want to win, but they are pretty sure it isn't Romney. They might eventually float back to Romney, but it will be a grudging vote, and that's not a good sign for a candidacy just 12 months from election day.

You obviously haven't been looking at the polls in SC and Florida. Romney is tied with current flash in the pan Herman Cain. I can't imagine that Romney is too worried about a guy who has no money or organization and who is currently the pinata for both the media and all of the second, third and fourth tier candidates.

Also, who else are the Michigan primary voters going to vote for besides Romney? Pro-Union Rick Perry, Pro-Union Herman Cain or the longtime defender of unions Newt Gingrich? lol.

[San Juan Sun]

So, Romney get's to take a jab at Perry's stubles, and then appear to be classy by pulling the ad.

Cake and eating it too.

Do you think they plan this stuff?

Maybe. Huckabee did a similar thing to Romney in Iowa in 2007.

[Sleeping in EQ]

What I don't get is how a university allows D credit to count towards major courses. It's clear that he got plenty of D credit. Anyone who has less than a 2.0 for any given semester should be on probation and after their second year, if their cumulative GPA is below 2.0 then they should be dismissed. I lost a lot of respect for aTm when I first saw that.

No one graduates from my school with less than a 2.0. Perry's GPA doesn't speak well of him.

[calicoug]

Boom! Take that! The Romney campaign has come around to my position.

If you wait long enough, Mitt will always come around to your position... eventually. He just might not stay there long.

[San Juan Sun]

If you wait long enough, Mitt will always come around to your position... eventually. He just might not stay there long.

I will take this argument from liberals seriously when Barack closes Gitmo and ends the Iraq War.

[YOhio]

If you wait long enough, Mitt will always come around to your position... eventually. He just might not stay there long.

:swear:

[calicoug]

You obviously haven't been looking at the polls in SC and Florida. Romney is tied with current flash in the pan Herman Cain. I can't imagine that Romney is too worried about a guy who has no money or organization and who is currently the pinata for both the media and all of the second, third and fourth tier candidates.

Also, who else are the Michigan primary voters going to vote for besides Romney? Pro-Union Rick Perry, Pro-Union Herman Cain or the longtime defender of unions Newt Gingrich? lol.

Tied? The RCP average has Mitt down 9.5 in South Carolina to Cain. Mitt's in second place, but if Cain falters I'd bet money you see someone else shoot up to take Cain's place who isn't Romney.

In Florida, Romney is up by 2 over Cain- a statistical tie given the margin of error.

Romney does have a good lead in Michigan for the moment, but the campaigning there will get ugly if the primary is still competitive going into Michigan- as most expect it will be. The issue in Michigan for Mitt isn't pro-union or anti-union. It is pro-auto industry v. anti-auto industry. The Michigan auto industry might not exist anymore if Mitt had his way. That's a problem for many people in Michigan- even those who detest unions.

[calicoug]

I will take this argument from liberals seriously when Barack closes Gitmo and ends the Iraq War.

Touche.