Pass Efficiency Differential wins championships

[Indy Coug]

Season	Champion	PED Rank
2000	Oklahoma       	6
2001	Miami (FL)     	2
2002	Ohio State     	12
2003	LSU            	3
2004	USC            	4
2005	Texas          	1
2006	Florida        	6
2007	LSU            	8
2008	Florida        	2
2009	Alabama	        5
2010	Auburn	        7
Average		        5.1

[woot]

Those are indeed some impressive stats, but I just find it funny that we've gone from "defense wins championships!" to "passing offense and passing defense win championships!" especially considering that one of the best ways to have an efficient passing offense is to be a really good rushing team, and one of the best ways to decrease passing efficiency as a defense is to force the offense to be one dimensional by stuffing the run. We might as well cut to the chase and say "being good on offense and defense wins championships (and special teams are important too)!"

[Indy Coug]

PED = Offensive Pass Efficiency minus Defensive Pass Efficiency

[Maximus]

So all of these teams ranked high in this stat. I am sure they rank high in many other stats as well, why should I conclude that this is THE stat to look at?

[Indy Coug]

especially considering that one of the best ways to have an efficient passing offense is to be a really good rushing team, and one of the best ways to decrease passing efficiency as a defense is to force the offense to be one dimensional by stuffing the run.

The link isn't as strong as you suggest. The correlation coefficient of pass efficiency and average yards per carry is only 0.322.

[Indy Coug]

So all of these teams ranked high in this stat. I am sure they rank high in many other stats as well, why should I conclude that this is THE stat to look at?

Because I said so.

[Indy Coug]

Correlation with Margin of Victory	

Measure	            Correlation Coefficient
Pass efficiency Differential	0.764
Rushing Yards Differential	0.644
Pass efficiency	                0.576
Rushing Yards	                0.519
Yards per Carry Rushing	        0.476
Passing Yards	                0.212
Passing Yards Differential	-0.229
Pass-Run Ratio                	-0.340

[Indy Coug]

Correlation with Passing Efficiency

Measure	        Correlation Coefficient
Passing Yards	           0.538
Rushing Yards	           0.249
Yards per Carry Rushing	   0.241
Rushing Attempts           0.179
Passing Attempts    	  -0.107
Pass-Run Ratio	          -0.160

[Indy Coug]

Correlation of Passing Efficiency with Winning Percentage

Year        Offensive	Defensive	Differential
2000          0.711	    -0.711	0.847
2001          0.649	    -0.690	0.841
2002          0.681	    -0.733	0.867
2003          0.640	    -0.749	0.850

[Blueintheface]

Actuaries.

[Top Ute]

So all of these teams ranked high in this stat. I am sure they rank high in many other stats as well, why should I conclude that this is THE stat to look at?

I'll bet dollars for donuts that outside of W-L, there isn't a single stat for all national champs listed by Indy that averages out to be top 5. I'd guess that turnover margin comes closest.

[woot]

Correlation with Margin of Victory	

Measure	            Correlation Coefficient
Pass efficiency Differential	0.764
Rushing Yards Differential	0.644
Pass efficiency	                0.576
Rushing Yards	                0.519
Yards per Carry Rushing	        0.476
Passing Yards	                0.212
Passing Yards Differential	-0.229
Pass-Run Ratio                	-0.340

Ok that's pretty convincing. How far do you go back though? I have to think the usefulness of this measure has change drastically over the last couple decades and will probably continue to do so.

[Indy Coug]

This was data I compiled writing an article that was published in Total Blue Sports Magazine several years ago.

[Indy Coug]

I'll bet dollars for donuts that outside of W-L, there isn't a single stat for all national champs listed by Indy that averages out to be top 5. I'd guess that turnover margin comes closest.

Not even close. For starters, Auburn was 33rd in turnover margin this year.

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.js...&div=IA&dest=O

[Flystripper]

Ok that's pretty convincing. How far do you go back though? I have to think the usefulness of this measure has change drastically over the last couple decades and will probably continue to do so.

What needs to be done is convert PED to point spreads and take vegas to the cleaners.