The ACC Expansion Groundswell

[Goatnapper'96]

This is in answer to what scenario would deconstruct the Big 12.The ACC could lure West Virginia away ( am sure that they would rather be there anyway). The Big 10 could come calling for Kansas. Texas could revive the PAC-16, maybe.

I thnk that is why the conferences are adding so many teams in an effort to survive potential attrition. If I were the Big 12 I would invite a couple just to insure your position.

I think it is a very saliant point. I have got to think that the Big-10 will move to 12 by next football season and BYU will likely be a part of the noise. I have no idea who will be invited but I think BYU and Cincy will be part of the noise. It would not surprise me if the old SWC foes (Houston, SMU and perhaps even Rice) are not mentioned. I believe the SEC, ACC and B1G are set at 14 and will set there to see how the Pac and Big-12 react. I think the Pac stays put for another couple of years and will only expand when they have to and likely would go straight to 16 when that comes. The SEC and B1G will wait while we know the ACC has ND sloted as its 15th and my guess is UCONN will be its 16th but that will have to wait until they all move to 16.

It could go to 4 conferences by 16 teams assuming that the Big-12 is killed via attrition but somebody would be left out between WVU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Cincy, South Florida and Iowa State. If the ACC adds ND and UConn for its 16. The Pac adds OU,OSU, TTU and Texas. The SEC would need two more say WVU and Baylor. The B1G could add Cincy and Iowa State. That would leave Kansas, KSU and South Florida out in the cold and we all know that ain't gonna happen. Kansas is gonna get picked up and my guess is KSU will go with them. It is going to be interesting to see how it all shakes out over the next few years.

[Moliere]

Why can't there be 5 super conferences? Everyone assumes there will be four of them.

[Goatnapper'96]

Why can't there be 5 super conferences? Everyone assumes there will be four of them.

I think there can be. But if the Big-12 continues to sit at 10 teams one has got to wonder what the plans of Oklahoma and Texas are. I also struggle seeing scenarios where teams already with a seat at the table are forced out.

It will be interesting and the more it goes on the more I realize I have no clue what these conferences and schools want other than money, and I am not sure I have a clue what drives the money.

[Green Monstah]

The B12 decomposition has not begun and will not occur as long as Texas and OU want it to survive. As I mentioned, it is also bolstered by the fact that there are a bunch of ACC schools that are more attractive to the B1G and SEC than the best non-OU/UT B12 schools.

Interesting take. I have a hard time believing ND would affiliate with a conference that is in serious risk of disbanding, especially after what happened with the BE.

I think it's funny that the UT/OU oligarchy is what has gotten the B12 to this point, yet you think that somehow it will save the rest of the conference.

[Green Monstah]

I'd say that the 33% that left were not the elite of the conference either.. In fact, I'd say adding TCU was much better then UC and Mizzou.


They were not the breadwinners of the league.. So them leaving I think does not impact the conference as much as you would like to think...

Signed,

Nebraska and Texas A&M

[Green Monstah]

If it was the least attractice, then why are there rumors of the B12 poaching the ACC?

The ACC is much more likely to get torn up through this than the B12.

I think the better question is this: If the Big 12 is more attractive, why aren't FSU and Clemson in the B12, assuming the rumors of offers are true?

The fact that there were rumors of ACC teams jumping ship to B12 and not one did supports my assertion more than yours (for now).

[Paperback Writer]

Scratch has already laid all of this out. But to restate, there's no Big 12 schools anyone wants besides Texas and OU. And Texas and OU are not going anywhere as long as they have 8 other schools willing to play ball with them. None of those other 8 schools will ever have better options than the Big 12 with the possible exception of West Virginia to the ACC or SEC.

On the other hand, there are schools in the ACC that are desirable for Big Ten and SEC expansion if those conference choose to go past 14. I really doubt they do. But if the Big Ten and SEC carve up the ACC then Florida St. and Clemson are likely candidates for the Big 12 because the Big Ten won't take them and the SEC has locked them out.

The Big 12 will continue to survive. I think the ACC survives as well.

On a side note, I really question if the Big Ten gets its anticipated return with the additions of Maryland and Rutgers. Big Jim hit a home run with Penn St. But now the umpires are reviewing that call but I think Penn St. comes back and the call stands. Some think Big Jim hit a home run with Nebraska but some umpires think it might have been a ground rule double. They continue to review the call. With Maryland and Rutgers, the discussion will be whether they were a hit or an error. They are very good universities but I question whether they will add significant value to ratings and be competitive on the gridiron.

[Omaha 680]

PBW is right. The Big 12 will survive as long as Oklahoma and Texas want it to. All indications are they do.

