The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[YOhio]

Chip says:

Multiple sources in B12 say the league is not looking to expand. Period.

[Indy Coug]

Chip says:

Would you believe a guy like this?

[Uncle Ted]

That's the rub of it. Arkansas would be better competitively if it joined the Big 12, but doing so would make it Texas's you know what. The SEC is a very stable, well-balanced league. It doesn't have a behemoth like Texas that can pull the rug out from under everyone. Florida probably doesn't have half the power inside the SEC that Texas has inside the Big 12.

The problem of course is Arkansas is going to perennially play third fiddle to Alabama and LSU and often also be behind Auburn and Ole Miss. In the Big 12 North it would be making Big 12 championship games at least ever other year and even make a BCS bowl game here and there.

It is a tough choice for Arkansas, but I would still be surprised if they bolted the SEC. The risks are too great and they'll look long and hard at what Texas almost forced on Missouri (a program of similar stature right now).

Arkansas has done nothing but pretty much wallow in pig slop since leaving the SWC. They dropped from winning about 70% of their games in the Holtz and Hatfield days to winning about 50%. Sure they had a few moments like beating #1 LSU in three overtimes. In the SWC they had 13 conference championships but have never won the conference championship in the SEC. I read somewhere that their Texas recruiting dropped off from about 60% to 10% since making the move to the SEC which may explain things.

Other than the A&M vs. Arkansas game and Jerry Jones I really can't see a reason for Arkansas to be in the Big 12. Little Rock is something like the 53rd TV market. I think it is Arkansas that is doing all the sniffing when it comes to moving to the Big 12.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I don't think the supposed prospect of playing third fiddle in football standings is at all important in these situations. Teams want to be in the most presitgious, financially secure, lucrative and stable conference. Isn't that obvious?

When people talk about how Texas played everyone and was the big winner in all of this, I just don't buy it. I do think Texas tried to play everyone, but they ended up losing Nebraska in the process and that hurts. Nebraska called their bluff and ended up the true winner.

Now the Big 12 has been greatly weakened and no program inside the Big 10 or SEC would ever seriously consider joining it. What Texas did to Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor and, supposedly, Oklahoma State was very, very shitty (IIRC, I saw a rumor that the Pac 16 would have excluded Oklahoma State in favor of Kansas). To a certain extent, Missouri deserved what they got by coming out and saying they would welcome an invite to the Big 10. Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor and Okie State really didn't do anything wrong. Why the hell would Arkansas ever think about leaving the SEC for a place where it would get this kind of treatment?

Notre Dame to the Big 12 is a total, complete pipe dream. Texas and Beebe are delusional if they think Notre Dame would ever consider the Big 12 after not blinking through the College Football Missile Crisis and accepting an invite into the Big 10. Chances are, the Big 10 would make special concessions to ND before allowing ND to join the Big 12. Of course, the Big 10 won't have to do that because ND won't seriously consider the Big 12 in the first place. Would they really give up their annual games with Purdue, Michigan and/or Michigan State in order to play in the Big 12 North?

By losing Nebraska and pulling the shit that it did, Texas is left with the following:

1. A ten team conference that can't have a championship game and is unlikely to ever have two teams in the BCS unless Oklahoma and Texas are both 1 and 2 and fit eligibility requirements. Instead of routinely getting in two teams, it will be a once every other year affair at best. Look at the Pac 10 which didn't have a championship game and also had proximity to two of the four BCS bowls. The Big 10 had Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan which are all desirable teams to BCS bowls and even the second tier teams from the Big 10 travel well (e.g. Wisconsin), it's not the same case with second tier teams from the current Big 12. With Nebraska, Texas and Oklahoma, a 10 team Big 12 would have stood a better chance at two BCS bowl bids.

2. Related to point #1, the expansion of the Pac 10 to the Pac 12 will make it more likely to get in two teams- in the long run at least. When USC is in the mix again, it will essentially be like Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State during the years when those teams are eligible for the BCS but don't win the Big 10- in other words they'll always still get an invite without winning the conference. The expansion of the Big 10 isn't as huge because the Big 10 almost always got in a second team anyway. The Big 10 has gotten two teams into the BCS all four years since the BCS was expanded to five games.

