Pass Efficiency Differential wins championships

[Indy Coug]

What needs to be done is convert PED to point spreads and take vegas to the cleaners.

http://www.cougarboard.com/board/mes...tml?id=2279662

[Flystripper]

http://www.cougarboard.com/board/mes...tml?id=2279662

that is helpful. I have some more margin of victory parsing I need to do within the tranches.

[Moliere]

Season	Champion	PED Rank
2000	Oklahoma       	6
2001	Miami (FL)     	2
2002	Ohio State     	12
2003	LSU            	3
2004	USC            	4
2005	Texas          	1
2006	Florida        	6
2007	LSU            	8
2008	Florida        	2
2009	Alabama	        5
2010	Auburn	        7
Average		        5.1

What was Miami's PED in 2002? I'm just saying....

[Top Ute]

Not even close. For starters, Auburn was 33rd in turnover margin this year.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.js...&div=IA&dest=O

2010: Auburn 33
2009: Alabama 4
2008: Florida 2
2007: LSU 2
2006: Florida 37
2005: Texas 27
2004: USC 1
2003: LSU 39; USC 2
2002: Ohio State 18
2001: Miami 1
2000: Oklahoma 30

Average national rank in turnover margin: 16.3 (14.2 if one takes away LSU in 2003).

I bet you could find stats that are far worse of an indicator of team strength than turnover margin.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

It is interesting that it was Auburn's run defense that won the game by stopping LMJ and Barner. Thomas had a career passing day.

I wonder how good teams in the SEC really are at passing the ball.

[Indy Coug]

Updated to include the past two years

Season	Champion	PED Rank
2000	Oklahoma   	6
2001	Miami (FL) 	2
2002	Ohio State 	12
2003	LSU        	3
2004	USC        	4
2005	Texas      	1
2006	Florida    	6
2007	LSU        	8
2008	Florida    	2
2009	Alabama    	5
2010	Auburn     	7
2011	Alabama    	3
2012	Alabama    	1
Average		       4.6

[Pelado]

Updated to include the past two years

Season	Champion	PED Rank
2000	Oklahoma   	6
2001	Miami (FL) 	2
2002	Ohio State 	12
2003	LSU        	3
2004	USC        	4
2005	Texas      	1
2006	Florida    	6
2007	LSU        	8
2008	Florida    	2
2009	Alabama    	5
2010	Auburn     	7
2011	Alabama    	3
2012	Alabama    	1
Average		       4.6

In the last 13 seasons, the team with the best pass efficiency differential failed to win the championship 85% of the time. Not great evidence of the premise.

[Indy Coug]

In the last 13 seasons, the team with the best pass efficiency differential failed to win the championship 85% of the time. Not great evidence of the premise.

It's a lower average ranking than any other statistic.

[Pelado]

It's a lower average ranking than any other statistic.

And yet still not supportive of the premise 85% of the time.

[Indy Coug]

And yet still not supportive of the premise 85% of the time.

Do you see anyone in that list with a bad PED ranking? I rest my case.

[Green Monstah]

This thread reminds me of how much I miss Woot.

[Pelado]

Do you see anyone in that list with a bad PED ranking? I rest my case.

You can go ahead and rest as long as you don't mind an 85% failure rate.