[Green Monstah]

Scratch has already laid all of this out. But to restate, there's no Big 12 schools anyone wants besides Texas and OU. And Texas and OU are not going anywhere as long as they have 8 other schools willing to play ball with them. None of those other 8 schools will ever have better options than the Big 12 with the possible exception of West Virginia to the ACC or SEC.

On the other hand, there are schools in the ACC that are desirable for Big Ten and SEC expansion if those conference choose to go past 14. I really doubt they do. But if the Big Ten and SEC carve up the ACC then Florida St. and Clemson are likely candidates for the Big 12 because the Big Ten won't take them and the SEC has locked them out.

The Big 12 will continue to survive. I think the ACC survives as well.

On a side note, I really question if the Big Ten gets its anticipated return with the additions of Maryland and Rutgers. Big Jim hit a home run with Penn St. But now the umpires are reviewing that call but I think Penn St. comes back and the call stands. Some think Big Jim hit a home run with Nebraska but some umpires think it might have been a ground rule double. They continue to review the call. With Maryland and Rutgers, the discussion will be whether they were a hit or an error. They are very good universities but I question whether they will add significant value to ratings and be competitive on the gridiron.

I dont necessarily agree that the rest of the B12 are untouchables. The Kansas schools are key. If the ACC got KU, which would be agreat hoops addition, the dominos will fall. Furthermore, if UT/OU perceive that they're being hurt by a weak conference (eg, SWC), they'll make a move in their best interests. Baylor TCU and ISU may very well end up on the outside looking in.

[Scratch]

I dont necessarily agree that the rest of the B12 are untouchables. The Kansas schools are key. If the ACC got KU, which would be agreat hoops addition, the dominos will fall. Furthermore, if UT/OU perceive that they're being hurt by a weak conference (eg, SWC), they'll make a move in their best interests. Baylor TCU and ISU may very well end up on the outside looking in.

Kansas doesn't move unless either 1) it has to because the B12 is collapsing/has collapsed, or 2) the conference it's going to will take K-State as well. Otherwise, the political forces in Kansas will never allow it (in fact I believe there may already be something requiring them to stick together). Neither the SEC or B1G would ever take both of those schools, not a chance. Kansas alone would barely be enough to even create a discussion.

As for the collapse, we're back to Texas and OU. The B12 will continue to exist as long as they want it to.

[Paperback Writer]

Kansas doesn't move unless either 1) it has to because the B12 is collapsing/has collapsed, or 2) the conference it's going to will take K-State as well. Otherwise, the political forces in Kansas will never allow it (in fact I believe there may already be something requiring them to stick together). Neither the SEC or B1G would ever take both of those schools, not a chance. Kansas alone would barely be enough to even create a discussion.

As for the collapse, we're back to Texas and OU. The B12 will continue to exist as long as they want it to.

Not much to add except Kansas was most instrumental in putting the Big 8 together. The Jayhawks will be the last to leave and will be the ones turning out the lights. Scrath is dead on about the marriage between KU and KSU.

[New Mexican Disaster]

Kansas doesn't move unless either 1) it has to because the B12 is collapsing/has collapsed, or 2) the conference it's going to will take K-State as well. Otherwise, the political forces in Kansas will never allow it (in fact I believe there may already be something requiring them to stick together). Neither the SEC or B1G would ever take both of those schools, not a chance. Kansas alone would barely be enough to even create a discussion.

As for the collapse, we're back to Texas and OU. The B12 will continue to exist as long as they want it to.

I agree that the Big 12 exists as long as the Horns and Sooners want it to. How long will the other schools want to stick around if it is as insufferable as the rumors and innuendo suggest? I don't think it will happen, but I can imagine scenarios where other schools, (Kansas and West Virginia) bolt at the first sign of daylight. As for political forces-the latest turns of the merry-go-round lead me to believe that their impact is greatly exaggerated.

If I were the conference commissioner that would keep me up at night, especially because we are seeing cannibalization of leagues in all directions, and they are all filtering upward to the Big 10 and SEC at this point.

[wapiti]

I am not sure I have a clue what drives the money.

$.30/mo/household. If your school delivers a big enough market, you will be in the BIG, the PAC, or the SEC.

[New Mexican Disaster]

$.30/mo/household. If your school delivers a big enough market, you will be in the BIG, the PAC, or the SEC.

Like those huge TCU, Nebraska, West Virginia and Louisville markets?

[LiveCoug]

Like those huge TCU, Nebraska, West Virginia and Louisville markets?

TCU = 5th largest market
Nebraska = 105 (Lincoln) 75 (Omaha) together would be about 47
West Virginia = 65
Louisville = 48


Not horrible markets.