The Energy Thread

[Green Monstah]

Not just Texas...

My company's stock is down 50% today, and it was already depressed over the last four weeks. Ugh...

[The_Tick]

The markets are absolutely brutal for oil and gas. A lot of good, talented people are gonna be looking for work in Houston soon.

Not just Texas...

[beefytee]

Hang in there everyone in Texas, hopefully things don't too rough. Last night I talked with my brothers who work in oil and gas and they are super concerned.

[Green Monstah]

The markets are absolutely brutal for oil and gas. A lot of good, talented people are gonna be looking for work in Houston soon.

[cowboy]

A drop in demand for oil causes oil stock to plummet, causing transportation costs to decrease. It begins to be a losing proposition to plant corn, much less to harvest it, so there's less corn available to fatten cattle, and to make ethanol. Less ethanol means that there's more gas in gasoline at the pump, meaning that cars drive more miles per tank on the same fillup, further putting downward pressure on gas prices.

Wuhan virus ain't nothin' to mess with.

Well, that, and the idea that people will go out to eat less if they're sick or afraid to get sick.

[wuapinmon]

Why would coronavirus affect meat prices?

A drop in demand for oil causes oil stock to plummet, causing transportation costs to decrease. It begins to be a losing proposition to plant corn, much less to harvest it, so there's less corn available to fatten cattle, and to make ethanol. Less ethanol means that there's more gas in gasoline at the pump, meaning that cars drive more miles per tank on the same fillup, further putting downward pressure on gas prices.

Wuhan virus ain't nothin' to mess with.

[Katy Lied]

Why would coronavirus affect meat prices?

[cowboy]

Wow, that is closer than I would have ever imagined.

It's not as close as it sounds. Heating oil (diesel) and gasoline futures, which theoretically should be trading at the median cost of production, are around $1.50-$1.60/gallon. That puts the retail price of CO2-generated fuel around $6-$8. But technology develops quickly, so I think it won't be long before it's somewhat comparable.

[All-American]

FIFY. They can already do it, but the cost is around $4/gallon--much MUCH cheaper than I would've guessed but a bit higher than feasible. I'm wondering if the $4/gal figure doesn't include the energy input or something.

Wow, that is closer than I would have ever imagined.

[wuapinmon]

Feedlots sent more cattle to slaughter in 2019 than any year since 2010. Calf prices have been below breakeven for almost three years, and ranchers had to liquidate herds for cash flow. Add that to the largest calf crop in over a decade, and yeah, prices are going to be cheap. Packers have changed their processing procedures a bit, though, so they're making record profits. Retail beef prices have only dropped a small proportion of what cattle prices have. It's pretty typical of the cyclical nature of the industry, but the populists always come out when packers are rolling in the dough and the rancher is having to sell out. I expect retail prices to weaken even more with the coronavirus scare, and then there is a big backlog of cattle that will be ready to kill in April, so look for retail prices to be soft potentially into mid-spring.

Sorry, man.

[cowboy]

I'm seeing beef prices at the supermarket that I haven't seen in ages. Is it because corn is cheap or are there too many cows?

Feedlots sent more cattle to slaughter in 2019 than any year since 2010. Calf prices have been below breakeven for almost three years, and ranchers had to liquidate herds for cash flow. Add that to the largest calf crop in over a decade, and yeah, prices are going to be cheap. Packers have changed their processing procedures a bit, though, so they're making record profits. Retail beef prices have only dropped a small proportion of what cattle prices have. It's pretty typical of the cyclical nature of the industry, but the populists always come out when packers are rolling in the dough and the rancher is having to sell out. I expect retail prices to weaken even more with the coronavirus scare, and then there is a big backlog of cattle that will be ready to kill in April, so look for retail prices to be soft potentially into mid-spring.

[wuapinmon]

Yeah, this suddenly turns every farm and ranch in the Midwest into a wind farm, regardless of the transmission line distance. Huge windfalls (sorry, couldn't help it) for landowners in a depressed sector of the economy. I remember almost 20 years ago the WSJ printed an Op Ed about the importance of government-funded R&D for projects that were too large and/or risky to attract private capital, but had potentially huge payoffs. This is a poster child for supporting their case.

I'm seeing beef prices at the supermarket that I haven't seen in ages. Is it because corn is cheap or are there too many cows?

[cowboy]

Yes. The big problems with winds and solar are: timing and transmission. If you could harness these energy sources to make gas & diesel, wow. Game changer.

Yeah, this suddenly turns every farm and ranch in the Midwest into a wind farm, regardless of the transmission line distance. Huge windfalls (sorry, couldn't help it) for landowners in a depressed sector of the economy. I remember almost 20 years ago the WSJ printed an Op Ed about the importance of government-funded R&D for projects that were too large and/or risky to attract private capital, but had potentially huge payoffs. This is a poster child for supporting their case.

[Lost Student]

I don't know if Dr. Baxter (one of my old profs!) is still working on this, but it's another way to reduce CO2. Having a bunch of "free" energy from fusion would help:

https://news.byu.edu/news/byu-techno...reezing-carbon

[Lost Student]

Yes. The big problems with winds and solar are: timing and transmission. If you could harness these energy sources to cheaply make gas & diesel, wow. Game changer.

FIFY. They can already do it, but the cost is around $4/gallon--much MUCH cheaper than I would've guessed but a bit higher than feasible. I'm wondering if the $4/gal figure doesn't include the energy input or something.