Cache Cows! Who needs a (General) Conference?

[Shaka]

Leave that kind of nonsense to Hsaru.

MGaru?

Sorry someone did it to me. I think it was Shakaru.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Start poring through comments on the board the last couple years and you will see a ton of references to Riley's luck from a variety of posters.

And I think all of those posters are FOS.

But I get what you're saying. And all I'm saying is you can't always rely on the defense to drop balls rights at them. Sure they'll drop some, but what is the probability that a defense drops all three of the balls thrown straight at them? Can't be high. So then when he has a game like BSU where all the balls he throws right at the defense end up interceptions, it's hard to dismiss it entirely as he was hurt simply because there's precedent for those kinds of decisions in his previous play, even though PER didn't neccessarily capture them.

You are cherry-picking your plays to make a case. I think over the long term Riley has a dropped interception/interception ratio that is about the same as any quarterback. I reject the notion that his numbers are better than they should be due to some magic power of luck. There is no such thing.

Riley makes a lot of dumb decisions. It results in quite a few interceptions and quite a few potential interceptions.

[wapiti]

Given how good our defense is, when Nelson is 100%, he is "good enough" of a QB for us to be successful. When he isn't 100%... we all know the end to that sentence.

Signed,
Trent Dilfer

[MarkGrace]

MGaru?

Sorry someone did it to me. I think it was Shakaru.

You had your choice of Shakaru or Hshaka.

[Indy Coug]

Signed,
Trent Dilfer

Agreed. The Ravens defense that one year was good enough to win the Super Bowl.

[pelagius]

Ha. That's very funny that you would respond to a pelagius post by referencing some magic power of luck.

Obviously, I think randomness plays a big role in football, and certainly it may be true that Riley has been "lucky" in the non-magic sense of the word. I also think there are some major issues with cognitive biases when people talk about luck when it comes to Riley. Problably something like the "Halo" effect (in reverse) is at work.

Now that said, I do agree that Riley is higher variance than most quarterbacks, but I would have to see some systematic evidence before I conclude that his has been unusually lucky. (And you note this issue rather nicely in your post a few back that I didn't see before posting).

[San Juan Sun]

It's pretty depressing when we don't have confidence in our HC to just let the best players play.

Disclaimer: I believe that at the start of camp, Riley was the best player. With a significant back injury, he obviously is not. On the mend... we'll see how it goes, but he should not play until he is clearly better than Hill, and is not playing with a significant risk of re-injury.

[MarkGrace]

Obviously, I think randomness plays a big role in football, and certainly it may be true that Riley has been "lucky" in the non-magic sense of the word.

Now that said, I do agree that Riley is higher variance than most quarterbacks, but I would have to see some systematic evidence before I conclude that his has been unusually lucky.

ha. Suck it, Lebowski!

Spoiler for Spoiler for Lebowski:

Just kidding. Give me some love.

[Flystripper]

It's pretty depressing when we don't have confidence in our HC to just let the best players play.

Disclaimer: I believe that at the start of camp, Riley was the best player. With a significant back injury, he obviously is not. On the mend... we'll see how it goes, but he should not play until he is clearly better than Hill, and is not playing with a significant risk of re-injury.

I agree. It is also depressing that BYU's best defense ever is saddled with this QB situation.

[pelagius]

ha. Suck it, Lebowski!

I thought I was agreeing with Lebowski.

[Shaka]

It's pretty depressing when we don't have confidence in our HC to just let the best players play.

Disclaimer: I believe that at the start of camp, Riley was the best player. With a significant back injury, he obviously is not. On the mend... we'll see how it goes, but he should not play until he is clearly better than Hill, and is not playing with a significant risk of re-injury.

I agree with this. I trust Bronco to do what's right in this case. If I had to make a call with my limited knowledge of Riley's condition I'd say to with Hill this week and then reassess the situation.

[Art Vandelay]

Start poring through comments on the board the last couple years and you will see a ton of references to Riley's luck from a variety of posters.

But I get what you're saying. And all I'm saying is you can't always rely on the defense to drop balls rights at them. Sure they'll drop some, but what is the probability that a defense drops all three of the balls thrown straight at them? Can't be high. So then when he has a game like BSU where all the balls he throws right at the defense end up interceptions, it's hard to dismiss it entirely as he was hurt simply because there's precedent for those kinds of decisions in his previous play, even though PER didn't neccessarily capture them.

I've already admitted, you have me investigating the DARN church, and I'm really close to, "being on date". But, I don't like the woulda, coulda, shoulda argument. It seems to my eyes that RN has had more should-be interceptions dropped, than the average QB, but who knows. However, much like pelagenius said, if you are going to look at those, then you have to factor in how many dropped balls (easy to see) or wrong routes (usually hard to tell) by receivers that adversely effected his performance.

Also, as much I want to catch Taysomania, it is way too small of sample size, against a horrible team for me to accurately state who gives BYU the better chance to win, the great white hope, or a healthy RN.

[MarkGrace]

And I think all of those posters are FOS.



You are cherry-picking your plays to make a case. I think over the long term Riley has a dropped interception/interception ratio that is about the same as any quarterback. I reject the notion that his numbers are better than they should be due to some magic power of luck. There is no such thing.

Riley makes a lot of dumb decisions. It results in quite a few interceptions and quite a few potential interceptions.

So then you agree that his performances against Utah and BSU this year can't be dismissed based on injury? He plays two respectable teams last year as the team's starter (Tulsa and TCU) and racks up four turnovers a game in each, with the potential for all out disaster games if the defense catches the average number of interceptions based on the throws directly at them. Then he plays two respectable teams this year and racks up four turnovers a piece, and sticks the landing on his all out disaster game when the defense grabs every ball he throws his way. Is this simply due to injury or is there some consistency based on what we've seen?

[MarkGrace]

I thought I was agreeing with Lebowski.

You weren't.

[Indy Coug]

Riley's luck is primarily centered around the Tulsa game where he had an extreme number of dropped would-be interceptions. I'm not sure anyone can put forth a convincing case that the other games constitute a significant amount of "luck" in this specific regard.