The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Uncle Ted]

Late to this thread; but 25 pages is impressive. A few informed thoughts:

Arkansas is not leaving the SEC. The Big XII is morphing into the SWC II and Arkansas has already experienced that...and opted to leave for the SEC.

Yes, Arkansas doesn't ever want to suck off Bevo's hind teat again. While it would be good for Arkansas' recruiting to dip in the Texas pool now and then I don't see them coming back any time soon either. Arkansas is very happy in the SEC even though they may never get to go to a BCS bowl.

If Notre Dame joins a conference for football, and I doubt the Irish do after this last round of expansion, they will join the Big Ten. I highly doubt Notre Dame ever joins the Big XII.

If ND's TV ratings continue to slide then they might have to think about joining a conference at some point. The Big Ten makes a lot of sense for ND but they might like being in more of a "libertarian" conference like the Big 12 where they can have their own network and have some of their own contracts on the side. I found it kind of interesting that the Pac-12 is giving USC and UCLA and extra $2M each now. I don't think ND, however, is looking to join a conference any time soon.

If 16-team super conferences are the future of college football, the Big XII is toast. Kansas and Missouri will be considered by the Big Ten. Oklahoma and Texas A&M will be considered by the SEC. Texas will go anywhere it wants.

Not sure where that leaves BYU. The Big XII needs to take the offensive and add BYU and another team. The ideal team would have been TCU but the Big XII South can't seem to do what's in their own best interests for future stability of the conference. And that has been the Big XII's real problem all along - difficulty in placing the best interests of the conference over that of individual institutions. For example, the best thing that Tech and Baylor could have done was lobby Texas and A&M to include TCU (along with BYU) but those schools are too worried about what it would do to their own recruiting in Texas. Instead, Baylor and Tech could very well be left out of a major conference once all the seats are taken at the table.

TCU doesn't add a lot for the Big 12. Recall they couldn't even get 50,000 fans to show up to the Oregon State game at JerryWorld even after throwing out $25 tickets last minute. The Big East is hurting for some football teams. It looks like they will be sending UConn with four loses to the BCS this year. I am not sure how long the BCS will put up with that.

I think TCU's move to the Big East does still put some pressure on the Big 12 to expand, however. I don't believe the Big East is done expanding just yet. They only have eight football teams currently. Ten seems like a better number and would give the Big East some relief in scheduling non-conference games. Right now each team five non-conference games a year.

As for 16 team conferences I am not sure if the TV networks would allow it. This is the whole reason they stepped in and messed up the "surf and turf" Pac-16 expansion.

[creekster]

Yes, Arkansas doesn't ever want to suck off Bevo's hind teat again.

If Bevo has a teat it might explain what happened to the team in Austin this year.

[Uncle Ted]

If Bevo has a teat it might explain what happened to the team in Austin this year.

Yes, they might be serving up Bevo steaks after the BYU game in Austin this next year.

[Paperback Writer]

I don't agree with anything in this post except that Arkansas won't leave the SEC.

Everyone has a different view. My view comes from following the Big 8 and then the Big XII for 30+ years. Been in every stadium. And the Big XII is on shaky ground. It's shaky for the same reason why the MWC is imploding, a lousy TV deal.

If Texas wants to keep the Big XII intact, then it will be a stable conference. Nebraska wasn't willing to take that chance. BYU might not have any better options. Personally, I'd like to see BYU in a stable Big XII.

[Uncle Ted]

Does BYU's contract with ESPN have an out clause if BYU joins a BCS conference? I am pretty sure it does but was wondering if anyone knows.

I am guessing that ESPN would just modify the contract into something like they gave Texas.

[Surfah]

Everyone has a different view. My view comes from following the Big 8 and then the Big XII for 30+ years. Been in every stadium. And the Big XII is on shaky ground. It's shaky for the same reason why the MWC is imploding, a lousy TV deal.

If Texas wants to keep the Big XII intact, then it will be a stable conference. Nebraska wasn't willing to take that chance. BYU might not have any better options. Personally, I'd like to see BYU in a stable Big XII.

I agree that the Big 12's situation is a bit tenuous at best. I just don't think that TCU was ever or should have ever been considered. They're a stone's throw from conference HQ and they couldn't get a sniff. TCU is not a good fit for the Big 12 for numerous reasons including lack of following and saturation.

Like Uncle Ted said Notre Dame may have to consider conference affiliation shortly. And I don't think it's Big 10 or nothing. In fact Brian Kelly has mentioned more than once that the Big 12 is more attractive simply because the recruiting footprint is far superior to the Big 10's. But I think ultimately ND would like to remain as independent as possible if it had to join up. No conference would be more accommodating in that regard than the Big 12. Hell the Big 12 would allow them to keep their NBC deal.

