The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Jeff Lebowski]

Is there really fan ‘interest’ outside of 40-50 programs? Not real fan internet to move the needle television/streaming wise.

Nobody cares about Indiana v Minnesota or Vanderbilt v Mississippi State or Cal v Wazzou.

People cared about Oklahoma and Texas against regional opponents yet Oklahoma and Texas decided to be second rate citizens in a conference that neither of them will win over the next 8-10 years.

Oh boy. Why do you have to make so many bad posts on this topic?

Texas's top rivals are Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. No other schools come close. You could maybe make an argument for Texas Tech for spot #4. Texas was losing top recruits to A&M because they were in the SEC, which is precisely why the aggies tried to keep them out.

[fusnik]

Oh boy. Why do you have to make so many bad posts on this topic?

Texas's top rivals are Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. No other schools come close. You could maybe make an argument for Texas Tech for spot #4. Texas was losing top recruits to A&M because they were in the SEC, which is precisely why the aggies tried to keep them out.

Arkansas and Oklahoma and A&M, in other words regional opponents.

Funny you should mention Tech

https://theathletic.com/3438644/2022...wership/?amp=1

Texas and Oklahoma are trading games against Tech and TCU and Iowa State for at least 4x viewership vs Auburn and Georgia and Florida. That means more money for the conference.

Texas and Oklahoma left a solid conference where they were the premier football programs to join a conference where they might be the 5th place team with new head coaches to get access to these games for more money. Nobody believes they’ll compete for SEC championships over the next 5 years.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Arkansas and Oklahoma and A&M, in other words regional opponents.

Funny you should mention Tech

https://theathletic.com/3438644/2022...wership/?amp=1

Texas and Oklahoma are trading games against Tech and TCU and Iowa State for at least 4x viewership vs Auburn and Georgia and Florida. That means more money for the conference.

Texas and Oklahoma left a solid conference where they were the premier football programs to join a conference where they might be the 5th place team with new head coaches to get access to these games for more money. Nobody believes they’ll compete for SEC championships over the next 5 years.

It is difficult to keep track of what point you are trying to make. Texas gets to stay in the same conference as OU and renew traditional rivalries with A&M and Arkansas. Of all of the realignment shuffles, this one made the most sense at every level.

People forget that Texas used to be in Southwest Conference with SMU, Rice, TCU, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Baylor, & Texas A&M. Nobody cares if they stop playing Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, etc.

[fusnik]

It is difficult to keep track of what point you are trying to make. Texas gets to stay in the same conference as OU and renew traditional rivalries with A&M and Arkansas. Of all of the realignment shuffles, this one made the most sense at every level.

People forget that Texas used to be in Southwest Conference with SMU, Rice, TCU, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Baylor, & Texas A&M. Nobody cares if they stop playing Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, etc.

Of course nobody cares if they stop playing Iowa State that’s my point! You are finally getting it!

The way this is trending is in 5-10 years, 2028 probs since 2030 is when certain Television contracts expire, the top 30-40 programs are going to band together and form a super league from most likely the top 75% programs from the B1G and SEC and top 50% programs from the ACC and P12. Theyll form regional conferences under the names SEC and B1G and extend from Washington to Miami. They’ll basically be NFL lite, will negotiate mega television/streaming contracts and pay their players annual salaries with bonuses, kickers, NIL sweeteners.

The jettisoned teams and the other mid majors will make up ‘division 1’ football and will continue on as normal until they reach their inevitable demise over the next 20-30 years.

[BlueK]

Of course nobody cares if they stop playing Iowa State that’s my point! You are finally getting it!

The way this is trending is in 5-10 years, 2028 probs since 2030 is when certain Television contracts expire, the top 30-40 programs are going to band together and form a super league from most likely the top 75% programs from the B1G and SEC and top 50% programs from the ACC and P12. Theyll form regional conferences under the names SEC and B1G and extend from Washington to Miami. They’ll basically be NFL lite, will negotiate mega television/streaming contracts and pay their players annual salaries with bonuses, kickers, NIL sweeteners.

The jettisoned teams and the other mid majors will make up ‘division 1’ football and will continue on as normal until they reach their inevitable demise over the next 20-30 years.

We understand what the model is. What most of us are saying is that the super division/NFL lite won't have the size of audience to support the mega media deals they think they will get. Whatever projections they have for the audience size is most likely assuming millions of viewers who are fans of the teams that will be left out and will not be there for them. Of course at the moment they don't realize those aren't really theirs because those fans are part of the current audience. If my team isn't in any way connected to the same overall college sports product then I have no reason to care about USC vs Michigan State or even Alabama vs Oklahoma, for that matter.

[Bo Diddley]

We understand what the model is. What most of us are saying is that the super division/NFL lite won't have the size of audience to support the mega media deals they think they will get. Whatever projections they have for the audience size is most likely assuming millions of viewers who are fans of the teams that will be left out and will not be there for them. Of course at the moment they don't realize those aren't really theirs because those fans are part of the current audience. If my team isn't in any way connected to the same overall college sports product then I have no reason to care about USC vs Michigan State or even Alabama vs Oklahoma, for that matter.

