The State of Utah Football, The Pac-12, and The 2011 Season

[PaloAltoCougar]

80% confidence in a loss. BYU must be BCS worthy to put the percentage that high. Thanks for the scientific breakdown. Well done.

With very rare exceptions, in a BYU-Utah football game I don't think I'd ever give the favorite more than a 60% chance or so. I'm more scientific than ox, so I'd place BYU's likelihood this year at 57.8%. I'd also have a higher percentage for a Utah win in its games against UW, Cal, UCLA and Colorado, but a bit lower against SC, Pitt and Wazzu.

[LA Ute]

With very rare exceptions, in a BYU-Utah football game I don't think I'd ever give the favorite more than a 60% chance or so. I'm more scientific than ox, so I'd place BYU's likelihood this year at 57.8%. I'd also have a higher percentage for a Utah win in its games against UW, Cal, UCLA and Colorado, but a bit lower against SC, Pitt and Wazzu.

I am not scientific at all about the rivalry. All I can say is this: As I walked home from last fall's contest I simply marveled at the wild outcomes that rivalry game has produced almost every season for 20 years or so. I never predict the outcome of that one with any level of certainty.

That said, I am sure we will whip you blue-bellied maggots next fall.

[Top Ute]

With very rare exceptions, in a BYU-Utah football game I don't think I'd ever give the favorite more than a 60% chance or so. I'm more scientific than ox, so I'd place BYU's likelihood this year at 57.8%. I'd also have a higher percentage for a Utah win in its games against UW, Cal, UCLA and Colorado, but a bit lower against SC, Pitt and Wazzu.

Someone needs to wake up oxcoug and tell him it's not 1980 anymore.

[il Padrino Ute]

I am not scientific at all about the rivalry. All I can say is this: As I walked home from last fall's contest I simply marveled at the wild outcomes that rivalry game has produced almost every season for 20 years or so. I never predict the outcome of that one with any level of certainty.

That said, I am sure we will whip you blue-bellied maggots next fall.

You walked home from RES to your place in LA? :rockon2:

[Superdeluxe]

With very rare exceptions, in a BYU-Utah football game I don't think I'd ever give the favorite more than a 60% chance or so. I'm more scientific than ox, so I'd place BYU's likelihood this year at 57.8%. I'd also have a higher percentage for a Utah win in its games against UW, Cal, UCLA and Colorado, but a bit lower against SC, Pitt and Wazzu.

Utah has a better chance to beat UW than Wazzu? huh?

[PaloAltoCougar]

Utah has a better chance to beat UW than Wazzu? huh?

Uh, no. I'd increase Utah's chance of beating UW to around 60% and lower its chances of beating the Lesser Cougs at around 70%, with homefield advantage playing into those numbers. Despite overall incompetence, Wazzu can rise up occasionally and surprise teams at home.

But I'm always willing to concede that on football predictions, I often have no idea what I'm talking about.

[Hot Lunch]

With very rare exceptions, in a BYU-Utah football game I don't think I'd ever give the favorite more than a 60% chance or so. I'm more scientific than ox, so I'd place BYU's likelihood this year at 57.8%. I'd also have a higher percentage for a Utah win in its games against UW, Cal, UCLA and Colorado, but a bit lower against SC, Pitt and Wazzu.

When it comes to the rivalry, outside of just a couple of years I almost always consider the game 50/50 with a slight advantage to the Home team. This year I am giving the Cougs a slight advantage. There is nothing about BYU's team that would make put the percent down that oxcoug did. Your % is much more realistic. You should be a scientist and not an attorney.

[oxcoug]

With very rare exceptions, in a BYU-Utah football game I don't think I'd ever give the favorite more than a 60% chance or so. I'm more scientific than ox, so I'd place BYU's likelihood this year at 57.8%.

It's actually 80.7%, I rounded down from the number produced by the algorithm.

BYU must be BCS worthy

'xactly.

Someone needs to wake up oxcoug and tell him it's not 1980 anymore.

It isn't, yet it is. #9 is at QB and primed to break records and is the 4th QB of the Mendenhall era just like J Mac was the 4th QB of the Edwards era. #20 (Scott Phillips / Josh Quezada) is coming out of the backfield. And there's a president in the White House who won't hesitate to go a little cowboy with commandos unilaterally entering sovereign states.

Feels an awful lot like 1980 if you think about it.

[LA Ute]

You walked home from RES to your place in LA? :rockon2:

No, to where I was staying in Salt Lake. I didn't walk home to L.A. until the next day.

[MartyFunkhouser]

When it comes to the rivalry, outside of just a couple of years I almost always consider the game 50/50 with a slight advantage to the Home team. This year I am giving the Cougs a slight advantage. There is nothing about BYU's team that would make put the percent down that oxcoug did. Your % is much more realistic. You should be a scientist and not an attorney.

I think you are forgetting the 2014 1st pick in the NFL draft Jake Heaps. We really have no chance. oxcoug was kind giving us a 20% chance of winning that game.

[PaloAltoCougar]

...And there's a president in the White House who won't hesitate to go a little cowboy with commandos unilaterally entering sovereign states.

Feels an awful lot like 1980 if you think about it.

Maybe 1981. The White House tenant in 1980 was the brother of the man who brought us Billy Beer. The only thing I can remember Jimmy Carter going cowboy on was a rabbit that attacked his rowboat while he was fishing.

[oxcoug]

I assume there's been some discussion of Kyle's BYU mentions in the interview w/ Urban (Urban, in adolescent middle age, remains allergic to the letters "B", "Y" and "U" in succession) on SC?

And I assume CU and PAC officials know that Kyle pretty decisively called BYU "our rival" before going on to say with a glimmer of pride that the years of acrimony haven't managed to snuff out "come on man! It's my alma mater!"

16.666% of PAC head coaches can say the same.

Maybe 1981. The White House tenant in 1980 was the brother of the man who brought us Billy Beer. The only thing I can remember Jimmy Carter going cowboy on was a rabbit that attacked his rowboat while he was fishing.

1981 it is.

[LA Ute]

I assume there's been some discussion of Kyle's BYU mentions in the interview w/ Urban (Urban, in adolescent middle age, remains allergic to the letters "B", "Y" and "U" in succession) on SC?

And I assume CU and PAC officials know that Kyle pretty decisively called BYU "our rival" before going on to say with a glimmer of pride that the years of acrimony haven't managed to snuff out "come on man! It's my alma mater!"

16.666% of PAC head coaches can say the same.

1981 it is.

I look forward to further analyses from both you and PAC. I want you to spend lots and lots of time thinking about how Urban and Kyle refer to BYU. When may we expect your next report?

[PaloAltoCougar]

I look forward to further analyses from both you and PAC. I want you to spend lots and lots of time thinking about how Urban and Kyle refer to BYU. When may we expect your next report?

Count on me! I always give Utah all of the time, attention and respect that it deserves.

[LA Ute]

Looks like Utah has a commitment from Travis Wilson.

More:

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsutahsports/51797899-59/wilson-utes-quarterback-utah.html.csp

This looks like a very good get for the Utes.