Super conferences are not the future.

I do think that the Big 12 needs a championship game. I think they're already understanding this and will work this offseason to somehow pressure the NCAA into allowing them to have one with just 10 teams (not likely) or expand. I am hopeful that one of those teams will be BYU. And frankly I expect it to. Of the non-AQs they're the most BCS-like (following, tradition, facilities, success in revenue and olympic sports) even more so than BCS bound TCU and Utah and anyone who cares to dispute that is in denial. I don't know who the other team will be. Arkansas isn't going anywhere. And not because of the instability of the Big 12. But because they're in the mother of all conferences. I am not sure ND is ready to bite the bullet, but I am sure they'll be or are being courted. Louisville is the one other team that I think makes the most sense. This is all just my own speculation. Ideally I'd love to see us in the Big 12 North with ND.

[beefytee]

Arkansas is not leaving the SEC. The Big XII is morphing into the SWC II and Arkansas has already experienced that...and opted to leave for the SEC.

Like Surfah, I disagree with this except Arkansas not leaving.

If anything the SEC is looking like the SWC II with all the NCAA investigations and the chance of Auburn receiving the death penalty with the Pay 4 Play rumors going around.

[Paperback Writer]

If ND's TV ratings continue to slide then they might have to think about joining a conference at some point. The Big Ten makes a lot of sense for ND but they might like being in more of a "libertarian" conference like the Big 12 where they can have their own network and have some of their own contracts on the side. I found it kind of interesting that the Pac-12 is giving USC and UCLA and extra $2M each now. I don't think ND, however, is looking to join a conference any time soon.

I think "capitalist" is a more fitting term than "libertarian" for the Big XII. Notre Dame has no incentive to join a conference as long as they can continue to schedule quality games. I don't know if they will see a need to develop their own TV network since they already have NBC. The only reason they would forgo independence in football is to make more $$$ in a conference. And that doesn't appear to be their primary motivation since they could have had a chance to do just that by joining the Big Ten and opted not to. If Notre Dame changes their mind, the money will always be better in the Big Ten than the Big XII.

TCU doesn't add a lot for the Big 12. Recall they couldn't even get 50,000 fans to show up to the Oregon State game at JerryWorld even after throwing out $25 tickets last minute. The Big East is hurting for some football teams. It looks like they will be sending UConn with four loses to the BCS this year. I am not sure how long the BCS will put up with that.

I think TCU's move to the Big East does still put some pressure on the Big 12 to expand, however. I don't believe the Big East is done expanding just yet. They only have eight football teams currently. Ten seems like a better number and would give the Big East some relief in scheduling non-conference games. Right now each team five non-conference games a year.

As for 16 team conferences I am not sure if the TV networks would allow it. This is the whole reason they stepped in and messed up the "surf and turf" Pac-16 expansion.

The only reason I advocated TCU to the Big XII was because there was no one else better to join with BYU. Agree that TCU adds little but it would have gotten the Big XII back to 12 teams and a CG. And that would mean more TV revenue with BYU in the fold. At least it would have been proactive.

Also have my doubts that 16-team conferences are a sure thing. I think odds are against it for the reason you cite - TV networks. Perhaps TCU in the Big East will give it more legitimacy for AQ purposes. It was getting hard for the Big East to continue to justify a AQ spot after losing Miami and Virginia Tech while the MWC went without. Wish there was another decent program to partner with BYU into the Big XII but I don't see one.

[Sizzle]

I do think that the Big 12 needs a championship game.

I agree and this is why I've always felt that BYU to the Big 12 makes sense and seems to be more of a matter of if than when.

Reasons why the Big 12 needs a championship game:

1) Additional revenue (TV and Tickets): Money talks, right? And with the baddest Football stadium in the world (and I hate the Cowboys) hosting the game, why not.
2) Additional exposure: You think it makes sense to not play during conference championship week? Out of sight, out of mind is not where you want to be when you are trying to get into a National Championship game that is influenced by voters and computers. This gets voters eyes on your team where there are only a limited number of games.
3) Boost in schedule strength to its champion: And this gets the attention of the computers. Picking up a win against a (likely) top-25 team late in the season is a good way to give your schedule strength and BCS number a boost.

