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Going for it on fourth down

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  • Going for it on fourth down

    When I was a kid teams rarely went for it on fourth down outside of exigent circumstances, and then only on fourth and inches. Fans often bemoaned this. Tom Landry was famous for his conservativism in this regard; he even said if there is a penalty on a made field goal that gives you first down, never take points off the board.

    Now it seems that coaches are promiscuous about going for it on fourth down, and fans hate it. Indeed, we see repeatedly that the past generation of coaches appear to have been right. Going for it on fourth down when you don't have to almost never works out. It seems to me that absent the benefit of hindsight going for it on fourth down outside of exigent circumstances or fourth and an inch or so is just plain bad judgment. It's ipso facto a stupid call. Res ipsa loquitur.

    The past two weeks Whit cost Utah a chance to beat Washington and may have cost the team the game against Arizona simply by going for it on fourth down. These are calls that I bet most fans would not have made even as they were occuring.

    Against Washington the Utes were ahead 8-7 late in the first half, and he went for it on fourth and more than a yard from the Utah 43. (Utah's defense had been ably stopping the Huskies, their one TD was an amazing catch at the back of the end zone, the reciever grazing the end zone with his toes before he catapulted out of bounds.) I was with an experienced Ute fan and we stared in disbelief as Utah lined up to go for it, cursing the coaches. Of course they gave the ball to John White off tackle, and he came up an inch short. The Huskies marched down and scored a touchdown on a 43 yard drive, going up 14-8 at the half.

    Last night was worse. The score was tied eight minutes to go in the game, AZ just having tied it, FOURTH AND SIX, and the Utes fake punted it FROM THEIR OWN 39! As Orangeute noted, punters are not normally cut out to be quarterbacks. AZ drove 39 yards for the winning score.

    Remember in the 2008-09 BCS title game Stoops went for it, fourth and goal just before the half when a field goal would have given Oklahoma the lead over Florida going into halftime, and Florida held? Another egregious example of coaching malpractice.

    What is the matter with stupid coaches who understand less than silly fans do about going for it on fourth down? When are they going to figure it out?
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

    --Jonathan Swift

  • #2
    I'll take anecdotes for $100.

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    • #3
      Field position is severely overrated. And FG kickers, as a whole, have been brutal this season.

      It's never been wiser to attempt the conversion on 4th down. The fact that Utah hasn't been successful is a reflection of how poor they are as a football team, and not that Whit should've kicked.
      "I don't know the origin of said bitch booming."-Art Vandelay
      "Hot Lunch posted awhile back on this. He knows more than anyone except for maybe BO."-Seattle Ute

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      • #4
        Originally posted by BoylenOver View Post
        Field position is severely overrated. And FG kickers, as a whole, have been brutal this season.

        It's never been wiser to attempt the conversion on 4th down. The fact that Utah hasn't been successful is a reflection of how poor they are as a football team, and not that Whit should've kicked.
        This.
        "In conclusion, let me give a shout-out to dirty sex. What a great thing it is" - Northwestcoug
        "And you people wonder why you've had extermination orders issued against you." - landpoke
        "Can't . . . let . . . foolish statements . . . by . . . BYU fans . . . go . . . unanswered . . . ." - LA Ute

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        • #5
          Read scorecasting
          Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by BoylenOver View Post
            Field position is severely overrated. And FG kickers, as a whole, have been brutal this season.

            It's never been wiser to attempt the conversion on 4th down. The fact that Utah hasn't been successful is a reflection of how poor they are as a football team, and not that Whit should've kicked.
            Field position is severely overrated? link?

            Strikes me that field position is much of what football's about. Imagine your team is on its own ten and completes a 50 yard pass play to the other side's 40. That pay's significance is severely overrated I guess is your point. That is the difference between punting and going for it on fourth down in these situations -- your opponent is on your 40 or its 10.

            I think your better argument is that Whit went for it because he felt his team was overmatched and needed to play with abandon to win. But I don't that Utah was so disadvantaged in either of the situations I described, especially at home vs. Arizona and tied with eight minutes left.
            When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

            --Jonathan Swift

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            • #7
              Generally when a coach goes for it on 4th outside of last drive of the game there are two things.

