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Well I have thought a lot about this game and rewatched a few games from both teams. (I know I am a nerd). I looked at the stats, trends and history of the rivalry and have outlined below my keys to the game.
1. BYUs receivers against Utahs corners. Utah is notorious for playing man press on the outside and having confidence in their corners to shut down the opposing teams wide outs. Without a weapon on the outside like Collie I think this will be effective for Utah. Chambers, Ashworth and Jacobsen are ok but they are not elite yet. I think Jacobsen has the ability to get downfield at least once in this game but I do not see a ton of catches from BYUs outside receivers. Like I said our outside receivers got their asses kicked in this game, at times BYUs receivers couldnt even get off the line of scrimmage
2. BYUs backs and tight ends vs Utahs linebackers and safeties. This is where I think BYU has the largest advantage in the game. Tonga and Harvey are great receivers out of the backfield and tough to handle for linebackers. Pitta and George are maybe the best tight end tandem in college football. I expect Utah to mix in some zone in the middle of the field to disrupt BYUs timing with the tight ends as I do not think their LBs/S can cover Pitta or George one on one. However if the corners prove that they can cover BYUs receivers that will allow Utah to double Pitta/George. George did catch the game winner but Utah was able to confuse BYU and they had Rojo covering the flats (very smart) and went man to man against BYU on the outside which meant doubling the tightends, great game plan
3. BYUs Offensive Line vs Utahs D-line. Without Derrick Shelby, and Kenape Eliapo BYU will have a good advantage against the run and the pass. I think Harvey has another big day and we could see Robert Anae get in one of his grooves where he calls 7,8 even 9 straight runs. (BYU did a good job running the ball, I think Anae called a bad game and really didnt mix it up enough, he threw on first down and ran on 2nd and 10, then he would throw again on 3rd and 1. Utah had a nice pash rush as well.
4. BYUs soft zone coverage vs Jordan Wynn. Jordan Wynn is a true freshman but has shown some poise and promise in his limited starts. BYU is known to play very soft zone coverage and I can almost guarantee that is the gameplan for Utah. They are going to force Utah and Jordan Wynn to go on long drives and not make mistakes. Can Wynn lead his team on a 10 or 12 play drive without making any major mistakes to kill drives? Utah is also the most penalized team in the conference so these two factors could be huge. You do not want to put Wynn in to 3rd and long situations where he has to force things. In Wynns 3 1/2 games Utah has 3 drives over 10 plays, and one of those was a blocked fieldgoal, so 2 scoring drives over 10 plays. This shows that they have a quick strike offense and that Wynn may get inpatient and try to force some things. Biggest difference in this game was Wynn not taking what the defense was giving him, he had guys open on crossing routes all game and kept trying to go up top. Utah only had 1 td in the game and BYU did exactly what I said and tried to force long drives. Wynn did only have 1 turnover but Utah killed themselves with penalties and drops. Also Utah was 4-18 on third downs.
5. Eddie Wide vs BYUs rush defense. BYU has done a great job this year stopping the run. However they have not played a team that runs out of a spread formation like Utah does. I am interested to see how they handle this, with Wynn not being a threat to run the ends will have free reign to crash down on the weak side and pursue the play taking away cutback lanes for Wide. Look for Utah to mix in at least one reverse to try and catch BYU cheating. If Wide can get going this will take a lot of pressure off of Wynn and allow Utah to control the clock and sustain drives. Wide didnt do much until the 4th quarter (which is when Wynn stepped up, no coincidence there) he is a solid back and had a nice game, overall however Utah had 30 carries for 97 yards. BYUs run defense was solid
6. David Reed/Jereme Brooks vs BYUs secondary. The intersting thing about this matchup is that BYU does not play man to man coverage it is almost 100% zone. Which means that the crossing patterns that Reed and Brooks run so well and bust so many big plays off of, should not be as effective. However the downside to this is if they line up any of them in the slot and run them deep they will be matched up on a tight end or safety and that is a huge advantage for Utah. I am excited to see how Utah attacks BYUs defense as well as how BYU counters. Not sure what happened here they looked great early and then disappeared for the rest of the game, Reed was in the slot all game long and matched up on Pendelton but Wynn was not finding him
7. Special teams. The punting will play the biggest factor, but teams statistically have very good coverage units. Two big punt returns by both teams maybe the biggest factors in the game
With all this being said, I think BYU has the biggest advantages and my prediction is BYU 31 Utah 17. If BYU does not get off the field on third downs and gives up big plays I could see Utah pulling out a close game. My prediction was way off, but what a great game to watch. Two teams slugging it out, if this was the SEC people would be gushing about this game