When you look at the footprint of where the Big 12 is at and could expand, in my opinion (and it may be biased) there is not another team that brings as much to the table as BYU does. As important as Basketball is, Football is the primary driver behind conference expansion. And when it comes to Football, what other team can list the following accomplishments:

1) National Championship (Put an asterisk on it if you want, but the trophy is in Provo and I didn't put it there)
2) Heisman Trophy Winner
3) 28 Bowl Appearances
4) 15 top-25 finishes in the last 30 years
5) Winners of the Doak Walker, Davey O'Brien, Sammy Baugh and Outland Trophies

Not to mention a built in National following and a fan base that (while at times is delusional) travels pretty well. And while the University itself isn't a "research" institution, it consistently ranks well as one of the top 100 universities in the country with an MBA program that ranks in the top 10 Nationally. By no means is it on the level of Ivy League schools, but it isn't going to be bringing a conference like the Big 12 down Academically.

I've already said I'm probably biased, but in my eyes, the hold up for the Big 12 is finding the 12th team to invite. Boise doesn't have quite the history, though recently they have had more buzz in the College Football world than BYU (and have accomplished more, though the Y hasn't been a slouch). The remainder of their sports aren't up to snuff, and Boise State isn't exactly a great Academic institution. Air Force may be an interesting add, though service academies aren't exactly BCS "fits" they have accomplished less than Boise and aren't exactly great in the other sports. New Mexico? UNLV? SDSU? Just not buying it. And sorry Wyoming or CSU, it ain't happening. That's about it for the West.

Looking east, would a school like Louisville want to move to the Big 12? What is more appealing for Louisville about the Big 12 than the Big East? I'm not sure I can answer that. What about SMU? Houston? If the Big 12 didn't want to add TCU, neither of those programs make sense to me. Memphis would be a good fit in Basketball, but not really in Football. UCF may be interesting because it opens up Florida for recruiting, but they really are a bit of an outlier.

I think this is the biggest issue. BYU seems like a pretty good fit. But if BYU comes, who comes with them?

[Paperback Writer]

I agree that the Big 12's situation is a bit tenuous at best. I just don't think that TCU was ever or should have ever been considered. They're a stone's throw from conference HQ and they couldn't get a sniff. TCU is not a good fit for the Big 12 for numerous reasons including lack of following and saturation.

I agree. However TCU could have been that team to partner BYU with into the Big XII. The problem is that there are no other candidates (other than BYU) that are even close. I'll have to look at Louisville though.

Like Uncle Ted said Notre Dame may have to consider conference affiliation shortly. And I don't think it's Big 10 or nothing. In fact Brian Kelly has mentioned more than once that the Big 12 is more attractive simply because the recruiting footprint is far superior to the Big 10's. But I think ultimately ND would like to remain as independent as possible if it had to join up. No conference would be more accommodating in that regard than the Big 12. Hell the Big 12 would allow them to keep their NBC deal.

So when Notre Dame plays Michigan or Notre Dame plays Texas...ABC and FoxSports is going to allow NBC to air the game? Any time Notre Dame plays it will be aired nationally...even if it's a crappy game like Purdue...and ABC/FoxSports will want to televise it. Or will the Big XII just acquiesce and allow Notre Dame to join but televise all their games on NBC without sharing the revenue?

I'll dispute the far superior recruiting footprint of the Big XII versus the Big Ten but I'm no HC so Brian Kelly is probably onto something. Perhaps he'll increase his total of 4 football players from Texas currently on the ND roster. My analysis of the 2010 recuiting class signing with BCS+ schools show 279 from Big XII states and 265 from Big Ten states.

Super conferences are not the future.

I do think that the Big 12 needs a championship game. I think they're already understanding this and will work this offseason to somehow pressure the NCAA into allowing them to have one with just 10 teams (not likely) or expand. I am hopeful that one of those teams will be BYU. And frankly I expect it to. Of the non-AQs they're the most BCS-like (following, tradition, facilities, success in revenue and olympic sports) even more so than BCS bound TCU and Utah and anyone who cares to dispute that is in denial. I don't know who the other team will be. Arkansas isn't going anywhere. And not because of the instability of the Big 12. But because they're in the mother of all conferences. I am not sure ND is ready to bite the bullet, but I am sure they'll be or are being courted. Louisville is the one other team that I think makes the most sense. This is all just my own speculation. Ideally I'd love to see us in the Big 12 North with ND.

I'd like to see the Big XII with Notre Dame and BYU as well. Actually, my preference was BYU in the Big XII taking Colorado's spot and Notre Dame (rather than Nebraska) joining the Big Ten. Maybe Loiuisville is more respectable than I had thought since I don't think Notre Dame will be joining the Big XII party.

[Surfah]

Looking east, would a school like Louisville want to move to the Big 12? What is more appealing for Louisville about the Big 12 than the Big East? I'm not sure I can answer that. What about SMU? Houston? If the Big 12 didn't want to add TCU, neither of those programs make sense to me. Memphis would be a good fit in Basketball, but not really in Football. UCF may be interesting because it opens up Florida for recruiting, but they really are a bit of an outlier.

