The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Babs]

I tend to think Oklahoma is merely posturing with the Pac 12 stuff. I'm thinking they want concessions from Texas regarding the LHN. Maybe better revenue sharing? But aren't they one of the "haves" on the revenue sharing thing?

Babs (or anyone else who has a good finger on the pulse of the Oklahoma football program): Assuming Oklahoma is posturing with this, trying to leverage Texas in all this, what are they trying to get out of Texas?

I was talking to some Normanites yesterday, and sounds like nobody can figure it out. Sooners have always benefitted from the non-sharing model, so doesn't seem like it would be that. They may want their own network, but I can't imagine why. Most common guess is that Oklahoma simply doesn't trust the Longhorns to stick around, so it wants to jump ship, well, sooner.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I was talking to some Normanites yesterday, and sounds like nobody can figure it out. Sooners have always benefitted from the non-sharing model, so doesn't seem like it would be that. They may want their own network, but I can't imagine why. Most common guess is that Oklahoma simply doesn't trust the Longhorns to stick around, so it wants to jump ship, well, sooner.

That's the only explanation that makes any sense to me.

[Blueintheface]

I was talking to some Normanites yesterday, and sounds like nobody can figure it out. Sooners have always benefitted from the non-sharing model, so doesn't seem like it would be that. They may want their own network, but I can't imagine why. Most common guess is that Oklahoma simply doesn't trust the Longhorns to stick around, so it wants to jump ship, well, sooner.

That's the only explanation that makes any sense to me.

So ShooGoo was right.

[shoganai]

Most common guess is that Oklahoma simply doesn't trust the Longhorns to stick around, so it wants to jump ship, well, sooner.

And that is exactly where the waters get murky. So, since Texas insists that it will go nowhere as long as the Big 12 is viable, and since it is presumably viable indefinitely as long as both it and OU are fully committed, why would Oklahoma fear that Texas is going to jet first?

Where, exactly, would Texas go?

Read between the lines and you can see even ESPN has been asking the exact same question very discretely behind the scenes.

So we have...

-ESPN quietly putting its name on a seemingly obscure FOIA lawsuit that somehow never makes the news.

-A few months later, ESPN agrees to pay as much for Texas' scanty third-tier rights, as they're paying other BCS teams for full-scale first- and second-tier packages.

-UT constantly claiming that it is trying restlessly to save the Big 12.

-Teams closest to Texas jumping ship left and right for no apparent reason other than a distrust of the Longhorns.

This is all leading to one place...

[KillerDog]

I was talking to some Normanites yesterday, and sounds like nobody can figure it out. Sooners have always benefitted from the non-sharing model, so doesn't seem like it would be that. They may want their own network, but I can't imagine why. Most common guess is that Oklahoma simply doesn't trust the Longhorns to stick around, so it wants to jump ship, well, sooner.

Unless, of course, the Oklahoma to the Pac posturing isn't aimed at Texas. Recall it was leaked by Orangebloods as well as Oklahoma. Could it be that Texas and Oklahoma are trying to scare the lesser Big XII teams and BYU into taking a worse deal? Could it be they are trying to make ND see that super conferences are on the horizon? Could it be they are flirting with some teams in the Pac and ACC to JOIN the Big XII and they are using this as misdirection? Lots of possibilities.

[TripletDaddy]

Unless, of course, the Oklahoma to the Pac posturing isn't aimed at Texas. Recall it was leaked by Orangebloods as well as Oklahoma. Could it be that Texas and Oklahoma are trying to scare the lesser Big XII teams and BYU into taking a worse deal? Could it be they are trying to make ND see that super conferences are on the horizon? Could it be they are flirting with some teams in the Pac and ACC to JOIN the Big XII and they are using this as misdirection? Lots of possibilities.

Interesting idea. So you think that right now all of this chaos and instability is by design to convince PAC schools to leave the PAC and join the B12?

[SoCalCoug]

Unless, of course, the Oklahoma to the Pac posturing isn't aimed at Texas. Recall it was leaked by Orangebloods as well as Oklahoma. Could it be that Texas and Oklahoma are trying to scare the lesser Big XII teams and BYU into taking a worse deal? Could it be they are trying to make ND see that super conferences are on the horizon? Could it be they are flirting with some teams in the Pac and ACC to JOIN the Big XII and they are using this as misdirection? Lots of possibilities.

Yeah. it all smacks of posturing to me, but as I think through it, I'm not sure I have a good handle on what Oklahoma is trying to leverage out of this.

