Non-BCS team in the title game?

[cougjunkie]

BYU fans who complain about SOS are poor students of their own history. They only cheapen BYU's tradition. BYU more than anyone is the poster child for undeserved rankings because of crappy SOS. In terms of being undefeated and SOS considerations, BYU has never done anything like Utah or Boise have done, especially Utah in 2008. You guys should just be quiet about SOS.

Also, going 8-0 with Utah's schedule is not as easy as Utah has made it look. Just ask Texas, and Bronco.

This has nothing to do with BYU, it has to do with the fact that TCU, Boise and Utah are not 3 of the top 5 teams in the country. Its like people are trying so hard to not show BCS bias they are over compensating.

I am glad BYU is always on your mind though and you still feel the need to compare all of Utahs accomplishments to BYUs.

[Jarid in Cedar]

This has nothing to do with BYU, it has to do with the fact that TCU, Boise and Utah are not 3 of the top 5 teams in the country. Its like people are trying so hard to not show BCS bias they are over compensating.

I am glad BYU is always on your mind though and you still feel the need to compare all of Utahs accomplishments to BYUs.

Sadly, it is not an argument any non-AQ team can overcome. You can have 4 bluebloods in your conference schedule, but you will not be able to offset the SOS drag that your conference schedule imposes.

I don't know whether tcu,bsu, or Utah are worthy of their rankings, but there is not a mechanism that can definitively determine it. This year of all years screams the need of a playoff.

EDIT: I would say that I am surprised that Utah rose from unranked to sixth in both polls by week 9.

My ADR6300 is taking it one game at a time.

[cougjunkie]

Sadly, it is not an argument any non-AQ team can overcome. You can have 4 bluebloods in your conference schedule, but you will not be able to offset the SOS drag that your conference schedule imposes.

I don't know whether tcu,bsu, or Utah are worthy of their rankings, but there is not a mechanism that can definitively determine it. This year of all years screams the need of a playoff.

My ADR6300 is taking it one game at a time.

I agree. The worst part is it seems the MWC is even worse this year than in years past. New Mexico, UNLV and Wyoming rank as 3 of the worst teams in the country. BYU and CSU are also way down. The one thing that does help is that SDSU is having their best season in decades.

[BoylenOver]

It is not good you are correct but Wisconsin is better than any team that these 4 have played not to mention even a Miami team in a down year is better than Pitt and Baylor. Oregon St and Va tech would be a toss up. So I would say 5.

Base it off Sagarin rankings to make it easy. The highest rated team Utah has played is Air Force at 36 (Pitt is 37) that means the computers think that 35 teams with their schedule would be undefeated.

Boise St and TCU have both played Oregon St. They are 15th so 14 teams with their schedules could potentially be undefeated with those schedules.

Wisconsin is 17th so 16 teams would go undefeated. Obviously this is not 100% fool proof but I do think it shows how weak some of the schedules have been this year.

Look at the top 20 teams in the country (taking out TCU, Utah and Boise and according to Sagarin)

Oregon, Stanford, Mizzou, Auburn, Alabama, Arizona, Oklahoma, Iowa, Ohio State, LSU, Oregon State, Ok State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Florida State, Arkansas, USC, South Carolina.

I think all of the above teams have a legit shot of being undefeated with TCU, Utah or Boises schedules.

I wouldn't say Wisconsin is unequivocally better than VaTech or even Oregon St (pre-Rodgers injury), but they're probably better. But regardless, I hate the fact that many people dismiss the SOS of TCU/Utah/Boise and never even question the SOS of a Wisconsin, Ohio St, or even Oregon.

[pelagius]

Base it off Sagarin rankings to make it easy. The highest rated team Utah has played is Air Force at 36 (Pitt is 37) that means the computers think that 35 teams with their schedule would be undefeated.

Junkie, this is not an implication of the Sagarin Model or any computer model. It may seem conterintuitive but you simply can't make that inference based on the ratings. You could say something like, at the very least, the Sagarin ratings would predict 10-14 teams would have a perfect record with Utah's to date schedule (it certainly would have the prediction that the teams ranked above it would be undefeated with the same schedule as Utah). The number might be larger (I doubt much larger than 14) but we would have to simulate it.