              1. Fortune favors the bold
              2. He is challenging his team to win

              that being said there is much to be said about kicking a fg as it takes points to win. In general a coach should be advised to "kick early, go for it late" as we don't what else is going to happen and at least you have 3 points.

              all in all I am fine with every call on fourth down kyle made. the 4 and goal where he went for it he was trying to challenge his team to win. Had they scored their the game is changed.

              Sent from my SGH-T839 using Tapatalk 2
              "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

              "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

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              • #8
                SU, here are some actual data as opposed to the football superstition and tradition on which you rely.

                You're like Grapevine quoting BRM the way you talk about Tom Landry as if he is correct based on authority without evidence.

                KWhit must be a better man of science than you are and is absolutely correct to be aggressive on fourth down.

                http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...dy-part-4.html

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                • #9
                  Football Statistics Suggest Teams Should Go For It On Fourth Down

                  I have no strong opinion but I thought these stats were interesting.

                  Yet mathematics pounds this sort of conventional wisdom into the turf. Statistical analyses have shown that to give their team the best chance of winning, coaches should go for it more on fourth down. A lot.

                  And nowhere is that clearer than on that most tantalizing of fourth-down situations: fourth and one yard to go. "What the numbers suggest – and sometimes it seems crazy – but in almost all of those situations, it makes sense to go for it," said Brian Burke, founder of AdvancedNFLStats.com.
                  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1254352.html
                  “There is a great deal of difference in believing something still, and believing it again.”
                  ― W.H. Auden


                  "God made the angels to show His splendour - as He made animals for innocence and plants for their simplicity. But men and women He made to serve Him wittily, in the tangle of their minds."
                  -- Robert Bolt, A Man for All Seasons


                  "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
                  --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by CardiacCoug View Post
                    SU, here are some actual data as opposed to the football superstition and tradition on which you rely.

                    You're like Grapevine quoting BRM the way you talk about Tom Landry as if he is correct based on authority without evidence.

                    KWhit must be a better man of science than you are and is absolutely correct to be aggressive on fourth down.

                    http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...dy-part-4.html

                    The fake punt, by the way, came on 4th and six on Utah's 39-- 61 yards out. Graph says to punt.
                    τὸν ἥλιον ἀνατέλλοντα πλείονες ἢ δυόμενον προσκυνοῦσιν

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
                      I was with an experienced Ute fan
                      Is there a degree one obtains that is required to grow this skill, or are you being more subtle and did this evening escapade require a big tube of KY?

                      via a galaxy s3 far far away
                      "Don't expect I'll see you 'till after the race"

                      "So where does the power come from to see the race to its end...from within"

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by doctorcoug View Post
                        Is there a degree one obtains that is required to grow this skill, or are you being more subtle and did this evening escapade require a big tube of KY?

                        via a galaxy s3 far far away
                        DC going all blitzkrieg on us with the junior high smack.
                        "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
                        "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
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                        • #13
                          "We should remember that one man is much the same as another, and that he is best who is trained in the severest school."
                          -Thucydides

                          "Study strategy over the years and achieve the spirit of the warrior. Today is victory over yourself of yesterday; tomorrow is your victory over lesser men."
                          -Miyamoto Musashi

                          Si vis pacem, para bellum

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
                            DC going all blitzkrieg on us with the junior high smack.
                            Ouch, that hurts.

                            I thought it was kinda funny. I guess I'm the only one laughing. Oh well.

                            via a galaxy s3 far far away
                            "Don't expect I'll see you 'till after the race"

                            "So where does the power come from to see the race to its end...from within"

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BoylenOver View Post
                              Field position is severely overrated. And FG kickers, as a whole, have been brutal this season.

                              It's never been wiser to attempt the conversion on 4th down. The fact that Utah hasn't been successful is a reflection of how poor they are as a football team, and not that Whit should've kicked.
                              Teams with a good defense and a bad offense should play the field position game. BYU and Utah both fall into this category.

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