3. If it wants to correct #1, it's going to have to expand but its options are limited to teams outside the BCS because no one inside the BCS (besides Big East teams, and only Louisville would geographically fit in the Big 12) would ever consider them. Texas has effectively limited the Big 12 options to Louisville and Conference USA and MWC teams.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Arkansas has done nothing but pretty much wallow in pig slop since leaving the SWC. They dropped from winning about 70% of their games in the Holtz and Hatfield days to winning about 50%. Sure they had a few moments like beating #1 LSU in three overtimes. In the SWC they had 13 conference championships but have never won the conference championship in the SEC. I read somewhere that their Texas recruiting dropped off from about 60% to 10% since making the move to the SEC which may explain things.

Other than the A&M vs. Arkansas game and Jerry Jones I really can't see a reason for Arkansas to be in the Big 12. Little Rock is something like the 53rd TV market. I think it is Arkansas that is doing all the sniffing when it comes to moving to the Big 12.

Yes, but unlike the Big 12, the SEC doesn't have a history of treating its teams like garbage. I know that Arkansas would be more competitive in the Big 12, but it also opens itself up to being cast out to college football Siberia if Texas decides it wants to do something else.

The Big 12 will eventually expand. It's giving up championship game money and some BCS money if it doesn't. It's not going to take in another Texas team, that makes no sense. If I were a betting man, I think it's going to be two of the following: BYU, Louisville, Air Force and/or New Mexico. BYU is the biggest target of the bunch.

But the Sunday play issue will have to be worked out. Either BYU is going to have to make concessions or BYU will have to be accepted as a partial member. BYU making concessions is extremely unlikely and the Big 12 will not change its schedules for the smaller sports (baseball games are routinely on Sundays).

[Jeff Lebowski]

Yes, but unlike the Big 12, the SEC doesn't have a history of treating its teams like garbage. I know that Arkansas would be more competitive in the Big 12, but it also opens itself up to being cast out to college football Siberia if Texas decides it wants to do something else.

The Big 12 will eventually expand. It's giving up championship game money and some BCS money if it doesn't. It's not going to take in another Texas team, that makes no sense. If I were a betting man, I think it's going to be two of the following: BYU, Louisville, Air Force and/or New Mexico. BYU is the biggest target of the bunch.

But the Sunday play issue will have to be worked out. Either BYU is going to have to make concessions or BYU will have to be accepted as a partial member. BYU making concessions is extremely unlikely and the Big 12 will not change its schedules for the smaller sports (baseball games are routinely on Sundays).

That's easy. Drop baseball.

[SeattleUte]

Yes, but unlike the Big 12, the SEC doesn't have a history of treating its teams like garbage. I know that Arkansas would be more competitive in the Big 12, but it also opens itself up to being cast out to college football Siberia if Texas decides it wants to do something else.

The Big 12 will eventually expand. It's giving up championship game money and some BCS money if it doesn't. It's not going to take in another Texas team, that makes no sense. If I were a betting man, I think it's going to be two of the following: BYU, Louisville, Air Force and/or New Mexico. BYU is the biggest target of the bunch.

But the Sunday play issue will have to be worked out. Either BYU is going to have to make concessions or BYU will have to be accepted as a partial member. BYU making concessions is extremely unlikely and the Big 12 will not change its schedules for the smaller sports (baseball games are routinely on Sundays).

Clearly Texas wants to shop around. BYU's problem is that unlike Utah it's not in a perfect location vis-a-vis the Big 12, and it doesn't so clearly fit a model for institutions in the Big 12 like Utah for the Pac 10. BYU has a lot of competition, and BYU is its own queer type of animal.

Here are some schools that come to mind that Texas might could poach and it might prefer to BYU: Cincinnati, Pitt, Louisville, South Florida, Florida State, Arkansas, Miami. It might even prefer a number of Texas schools like TCU, North Texas, Houston and SMU if reduced to that.

[Jarid in Cedar]

That's easy. Drop baseball.

:swear:

[Uncle Ted]

Clearly Texas wants to shop around. BYU's problem is that unlike Utah it's not in a perfect location vis-a-vis the Big 12, and it doesn't so clearly fit a model for institutions in the Big 12 like Utah for the Pac 10. BYU has a lot of competition, and BYU is its own queer type of animal.

Here are some schools that come to mind that Texas might could poach and it might prefer to BYU: Cincinnati, Pitt, Louisville, South Florida, Florida State, Arkansas, Miami. It might even prefer a number of Texas schools like TCU, North Texas, Houston and SMU if reduced to that.

UNT has very good jazz but not so good football. They are hoping the WAC will take them to replace BSU. They wouldn't be on my Big 12-2 poaching list.

