The State of Utah Football, The Pac-12, and The 2011 Season

[NorthwestUteFan]

Meh on the article. It is fairly accurate and introduces nothing new. The PAC TV deal makes it ALL feel better anyhow. Three billion dollars to the leage...

[Top Ute]

I predict a ton of vitriol will be directed toward the radio guys if this link is posted on ufn.

Why? Because they said we wouldn't win 10 games? You might find 5 percent of UF.N that really believes we'll do that again this year.

Now if they predicted ASU to win the South, that's another matter entirely.

[il Padrino Ute]

Why? Because they said we wouldn't win 10 games? You might find 5 percent of UF.N that really believes we'll do that again this year.

Now if they predicted ASU to win the South, that's another matter entirely.

Yes, because they didn't worship the Utes. Have you not noticed how ufn has turned into the equivalent of cougarboard since 2004?

[Top Ute]

Yes, because they didn't worship the Utes. Have you not noticed how ufn has turned into the equivalent of cougarboard since 2004?

Perhaps. My ignore list has grown noticeably in the last few months, but most of that had to do with the Kool-Aid drinking Boylen apologists over there.

[il Padrino Ute]

Perhaps. My ignore list has grown noticeably in the last few months, but most of that had to do with the Kool-Aid drinking Boylen apologists over there.

Those are the same that I believe would be upset about the link in this thread.

[Top Ute]

Yes, because they didn't worship the Utes. Have you not noticed how ufn has turned into the equivalent of cougarboard since 2004?

After quickly pondering your comparison, and wondering why you'd be quick to throw a lot of right-minded Ute fans under the bus you're barreling along in at 80 MPH, I will say this: The reaction to the media from both boards is dead balls-on identical. I'm not going to say there aren't valid points and complaints that are being made occasionally, but a lot of them are absurd.

[LA Ute]

Perhaps. My ignore list has grown noticeably in the last few months, but most of that had to do with the Kool-Aid drinking Boylen apologists over there.

I only check there once a day or so for news. The discussions are usually not worth the time, except with a few posters (you are one).

[Portland Ute]

Tucson sports radio guys on Utah football's impact in the PAC-12.

Elite programs throughout the year?

Look, the PAC12 is definitely a huge step up. USC, Oregon, Stanford...elite teams... at least in present day. (It will be interesting to see if USC dips with the restrictions, etc, but they STILL get elite talent.)

However, nobody else that Utah faces this season is "elite" in the sense that Alabama was in 2008. The false premise that Utah is going to have to face the likes of Alabama week in and week out is nonsense.

In fact, I think TCU over the past few years is probably better than the best PAC12 South team this coming season. I honestly do not believe that the "toughest" of the regular season next season will be as tough as the "toughest" that Utah's faced vs. TCU the past several years. Now, Oregon and Stanford are clearly at or above that level, but that is not a week in/week out deal the way the schedule sets up.

The argument these guys and others SHOULD make, IMO, is: How will Utah do without the cupcakes on the schedule to rest and recuperate and game plan for the next big game?

IMO, the biggest difference won't be the "elite" teams. Utah and TCU have proven that they can beat most anyone. No, the biggest difference will be playing CU or WSU instead of Wyoming or New Mexico.

The thing that makes Utah's schedule tougher going forward is the bottom of teams they will face will be MUCH better than the bottom teams they have faced in the past.

[LA Ute]

Elite programs throughout the year?

Look, the PAC12 is definitely a huge step up. USC, Oregon, Stanford...elite teams... at least in present day. (It will be interesting to see if USC dips with the restrictions, etc, but they STILL get elite talent.)

However, nobody else that Utah faces this season is "elite" in the sense that Alabama was in 2008. The false premise that Utah is going to have to face the likes of Alabama week in and week out is nonsense.

In fact, I think TCU over the past few years is probably better than the best PAC12 South team this coming season. I honestly do not believe that the "toughest" of the regular season next season will be as tough as the "toughest" that Utah's faced vs. TCU the past several years. Now, Oregon and Stanford are clearly at or above that level, but that is not a week in/week out deal the way the schedule sets up.

The argument these guys and others SHOULD make, IMO, is: How will Utah do without the cupcakes on the schedule to rest and recuperate and game plan for the next big game?

IMO, the biggest difference won't be the "elite" teams. Utah and TCU have proven that they can beat most anyone. No, the biggest difference will be playing CU or WSU instead of Wyoming or New Mexico.

The thing that makes Utah's schedule tougher going forward is the bottom of teams they will face will be MUCH better than the bottom teams they have faced in the past.

I think that is the essence of Utah's challenge going into the PAC-12, especially next season. Kyle says depth is a problem for us, as it is for most non-BCS programs.

[Senioritis]

Elite programs throughout the year?

Look, the PAC12 is definitely a huge step up. USC, Oregon, Stanford...elite teams... at least in present day. (It will be interesting to see if USC dips with the restrictions, etc, but they STILL get elite talent.)

However, nobody else that Utah faces this season is "elite" in the sense that Alabama was in 2008. The false premise that Utah is going to have to face the likes of Alabama week in and week out is nonsense.