1. BYUs receivers against Utahs corners. Utah is notorious for playing man press on the outside and having confidence in their corners to shut down the opposing teams wide outs. Without a weapon on the outside like Collie I think this will be effective for Utah. Chambers, Ashworth and Jacobsen are ok but they are not elite yet. I think Jacobsen has the ability to get downfield at least once in this game but I do not see a ton of catches from BYUs outside receivers. Like I said our outside receivers got their asses kicked in this game, at times BYUs receivers couldnt even get off the line of scrimmage
2. BYUs backs and tight ends vs Utahs linebackers and safeties. This is where I think BYU has the largest advantage in the game. Tonga and Harvey are great receivers out of the backfield and tough to handle for linebackers. Pitta and George are maybe the best tight end tandem in college football. I expect Utah to mix in some zone in the middle of the field to disrupt BYUs timing with the tight ends as I do not think their LBs/S can cover Pitta or George one on one. However if the corners prove that they can cover BYUs receivers that will allow Utah to double Pitta/George. George did catch the game winner but Utah was able to confuse BYU and they had Rojo covering the flats (very smart) and went man to man against BYU on the outside which meant doubling the tightends, great game plan
3. BYUs Offensive Line vs Utahs D-line. Without Derrick Shelby, and Kenape Eliapo BYU will have a good advantage against the run and the pass. I think Harvey has another big day and we could see Robert Anae get in one of his grooves where he calls 7,8 even 9 straight runs. (BYU did a good job running the ball, I think Anae called a bad game and really didnt mix it up enough, he threw on first down and ran on 2nd and 10, then he would throw again on 3rd and 1. Utah had a nice pash rush as well.
4. BYUs soft zone coverage vs Jordan Wynn. Jordan Wynn is a true freshman but has shown some poise and promise in his limited starts. BYU is known to play very soft zone coverage and I can almost guarantee that is the gameplan for Utah. They are going to force Utah and Jordan Wynn to go on long drives and not make mistakes. Can Wynn lead his team on a 10 or 12 play drive without making any major mistakes to kill drives? Utah is also the most penalized team in the conference so these two factors could be huge. You do not want to put Wynn in to 3rd and long situations where he has to force things. In Wynns 3 1/2 games Utah has 3 drives over 10 plays, and one of those was a blocked fieldgoal, so 2 scoring drives over 10 plays. This shows that they have a quick strike offense and that Wynn may get inpatient and try to force some things. Biggest difference in this game was Wynn not taking what the defense was giving him, he had guys open on crossing routes all game and kept trying to go up top. Utah only had 1 td in the game and BYU did exactly what I said and tried to force long drives. Wynn did only have 1 turnover but Utah killed themselves with penalties and drops. Also Utah was 4-18 on third downs.
5. Eddie Wide vs BYUs rush defense. BYU has done a great job this year stopping the run. However they have not played a team that runs out of a spread formation like Utah does. I am interested to see how they handle this, with Wynn not being a threat to run the ends will have free reign to crash down on the weak side and pursue the play taking away cutback lanes for Wide. Look for Utah to mix in at least one reverse to try and catch BYU cheating. If Wide can get going this will take a lot of pressure off of Wynn and allow Utah to control the clock and sustain drives. Wide didnt do much until the 4th quarter (which is when Wynn stepped up, no coincidence there) he is a solid back and had a nice game, overall however Utah had 30 carries for 97 yards. BYUs run defense was solid
6. David Reed/Jereme Brooks vs BYUs secondary. The intersting thing about this matchup is that BYU does not play man to man coverage it is almost 100% zone. Which means that the crossing patterns that Reed and Brooks run so well and bust so many big plays off of, should not be as effective. However the downside to this is if they line up any of them in the slot and run them deep they will be matched up on a tight end or safety and that is a huge advantage for Utah. I am excited to see how Utah attacks BYUs defense as well as how BYU counters. Not sure what happened here they looked great early and then disappeared for the rest of the game, Reed was in the slot all game long and matched up on Pendelton but Wynn was not finding him
7. Special teams. The punting will play the biggest factor, but teams statistically have very good coverage units. Two big punt returns by both teams maybe the biggest factors in the game
With all this being said, I think BYU has the biggest advantages and my prediction is BYU 31 Utah 17. If BYU does not get off the field on third downs and gives up big plays I could see Utah pulling out a close game. My prediction was way off, but what a great game to watch. Two teams slugging it out, if this was the SEC people would be gushing about this game
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