I think this is the biggest issue. BYU seems like a pretty good fit. But if BYU comes, who comes with them?

That's the million dollar, well multi-million dollar question. You're right that Houston and SMU make as much sense as TCU which is zero. Really the best other fits are Arkansas, Notre Dame, and Louisville/Cincinnati (the same to me) IMO. And I'd put them in that order. The problem is Arkansas isn't going anywhere so though they're probably the best "fit" they're out. If Notre Dame is willing to sacrifice their independence then obviously they're a great fit. However, that's a ginormous "if". Louisville and Cincy are up next. They're not the best fit and I am not sure if they could be lured away form Big East basketball. But the way they're expanding I think it could entice them to bolt. They're barely clinging to AQ status in the BCS. Someone else that comes to mind is Air Force. With TAMU I think they could be a great fit. Not sure how well the other sports translate though. Which begs the question would the Big 12 be interested in a football only deal? I would really like to see BYU in the Big 12 in all sports.

[Surfah]

Actually my ideal mate for the Big 12 would have been Utah.

[LA Ute]

Actually my ideal mate for the Big 12 would have been Utah.

I always thought so too but the TV market thing is a problem, I guess.

[Uncle Ted]

That's the million dollar, well multi-million dollar question. You're right that Houston and SMU make as much sense as TCU which is zero. Really the best other fits are Arkansas, Notre Dame, and Louisville/Cincinnati (the same to me) IMO. And I'd put them in that order. The problem is Arkansas isn't going anywhere so though they're probably the best "fit" they're out. If Notre Dame is willing to sacrifice their independence then obviously they're a great fit. However, that's a ginormous "if". Louisville and Cincy are up next. They're not the best fit and I am not sure if they could be lured away form Big East basketball. But the way they're expanding I think it could entice them to bolt. They're barely clinging to AQ status in the BCS. Someone else that comes to mind is Air Force. With TAMU I think they could be a great fit. Not sure how well the other sports translate though. Which begs the question would the Big 12 be interested in a football only deal? I would really like to see BYU in the Big 12 in all sports.

Louisville or Air Force would be better than SMU or Houston. Houston averages around 25,000 fans for home games and their academics are not that good. SMU academics are much better but they only have average of about 21,000 per home game. Louisville and Cincy are both around 33,000 fans per home game. Air Force averages around 35,000. Of course, even Baylor which averages the lowest in the Big 12 has 36,000 for home games. None of these teams makes up for 85,000+ Huskers that show up to see a sold out game at Memorial Stadium. It would take Notre Dame to do that.

[Sizzle]

I always thought so too but the TV market thing is a problem, I guess.

From straight up size, it isn't a huge issue with just under 1 million homes and ranking as the 31st largest TV DMA. So as far as TV DMAs are concerned, the SLC DMA isn't a horrible one.

For comparisons, New York is about 7.5 million homes, LA is about 5.6 million homes and Chicago is 3.5 million homes. Those three are the biggest ones. Comparable DMAs are Portland (1.1 million ranked 22), Pittsburg (1.1 million ranked 23), Baltimore (1 million ranked 27), Kansas City (.94 million, ranked 32), Cincinnati (.91 million, ranked 33).

The problem with the SLC DMA is that it is so dang big geographically. It essentially encompasses all of Utah, parts of Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho and Wyoming. And there isn't another major DMA that it really joins with. The Denver DMA is big at 1.5 million (ranked 15th) but Salt Lake and Denver are separated by these things called the Rocky Mountains, so you don't get much interest in neighboring DMAs. For example, Oklahoma City is a smaller DMA than Salt Lake at only 694,000 households (ranked 45) but with Oklahoma City, you've got the Tulsa DMA with its 528,000 households which would rank it as about the 20th largest DMA, and that doesn't take into account surrounding Texas/Arkansas DMAs that also cover parts of Oklahoma.

The one draw BYU has though, is the pockets of interest at some level from many members of the LDS church throughout the country. If you were to assign a number to the total number of LDS members in the USA, I believe it is about 5.5 million people. If you allow for about 3.5 members in the average household (maybe a somewhat random number, but the average US Household size is 2.6 and if LDS are slightly higher, 3.5 isn't too far off) the estimated number of "Households" would be about 1.6 million, or enough to put it at about the 16th largest TV DMA... just spread across the country.

Anyways. I always hear people throwing out TV market size and I hoped to shed a little insight and perspective into what it means, as well as quantify. I probably rambled too much for it to be coherent though, so apologies in advance.