[Mormon Red Death]

Unless, of course, the Oklahoma to the Pac posturing isn't aimed at Texas. Recall it was leaked by Orangebloods as well as Oklahoma. Could it be that Texas and Oklahoma are trying to scare the lesser Big XII teams and BYU into taking a worse deal? Could it be they are trying to make ND see that super conferences are on the horizon? Could it be they are flirting with some teams in the Pac and ACC to JOIN the Big XII and they are using this as misdirection? Lots of possibilities.

What Pac-12 school would entertain leaving?

[Blueintheface]

And that is exactly where the waters get murky. So, since Texas insists that it will go nowhere as long as the Big 12 is viable, and since it is presumably viable indefinitely as long as both it and OU are fully committed, why would Oklahoma fear that Texas is going to jet first?

Where, exactly, would Texas go?

Read between the lines and you can see even ESPN has been asking the exact same question very discretely behind the scenes.

So we have...

-ESPN quietly putting its name on a seemingly obscure FOIA lawsuit that somehow never makes the news.

-A few months later, ESPN agrees to pay as much for Texas' scanty third-tier rights, as they're paying other BCS teams for full-scale first- and second-tier packages.

-UT constantly claiming that it is trying restlessly to save the Big 12.

-Teams closest to Texas jumping ship left and right for no apparent reason other than a distrust of the Longhorns.

This is all leading to one place...

Mordor?

[pellegrino]

Mordor?

Count your fingers, Frodo!

[shoganai]

Mordor?

I'm slightly embarrassed that I even understood that reference on first reading...

[Omaha 680]

I was talking to some Normanites yesterday, and sounds like nobody can figure it out. Sooners have always benefitted from the non-sharing model, so doesn't seem like it would be that. They may want their own network, but I can't imagine why. Most common guess is that Oklahoma simply doesn't trust the Longhorns to stick around, so it wants to jump ship, well, sooner.

That's the only explanation that makes any sense to me.

I agree. After trying to digest everything that has been reported, leaked, and rumored, I'm convinced that Oklahoma and Texas would both rather be in the Big 12 (for now) if they could make it work. But Oklahoma doesn't trust Texas to not jump to the Big 10 or somewhere else with ND if the opportunity is right a few years. So Oklahoma is trying to preempt that move by going to the PAC and wants to bring Texas with. The ACC talk is Texas answering saying they'll never go to the PAC, so Oklahoma will have to go by themselves if they're serious about it.

The only question that remains for me is if the PAC will admit the Oklahoma schools without Texas. I tend to think that Oklahoma has assurances they are in otherwise they wouldn't be so public about it. But others swear that the PAC would never take them (especially Oklahoma State) unless Texas came as well.

Of course there are a million other possibilities as to what this all means. But this is the one that makes the most sense with all the rumors.

[Jeff Lebowski]

So ShooGoo was right.

Not sure. What did he say?

[Paperback Writer]

I've been tooting this horn for a little while now. Independence is the way of the future for the most powerful teams in college sports simply because the conference revenue model will be obsolete when broadband TV and school-specific networks hit certain saturation points.

Scheduling difficulties, bowl tie-ins, motivation, etc. - none of them are the real reasons few teams are still independent. The actual reason is TV revenue. Once it becomes clear that the maximum revenue no longer exists in conferences, but in proprietary networks, then the era of conferences - and super conferences - is over as we know it.

I'll just offer an opposing opinion with an example. While revenue is at the core of it all, there is a content problem with an independent, proprietary network. There's only so much material and programming to be offerred before saturation and re-runs take its toll. A solution to this is a conference network like the BTN. Fans are always interested in learning more about other teams on the schedule. If I'm a Buckeye fan, I might also consider subscribing to a Michigan channel but I'm not serious about subscribing to Indiana, Purdue, Penn St., etc. But give me the entire Big Ten for a few extra dollars and you got a deal. Consider the the college football fan in Indiana. Paying to watch his Hoosiers play lousy football may be too much, but if he gets to watch Ohio St., Michigan, and Penn St., along with Indiana then that's not a bad deal.

As far as branding, it really depends on the conference. And the example I mentioned earlier is Nebraska. Nebraska wants to be on the BTN and the Huskers want the words "Nebraska" and "Big Ten" mentioned together as much as possible. Why? Because Nebraska has an underrated academic reputation - they want and need the branding of a Big Ten school.

That's where I think Texas gets it wrong with the LHN. If the Longhorns really wanted Big 12 solidarity they would have continued to support a Big 12 network. A Big 12 network would bring in more revenue then the LHN and provide much more content. With 10 or 12 teams, a Big 12 network might even garner interest in Big Ten country. Not so when it's just Texas. The problem is that Texas can get more revenue from the LHN then from a Big 12 network. The Longhorns essentially operate as an independent and then wonder why nobody else with options want to be in the same conference with them.

[Blueintheface]

Not sure. What did he say?

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