Don't paint with too broad a brush. There are many who watch from the enjoyment of watching a competitive game. There are some who will buy in and find new favorite teams to follow. There are some who will lose interest.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Don't paint with too broad a brush. There are many who watch from the enjoyment of watching a competitive game. There are some who will buy in and find new favorite teams to follow. There are some who will lose interest.

Don’t kid yourself. Look at a region like southern Arizona. If Arizona and ASU ended up with no football teams, you really think fans there will be passionate about Michigan or LSU or something? No way. Fan support would die.

[Bo Diddley]

Don’t kid yourself. Look at a region like southern Arizona. If Arizona and ASU ended up with no football teams, you really think fans there will be passionate about Michigan or LSU or something? No way. Fan support would die.

I'm simply saying not completely.

Do you remember some of those old polls about which team would you pick to follow if BYU gave up football? I guess the question is how many people watch football simply because their team has a stake in the big picture.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I'm simply saying not completely.

Do you remember some of those old polls about which team would you pick to follow if BYU gave up football? I guess the question is how many people watch football simply because their team has a stake in the big picture.

Having a local team in the mix at some level in college football has a big impact on overall interest in college football.

I have a friend who went to BYU, lives locally, and used to be a season ticket holder. He got busy with other things and stopped attending games. When I talk to him he has no clue about what is going on with college football in general.

Have you ever met a person who is an avid fan of college football with zero historical connection to either a local team or a school that person attended? I am not sure I have.

[Paperback Writer]

Arkansas and Oklahoma and A&M, in other words regional opponents.

Funny you should mention Tech

https://theathletic.com/3438644/2022...wership/?amp=1

Texas and Oklahoma are trading games against Tech and TCU and Iowa State for at least 4x viewership vs Auburn and Georgia and Florida. That means more money for the conference.

Texas and Oklahoma left a solid conference where they were the premier football programs to join a conference where they might be the 5th place team with new head coaches to get access to these games for more money. Nobody believes they’ll compete for SEC championships over the next 5 years.

During my lifetime (I am not young), I've known of only one 5-year period where Oklahoma has not competed for a conference championship. It happened to be when Nebraska was at its apex winning several national championships. I understand how competitive the SEC is. I also understand much of the history of Sooner football. OU not competing for a conference championship??? GTFO.

[Bo Diddley]

Having a local team in the mix at some level in college football has a big impact on overall interest in college football.

I have a friend who went to BYU, lives locally, and used to be a season ticket holder. He got busy with other things and stopped attending games. When I talk to him he has no clue about what is going on with college football in general.

Have you ever met a person who is an avid fan of college football with zero historical connection to either a local team or a school that person attended? I am not sure I have.

College football would lose much of the local support it enjoys if their football team went away, no question. What kind of support does the NFL enjoy in Utah? There is no local team. How do people decide which team will be theirs? MLB as well. College football would still draw fans.

[Jeff Lebowski]

College football would lose much of the local support it enjoys if their football team went away, no question. What kind of support does the NFL enjoy in Utah? There is no local team. How do people decide which team will be theirs? MLB as well. College football would still draw fans.

Nobody is claiming there would be ZERO fans. That's not the point.

[Omaha 680]

College football would lose much of the local support it enjoys if their football team went away, no question. What kind of support does the NFL enjoy in Utah? There is no local team. How do people decide which team will be theirs? MLB as well. College football would still draw fans.

You are proving our point. NFL and MLB have fans in Utah and Nebraska because sports fans will follow the sports they like at the highest level. But how many XFL or diehard Bees fans are there in Utah? If you exclude all but 40 schools and make that super league a de facto NFL minor league, it will not command the viewership, interest, or revenue the current leagues do collectively. Why watch Ohio State vs Michigan in the NFL D league when you can just watch the real thing the next day?

[Applejack]

You are proving our point. NFL and MLB have fans in Utah and Nebraska because sports fans will follow the sports they like at the highest level. But how many XFL or diehard Bees fans are there in Utah? If you exclude all but 40 schools and make that super league a de facto NFL minor league, it will not command the viewership, interest, or revenue the current leagues do collectively. Why watch Ohio State vs Michigan in the NFL D league when you can just watch the real thing the next day?

Some people watch college football because they don't want to break the Sabbath.

[fusnik]

You are proving our point. NFL and MLB have fans in Utah and Nebraska because sports fans will follow the sports they like at the highest level. But how many XFL or diehard Bees fans are there in Utah? If you exclude all but 40 schools and make that super league a de facto NFL minor league, it will not command the viewership, interest, or revenue the current leagues do collectively. Why watch Ohio State vs Michigan in the NFL D league when you can just watch the real thing the next day?

We need that incredible Wyoming v Colorado State game to ensure fan viewership, or that insane Arizona State v Oregon State matchup that drives millions thousands to the television screen!

The others won’t be anymore excluded than they are now. The way you have to look at this is simple, why would the SEC and B1G, in this new world where they can destroy conferences where the members have been together for 100 years, share with Rutgers the spoils of a playoff or NC? Americans are already trending away from NCAA football in terms of viewership, attendance and with HS kids playing less football than before participation.

Amateur football is heading towards its demise. The way it looks now is if you aren’t in the B1G or SEC your program probs has a shelf life of 15-20 years.