I do agree that Texas (aka. Big 12) wants to shop around. There is no rush. I would still rank BYU high on the poaching targets for the Big 12 if they are going to expand any time soon.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Clearly Texas wants to shop around. BYU's problem is that unlike Utah it's not in a perfect location vis-a-vis the Big 12, and it doesn't so clearly fit a model for institutions in the Big 12 like Utah for the Pac 10. BYU has a lot of competition, and BYU is its own queer type of animal.

Here are some schools that come to mind that Texas might could poach and it might prefer to BYU: Cincinnati, Pitt, Louisville, South Florida, Florida State, Arkansas, Miami. It might even prefer a number of Texas schools like TCU, North Texas, Houston and SMU if reduced to that.

Cross FSU, Arkansas and Miami off of your list, no team from the SEC or ACC will join the Big 12.

Cross the Texas schools off of your list, the Big 12 doesn't want to dilute the Texas talent school by letting in another competitive Big 12 team.

Pitt is farther away from Austin than Provo. It's also a region that's completely dominated by the Big 10. Still, Western Pennsylvania is a rich recruiting ground. I wouldn't rule out an invite to both Louisville and Pitt.

South Florida is the Boise State of the Southeast only significantly less successful in football, not bloody likely.

Cincinnati will always play second fiddle to Ohio State. Adding Louisville gets the Big 12 a team from a region that is very close to Cincy and isn't as dominated by the Big 10.

That leaves Louisville. My personal feeling is that the two most likely teams to get an invite are Louisville and BYU.

[Uncle Ted]

That's easy. Drop baseball.

It seems I am always reading about Universities axing their baseball/softball programs with budget cuts. For example, UMass and UNI cut baseball last year, I believe.

The Big 12 seems to like baseball, however. Maybe the lack of a baseball/softball program at Colorado help contribute to their worthlessness in the Big 12-2 eyes.

[CJF]

That's easy. Drop baseball.

Seems like BYU could either play games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Friday, and a double header on Saturday to avoid Sunday baseball schedule problems. I don't think baseball would need to be dropped.

[Hot Lunch]

Cross FSU, Arkansas and Miami off of your list, no team from the SEC or ACC will join the Big 12.

Cross the Texas schools off of your list, the Big 12 doesn't want to dilute the Texas talent school by letting in another competitive Big 12 team.

Pitt is farther away from Austin than Provo. It's also a region that's completely dominated by the Big 10. Still, Western Pennsylvania is a rich recruiting ground. I wouldn't rule out an invite to both Louisville and Pitt.

South Florida is the Boise State of the Southeast only significantly less successful in football, not bloody likely.

Cincinnati will always play second fiddle to Ohio State. Adding Louisville gets the Big 12 a team from a region that is very close to Cincy and isn't as dominated by the Big 10.

That leaves Louisville. My personal feeling is that the two most likely teams to get an invite are Louisville and BYU.

This is what I have been saying to many people as well. I think Louisville and BYU will be the 2 additions to the Big 12 if they indeed end up expanding which I think they will.

[Pheidippides]

Cross FSU, Arkansas and Miami off of your list, no team from the SEC or ACC will join the Big 12.

Cross the Texas schools off of your list, the Big 12 doesn't want to dilute the Texas talent school by letting in another competitive Big 12 team.

Pitt is farther away from Austin than Provo. It's also a region that's completely dominated by the Big 10. Still, Western Pennsylvania is a rich recruiting ground. I wouldn't rule out an invite to both Louisville and Pitt.

South Florida is the Boise State of the Southeast only significantly less successful in football, not bloody likely.

Cincinnati will always play second fiddle to Ohio State. Adding Louisville gets the Big 12 a team from a region that is very close to Cincy and isn't as dominated by the Big 10.

That leaves Louisville. My personal feeling is that the two most likely teams to get an invite are Louisville and BYU.

I agree with the Texas school part of things. There is no reason to add Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, etc - the Big 12 already has those markets. Dallas, as far as I can tell, is UT and aTm country. Same with SA. Houston adds a significant minority LSU contingent, but that's SEC stuff, and LSU ain't coming over to the Big 12 any time soon. Houston, Rice, etc. simply will not add anything that the Big 12 doesn't already have.

[BlueHair]

Seems like BYU could either play games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Friday, and a double header on Saturday to avoid Sunday baseball schedule problems. I don't think baseball would need to be dropped.

I guess the question is why would they want to rearrange their whole schedule for BYU? BYU needs the Big 12, not the other way around. There's a good chance BYU is more trouble than they are worth. WHY DOES BYU HAVE TO BE SO WEIRD?????