The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[beelzebabette]

You can all mock me if I am wrong but here is what I think will happen.

BYU gets invited to the Big 12 in August some time, if it does not happen independence is a legit option. If they choose to stay in the MWC BYU would demand a reworking of the mtn contract.

Flame away.

Maybe they can invite a few more teams to make the MWC a 16-team conference, then bolt & create a new conference a few years later. That'd be sweet, and no one would see it coming.

[Jarid in Cedar]

You can all mock me if I am wrong but here is what I think will happen.

BYU gets invited to the Big 12 in August some time, if it does not happen independence is a legit option. If they choose to stay in the MWC BYU would demand a reworking of the mtn contract.

Flame away.

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[Hot Lunch]

You can all mock me if I am wrong but here is what I think will happen.

BYU gets invited to the Big 12 in August some time, if it does not happen independence is a legit option. If they choose to stay in the MWC BYU would demand a reworking of the mtn contract.

Flame away.

How can BYU do this? The only threat they have is Independence which I think the league will just laugh and say, "good luck with that". They don't have the power Texas has. I am one that thinks there is no way BYU can survive and being competitive as and Independent.

I also don't think that this is a money thing with BYU. BYU's athletic department doesn't need the money and I don't think that is why they want into the the Big 12. The money is nice but it isn't what is driving this. They want to be competing at the highest level.

[Bengal Cougar]

How can BYU do this? The only threat they have is Independence which I think the league will just laugh and say, "good luck with that". They don't have the power Texas has. I am one that thinks there is no way BYU can survive and being competitive as and Independent.

I also don't think that this is a money thing with BYU. BYU's athletic department doesn't need the money and I don't think that is why they want into the the Big 12. The money is nice but it isn't what is driving this. They want to be competing at the highest level.

Somehow I doubt the MWC would say good luck with that, if they lose BYU after losing Utah they will suffer tremendously

I agree money is not the main issue, being able to compete at the highest level is. But I am sure they would not complain about the extra money.

And overall no BYU could not survive as an independent in any sport except maybe football, that's why I think the rest of the sports would go to the WAC. I think BYU knows that staying in the MWC means a slow death.

[Hot Lunch]

Somehow I doubt the MWC would say good luck with that, if they lose BYU after losing Utah they will suffer tremendously

I agree money is not the main issue, being able to compete at the highest level is. But I am sure they would not complain about the extra money.

And overall no BYU could not survive as an independent in any sport except maybe football, that's why I think the rest of the sports would go to the WAC. I think BYU knows that staying in the MWC means a slow death.

I think Independence is an even quicker death and that is why I think the conference would just laugh at them. You are right that the MWC needs BYU but the MWC is all BYU has so you could say that BYU needs the MWC as well.

[Bengal Cougar]

I think Independence is an even quicker death and that is why I think the conference would just laugh at them. You are right that the MWC needs BYU but the MWC is all BYU has so you could say that BYU needs the MWC as well.

I think BYU is willing to try and make some thing happen for themselves, going independent could be one way of doing that. Why does BYU need the MWC if they know they will become more irrelevant by staying in the MWC as time goes on?

[All-American]

I think BYU is willing to try and make some thing happen for themselves, goingn independent could be one way of doing that. Why does BYU need the MWC if they know they will become more irrelevant by staying in the MWC as time goes on?

A person with a terminal disease who will certainly die within the year may still need the life support machine in the meantime.

[Hot Lunch]

I think BYU is willing to try and make some thing happen for themselves, goingn independent could be one way of doing that. Why does BYU need the MWC if they know they will become more irrelevant by staying in the MWC as time goes on?

Right now it is either MWC or Independence. They don't have any other options. I personally think that Independence is a much quicker death and they will be just as irrelevant or more by going that route.

[Bengal Cougar]

Right now it is either MWC or Independence. They don't have any other options. I personally think that Independence is a much quicker death and they will be just as irrelevant or more by going that route.

I think the Big 12 is still a possiblity, I will even say that it is likely. And as I said you are all free to mock me if I am wrong.

[Bengal Cougar]

A person with a terminal disease who will certainly die within the year may still need the life support machine in the meantime.

Might as well go down swinging looking for that miracle cure to save you from death.

[jay santos]

Somehow I doubt the MWC would say good luck with that, if they lose BYU after losing Utah they will suffer tremendously

I agree money is not the main issue, being able to compete at the highest level is. But I am sure they would not complain about the extra money.

And overall no BYU could not survive as an independent in any sport except maybe football, that's why I think the rest of the sports would go to the WAC. I think BYU knows that staying in the MWC means a slow death.