It is true that computer models have a hard time estimating the rank of undefeated teams with weak schedules. Thus Utah's estimated rating by any computer model is much noisier than other teams currently rated in the top 20 by computer models. In other words, the computer models would agree that there is a higher probability that Utah is not a top 30 team than than most of the other teams in the top 20.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Quick question, does anyone know how FCS games are counted in SOS? Are they dropped ala RPI in b-ball? Or do they rank the teams all the way down?

My ADR6300 is taking it one game at a time.

[DU Ute]

I agree. The worst part is it seems the MWC is even worse this year than in years past. New Mexico, UNLV and Wyoming rank as 3 of the worst teams in the country. BYU and CSU are also way down. The one thing that does help is that SDSU is having their best season in decades.

Good point. The MWC is basically the WAC with two Boise's this year.

[pelagius]

Quick question, does anyone know how FCS games are counted in SOS? Are they dropped ala RPI in b-ball? Or do they rank the teams all the way down?

My ADR6300 is taking it one game at a time.

Most, probably all, the computer models use games with FCS opponents in the ranking estimation procedure (remember, SOS is not a a direct variable in real computer models ... rather it is something that can be computed after estimation takes place and is implicitly taken into account by the estimation procedure). Thus SOS is affected by FCS games.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Most, probably all, the computer models use games with FCS opponents in the ranking estimation procedure. Thus SOS is affected by FCS games.

So basically you would be better off with an 11 game schedule than to play a FCS team within a 12 game schedule.

My ADR6300 is taking it one game at a time.

[pelagius]

So basically you would be better off with an 11 game schedule than to play a FCS team within a 12 game schedule.

My ADR6300 is taking it one game at a time.

MOV based models: not true at all

W/L based models: not mechanically or automatically true ... However, W/L models are bad and in general what you say is probably true for the median FCS team since the model is forced to throw important information away.

[Jarid in Cedar]

MOV based models: not true

W/L based models: not mechanically true ... probably true for the median FCS team. Might not be true for the top quintile of FCS teams.

Thanks for the explanation, Pelagius. I appreciate your statistical prowess.

My ADR6300 is taking it one game at a time.

[Top Ute]

Look at the top 20 teams in the country (taking out TCU, Utah and Boise and according to Sagarin)

Oregon, Stanford, Mizzou, Auburn, Alabama, Arizona, Oklahoma, Iowa, Ohio State, LSU, Oregon State, Ok State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Florida State, Arkansas, USC, South Carolina.

I think all of the above teams have a legit shot of being undefeated with TCU, Utah or Boises schedules.

You mean the same Oregon State and USC (both with losses to No. 48 Washington) and South Carolina (loss to No. 60 Kentucky) would be undefeated with either Utah's, TCU's or Boise's schedule. With bad losses like that? C'mon now ...

[Surfah]

Brad Edwards just said that even if Utah beats TCU they don't jump Boise State. His main reason being that Utah will not jump Bama (unless Bama loses) in the human polls. He said they're the buffer between Utah and Boise and people are forgetting that Bama is playing a pretty good LSU team this week.

He also said that TCU's best shot at a title game is to win out but also have Baylor win out.

[Top Ute]

Brad Edwards just said that even if Utah beats TCU they don't jump Boise State. His main reason being that Utah will not jump Bama (unless Bama loses) in the human polls. He said they're the buffer between Utah and Boise and people are forgetting that Bama is playing a pretty good LSU team this week.

He also said that TCU's best shot at a title game is to win out but also have Baylor win out.

The difference between TCU and Bama in the polls is far greater than the difference between Bama and Utah. I disagree with Edwards' sentiment. Most voters will simply switch TCU and Utah. With one loss to a decent, not great, SEC team, there's really no place for Bama to go than right where they are.

What's funny will be the justification for keeping either Boise, TCU and/or Utah out of the title game if all three schools have wins over the ACC, Big 12 and Big East champ, respectively.

[Surfah]

The difference between TCU and Bama in the polls is far greater than the difference between Bama and Utah. I disagree with Edwards' sentiment. Most voters will simply switch TCU and Utah. With one loss to a decent, not great, SEC team, there's really no place for Bama to go than right where they are.

What's funny will be the justification for keeping either Boise, TCU and/or Utah out of the title game if all three schools have wins over the ACC, Big 12 and Big East champ, respectively.

Well if Aurburn/Bama win out and Oregon does there will be no discussion of anything.