In fact, I think TCU over the past few years is probably better than the best PAC12 South team this coming season. I honestly do not believe that the "toughest" of the regular season next season will be as tough as the "toughest" that Utah's faced vs. TCU the past several years. Now, Oregon and Stanford are clearly at or above that level, but that is not a week in/week out deal the way the schedule sets up.

The argument these guys and others SHOULD make, IMO, is: How will Utah do without the cupcakes on the schedule to rest and recuperate and game plan for the next big game?

IMO, the biggest difference won't be the "elite" teams. Utah and TCU have proven that they can beat most anyone. No, the biggest difference will be playing CU or WSU instead of Wyoming or New Mexico.

The thing that makes Utah's schedule tougher going forward is the bottom of teams they will face will be MUCH better than the bottom teams they have faced in the past.

Word.

[wally]

Elite programs throughout the year?

Look, the PAC12 is definitely a huge step up. USC, Oregon, Stanford...elite teams... at least in present day. (It will be interesting to see if USC dips with the restrictions, etc, but they STILL get elite talent.)

However, nobody else that Utah faces this season is "elite" in the sense that Alabama was in 2008. The false premise that Utah is going to have to face the likes of Alabama week in and week out is nonsense.

In fact, I think TCU over the past few years is probably better than the best PAC12 South team this coming season. I honestly do not believe that the "toughest" of the regular season next season will be as tough as the "toughest" that Utah's faced vs. TCU the past several years. Now, Oregon and Stanford are clearly at or above that level, but that is not a week in/week out deal the way the schedule sets up.

The argument these guys and others SHOULD make, IMO, is: How will Utah do without the cupcakes on the schedule to rest and recuperate and game plan for the next big game?

IMO, the biggest difference won't be the "elite" teams. Utah and TCU have proven that they can beat most anyone. No, the biggest difference will be playing CU or WSU instead of Wyoming or New Mexico.

The thing that makes Utah's schedule tougher going forward is the bottom of teams they will face will be MUCH better than the bottom teams they have faced in the past.

Tomato/To-motto.

I you are making the same point as the article: Utah's schedule will get tougher overall.

The article poses no inflamitory opinion, and definitely does not pose anything that sane Utah fans aren't already concerned about.

[oxcoug]

1 - Montana St - 99% W
2 - @USC - 70% L
3 - @BYU - 80% L
4 - UW - 50% tossup
5 - ASU - 60% L
6 - @Pitt - 60% L
7 - @Cal - 60% L
8 - Oregon St - 70% W
9 - @Arizona - 60% L
10 - UCLA - 60% W
11 - @WSU - 80% W
12 - Colorado - 70%W

4 highly probable or nearly certain wins
2 highly probable or nearly certain losses
4 lean/likely losses
1 lean/likely win
1 tossup

Based on this highly scientific breakdown it looks like:

5% chance Utah goes 4-8
20% chance Utah goes 5-7
40% chance they go 6-6
20% chance they go 7-5
15% chance they go 8-4

[Jacob]

I would land at 8-4 ...

I look at each game as rough probabilites of a win:

99%-Montana State
75%-CU, UCLA, @WSU
50%-@Pitt, @BYU, ASU, OSU, UW
25%-@Cal, @UoA, @USC

...

We get the weakest conference team on the road so that was a fortuitous draw. CU and UCLA will likely be 2 teams worse than us on offense, and we have them at home. USC is the mostly likely loss. If we can get one of Cal or UoA, and 3 of the 50-50 games, then 8-4 is likely.

The math doesn't add up. You are predicting winning at least 33% of your 25% games and 60% of your 50/50 games. Then all of your 75% games. Based on the % you presented, 8-4 would be an overly optimistic projection.

[Jarid in Cedar]

The math doesn't add up. You are predicting winning at least 33% of your 25% games and 60% of your 50/50 games. Then all of your 75% games. Based on the % you presented, 8-4 would be an overly optimistic projection.

You are correct, I am counting all of the 75% games for the reasons that I stated. UCLA and CU are at home and will out-inept us on offense and WSU is the worst team in conference. I guess I am saying that listing those 3 games as 75% is a pessimistic view.

[Hot Lunch]

1 - Montana St - 99% W
2 - @USC - 70% L
3 - @BYU - 80% L
4 - UW - 50% tossup
5 - ASU - 60% L
6 - @Pitt - 60% L
7 - @Cal - 60% L
8 - Oregon St - 70% W
9 - @Arizona - 60% L
10 - UCLA - 60% W
11 - @WSU - 80% W
12 - Colorado - 70%W

4 highly probable or nearly certain wins
2 highly probable or nearly certain losses
4 lean/likely losses
1 lean/likely win
1 tossup

Based on this highly scientific breakdown it looks like:

5% chance Utah goes 4-8
20% chance Utah goes 5-7
40% chance they go 6-6
20% chance they go 7-5
15% chance they go 8-4

80% confidence in a loss. BYU must be BCS worthy to put the percentage that high. Thanks for the scientific breakdown. Well done.