If BYU had a Big 12 offer, it would leave. Regardless if the MWC gave them a better cut of MWC money or not.

If I were Wyoming, CSU, etc. I would call BYU's bluff if going independent was their threat.

The only thing BYU could really do is create a new conference with other BCS leftovers and define a new revenue sharing policy. But that would be hard to pull off.

If I'm Wyoming, CSU, etc, I need BYU desperately, but at the same time I know BYU has no negotiating leverage, so I tell BYU to f*** off.

[Bengal Cougar]

If BYU had a Big 12 offer, it would leave. Regardless if the MWC gave them a better cut of MWC money or not.

If I were Wyoming, CSU, etc. I would call BYU's bluff if going independent was their threat.

The only thing BYU could really do is create a new conference with other BCS leftovers and define a new revenue sharing policy. But that would be hard to pull off.

If I'm Wyoming, CSU, etc, I need BYU desperately, but at the same time I know BYU has no negotiating leverage, so I tell BYU to f*** off.

Of course BYU would leave to the Big 12 if we get the offer, I never suggested otherwise.

And if your Wyoming or CSU you don't have the power to call BYU's bluff, you can't risk them being serious about leaving or you are really screwed.

[jay santos]

Of course BYU would leave to the Big 12 if we get the offer, I never suggested otherwise.

And if your Wyoming or CSU you don't have the power to call BYU's bluff, you can't risk them being serious about leaving or you are really screwed.

There has to be a real option for BYU to leave for Wyoming or CSU to take them seriously, no matter how serious the consequences of losing BYU.

[statman]

I also can't imagine the Big 12 waits at least 7 years to expand.

The championship game is worth $20 million a year. It might even be more now that it's played at Jerry's House. No way in a million years they let it die.

They'll announce their expansion soon enough that they'll replace Colorado and Nebraska as they leave. It's just too much to let it go.

Who do you replace those two with? In order, I'd say ND (it'll NEVER happen), Arkansas (about a 5% likelihood - SEC gives a lot more $$$ than Big XII), BYU / Louisville (about equal footing), a bunch of other undesirable alternatives.

What the Big XII doesn't want is another Texas team, nor do they want to let the SEC into Texas for a game to use as a recruiting tool.

The big problem - inviting Louisville would be a GUTSY move. If expansion happens as other leagues have said it might ( SEC, Big 10+2 & ACC have all talked publicly about moving to 16 teams), the Big East would disappear overnight. Here's a strawman - Big 10 takes Pitt, WVa & Cincinnati SEC takes Louisville & S Florida, ACC takes Rutgers, Syracuse & UConn. Change the players around as you like, but they all disappear to the SEC/ACC/Big10+2.

If The Big XII inserts itself in that mess, it's going to lose a team to one of those three leagues, no question about it. Heck, they might lose a team anyway (A&M to SEC, Missou to Big 10+2, etc) but if they take Louisville, it's GUARANTEED. If they leave it alone, they might stay intact. So they'll let sleeping dogs lie. They won't touch Louisville.

The trouble is, if you eliminate Louisville from the mix, after BYU, there's no other really attractive team out there.

TCU seems like a great fit. But no Texas teams. TCU will add exactly $0 in TV revenue, and will add to the recruiting pressure cooker that already exists in TX - especially in DFW. TCU would be a BAD add for the Big XII.

SMU/Houston/Rice/UTEP? Less attractive versions of TCU.

Memphis? Nice BB add, fits reasonably well geographically, but nothing for football.

New Mexico? Yuck. Kinda like Memphis, but not as good at basketball.

Tulsa? Barf.

Tulane? Puke.

Southern Miss? POSSIBLY.

Air Force? Air Force? Air Force? Maybe. Probably the best available option. Nice fan base (everyone likes Armed Forces teams!), won't embarrass the league, won't whine non-stop like those Buffalo bitches, but they're not that good at anything. They don't add much. No big negatives, but no real positives either...

So BYU waits until the Big XII decides which of the ugly step sisters will be the other belle of the ball...



(The one other bad thing for the Big XII is that the SEC, in it's expansion to 16, could always grab a TX team that the Big XII left out. How pissed would the Big XII be if the SEC invited TCU!? An SEC team in the middle of the heart of the Big XII. If I were the head of the SEC and I was seriously looking to expand to 16, I'd DEFINITELY have TCU on my radar).

[jay santos]

The championship game is worth $20 million a year. It might even be more now that it's played at Jerry's House. No way in a million years they let it die.

I'm not sure I believe the $20M number. I've heard more like half that or less. But let's assume $20M

Let's say the distribution now is $20M per teams. That's $200M/10 per team.

$200M/10 > $220M/12

See the problem?