The Official Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Thread

[Indy Coug]

IMO, a great season is finishing in the top 15. A good season is finishing 16th to 25th. We've had a couple of great seasons and several good seasons under Bronco.

[woot]

IMO, a great season is finishing in the top 15. A good season is finishing 16th to 25th. We've had a couple of great seasons and several good seasons under Bronco.

This seems like a good rubric. Then again, that means this season was a good one. Maybe that's true, but it sure doesn't feel like it.

[woot]

Hypothesis: a season feels better if BYU is in the discussion at some point, even if they drop at the end. This year, on the other hand, BYU has been irrelevant the entire year, and when they sneak into the top 25 in the final poll no one will care. On the other hand, Houston was a big deal this year. Even if they lose to PSU (an intriguing matchup that PSU should win but might not due to all the off-field issues) and fall below BYU in the polls, this season will have been great for Houston's exposure and national presence, making it feel more like a good season for them.

[Hsaru]

IMO, a great season is finishing in the top 15. A good season is finishing 16th to 25th. We've had a couple of great seasons and several good seasons under Bronco.

At what point do you address how weak the schedule is? When it is completely Sun Belt/lower WAC teams? At what point does just being ranked with a high amount of wins against the dregs of CFB feel a bit hollow?

Just throwing out a record and proclaiming a season a success no matter the schedule is one of the most ridiculous things you can do in CFB. Didn't Buffalo win 12 games a couple years back? Anyone with a brain and eyes knew they were fradulent.

BYU has a legitimate top 25 defense, but our offense is a dumpster fire. Doman couldn't have had a worst first season, what a dumbass he was not keeping continuity in scheme from Anae's tenure in his first year. Just an egregiously bad mistake that defies all common sense.

[oxcoug]

IMO, a great season is finishing in the top 15. A good season is finishing 16th to 25th. We've had a couple of great seasons and several good seasons under Bronco.

Top 10 has always been my qualification for "greatness." A top 10 finish will almost always mean that you had (a) an exceptional regular season (b) won your bowl game. It also means you were at least on the fringes of the BCS conversation. I can't see anything outside the top 10 being classified as "great."

BYU has had maybe 3-4 "great" seasons in its history, IMO.

But out of curiosity Indy did you drop your standard of greatness down to 15 in order to make the case that we've achieved "greatness" under Bronco?

[jay santos]

I thought some rankings might be fun, so here I go looking for numbers. I'll just use Scout, since their format is easiest and it'll provide a ballpark (I used Rivals for 2009; Scout only shows the top 25 for that year).

BYU Utah
2012 46 51
2011 66 40
2010 22 50
2009 50 44
2008 57 65
2007 42 66
2006 46 60
2005 53 71
2004 55 68
2003 59 95
2002 46 84

Take-aways: Coaching matters a lot, both teams long benefited from a schedule full of tomato cans that didn't expose their lack of talent, and neither team has any business expecting to make noise on the national scene.

Presumably, Utah's recruiting will improve in the Pac (Arizona and ASU tend to live in the 30s or 40s, which is probably a reasonable expectation for Utah eventually).

That's an interesting table. What jumps out at me is that Utah is clearly trending to better recruiting seasons over this time period, while BYU is essentially flat. It will be very interesting to see what direction this goes in the future.

[San Juan Sun]

BYU finished 12th in the polls in 2009. The big slide was in 2010 and BYU made reasonable strides forward in 2011.

You're right, 2009 was a good year too.

Of course, you ignored the (meagerly) substantive portion of my post. But you are right about 2009.

[Jeff Lebowski]

That's an interesting table. What jumps out at me is that Utah is clearly trending to better recruiting seasons over this time period, while BYU is essentially flat. It will be very interesting to see what direction this goes in the future.

That is interesting. Both teams have been overachieving based on talent levels.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Ok, Coach, Surfah, et al:
Would you guys be happier in Utah's shoes right now?
I'm not trolling here--I'm honestly curious. Utah's ranked lower, is facing a lower ranked bowl opponent, and has a similar QB issue next year. We have a comparable schedule. Why the big difference? Is it long-term prospects?

You are missing the main point of discontent. Utah would have gone at worst 11-2 with BYU's schedule this season. Yet I much prefer being 7-5(hopefully 8-5) with the schedule that we played. And it is not even close.

[fusnik]

IMO, a great season is finishing in the top 15. A good season is finishing 16th to 25th. We've had a couple of great seasons and several good seasons under Bronco.

This is crazy.

The last great season BYU had was 96. Had some really good seasons no great ones.

For a mid major, a great season has to include BCS consideration, I don't recall one season where BYUs been in that convo.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Let me also add, woot that what bronco is working with, to his credit, is a hell of a lot of talent, which adds to the frustration.

This statement is a little puzzling. Where do you think BYU should be performing, based on typical recruiting classes in the 40-50 range?

[pelagius]

You are missing the main point of discontent. Utah would have gone at worst 11-2 with BYU's schedule this season.

I think you're too confident in this assertion. Look, the most unbiased way to address this is just to benchmark it relative to a good model. BYU and Utah are almost identically ranked in most good models. Thus, the most likely outcome for Utah this year playing BYU's schedule would have been 10-3 just like BYU. Sure, there is a non-trivial probability Utah would have gone 11-2, but in the expectation given the data we have and doing reasonable modeling is 10-3. BYU and Utah, after adjusting for strength of schedule, had very similar levels of success this season.

[Coach McGuirk]

This statement is a little puzzling. Where do you think BYU should be performing, based on typical recruiting classes in the 40-50 range?

I guess where BSU, TCU, Utah, etc does with lesser ranked classes?

[Jarid in Cedar]

I think you're too confident in this assertion. Look, the most unbiased way to address this is just to benchmark it relative to a good model. BYU and Utah are almost identically ranked in most good models. Thus, the most likely outcome for Utah this year playing BYU's schedule would have been 10-3 just like BYU. Sure, there is a non-trivial probability Utah would have gone 11-2, but in the expectation given the data we have and doing reasonable modeling is 10-3. BYU and Utah, after adjusting for strength of schedule, had very similar levels of success this season.

Right, I took BYU's record and traded the loss to Utah into the win column. So the assumption would be 10-2 in all the other games.

[USUC]

Just to my two cents to the discussion. I think most of us here don’t live in a college football bubble. We watch teams play from across the country. We know what great teams look like and we know what great performance looks like. Given the talent level of BYU, I expect more. I’m not expecting to be contending for a BCS bowl every season, but I’m expecting them to be playing at a level at least somewhat consistent with their ability.

This year the discontent is heightened because with BYU playing so many crappy teams that a 9 or 10 win season was all but guaranteed. Total wins is an aberration of success this year. Where has the team improved as the season progressed? Not on the O-line. Not in the backfield. In the defensive secondary? Hell, did the D-line become more dominant as the year went on? I expect this coaching staff to be developing its players and the play as a unit. I don’t think this is happening. I don’t care about the historical performance of this team. Just because something has been so in the past doesn’t mean I’m going to let underperformance slide because that’s the way it’s always been.