bowl projections

[Babs]

They are going to come and support their instate rivals vs. THE Ohio State University? Very big of them.

The game is in Eugene, yes?

[Jarid in Cedar]

BYUs a shoe-in for the Poinsettia Bowl this year. I sincerely doubt they'll get a 5th consecutive invite from the Vegas Bowl committee- in fact, I've heard several rumors that the Vegas Bowl wanted a break from the Y. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Great avatar.

[landpoke]

They We are going to come go and support their our instate rivals vs. THE Ohio State University?. Very big of them us.

You had a couple of typos in there. And yes, it is very big of you.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Even if OU beats Okie St., Cincy beats Pitt, and Georgia Tech beats Clemson, I still don't see Boise State going to a BCS bowl- unless the Fiesta chose Boise State over TCU. I think the Fiesta will pick Penn State and match them up with the best possible opponent- TCU as opposed to Boise State. If the unthinkable happened and the Fiesta picked Boise, then the Sugar would be "forced" to put TCU up against Alabama (I think that would make for a really good game though). But there's no way the Sugar will pick Boise State over Virginia Tech. Boise has to hope that Virginia somehow beats Virginia Tech.

If the above three results happen, here's how the bowls will probably pick:

National Championship: Florida vs. Texas
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Alabama (1st at large) vs. Virginia Tech (5th at large)
Fiesta: Penn State (2nd at large) vs. TCU (4th at large)
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati (3rd at large)

As usual, the only intriguing game outside of the national title game is the Rose Bowl. Penn State vs. TCU is mildly interesting due to conference affiliation. The Sugar would have a rematch and the Orange would be laughably uninteresting. I would prefer that the Fiesta just picked Boise State and the Sugar was forced to pick TCU. Boise State vs. Penn State would be mildly interesting but TCU vs. Alabama would be great.

[Coastal Ute]

I am pretty sure Oregon State will go to the Holiday. Even if they aren't the tie breaker for 2nd place they will go to the Emerald with the 4th pick. Sun has a no repeat clause. I don't see a scenario that pushes them to 5th.

It is shaping up for USC/Arizona to be a battle for Vegas.

USC won't pass up the Holiday Bowl, and the Holiday Bowl probably won't pass up USC.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

USC won't pass up the Holiday Bowl, and the Holiday Bowl probably won't pass up USC.

That is assuming that there is a 4 way tie for 2nd place, you are right. My understanding is that the Holiday Bowl has to take the second place team, not the second pick of remaining P10 teams.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

You had a couple of typos in there. And yes, it is very big of you.

You know I am sensitive about my weight, jerk.

[Hsaru]

Even if OU beats Okie St., Cincy beats Pitt, and Georgia Tech beats Clemson, I still don't see Boise State going to a BCS bowl- unless the Fiesta chose Boise State over TCU. I think the Fiesta will pick Penn State and match them up with the best possible opponent- TCU as opposed to Boise State. If the unthinkable happened and the Fiesta picked Boise, then the Sugar would be "forced" to put TCU up against Alabama (I think that would make for a really good game though). But there's no way the Sugar will pick Boise State over Virginia Tech. Boise has to hope that Virginia somehow beats Virginia Tech.

If the above three results happen, here's how the bowls will probably pick:

National Championship: Florida vs. Texas
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Alabama (1st at large) vs. Virginia Tech (5th at large)
Fiesta: Penn State (2nd at large) vs. TCU (4th at large)
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati (3rd at large)

As usual, the only intriguing game outside of the national title game is the Rose Bowl. Penn State vs. TCU is mildly interesting due to conference affiliation. The Sugar would have a rematch and the Orange would be laughably uninteresting. I would prefer that the Fiesta just picked Boise State and the Sugar was forced to pick TCU. Boise State vs. Penn State would be mildly interesting but TCU vs. Alabama would be great.

Alabama and VT already played this year....Sugar needs to find a way to get TCU Bama/Florida that is the only high profile game...VT as an at large is an ugly matchup.

[Mormon Red Death]

Even if OU beats Okie St., Cincy beats Pitt, and Georgia Tech beats Clemson, I still don't see Boise State going to a BCS bowl- unless the Fiesta chose Boise State over TCU. I think the Fiesta will pick Penn State and match them up with the best possible opponent- TCU as opposed to Boise State. If the unthinkable happened and the Fiesta picked Boise, then the Sugar would be "forced" to put TCU up against Alabama (I think that would make for a really good game though). But there's no way the Sugar will pick Boise State over Virginia Tech. Boise has to hope that Virginia somehow beats Virginia Tech.

If the above three results happen, here's how the bowls will probably pick:

National Championship: Florida vs. Texas
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Alabama (1st at large) vs. Virginia Tech (5th at large)
Fiesta: Penn State (2nd at large) vs. TCU (4th at large)
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati (3rd at large)

As usual, the only intriguing game outside of the national title game is the Rose Bowl. Penn State vs. TCU is mildly interesting due to conference affiliation. The Sugar would have a rematch and the Orange would be laughably uninteresting. I would prefer that the Fiesta just picked Boise State and the Sugar was forced to pick TCU. Boise State vs. Penn State would be mildly interesting but TCU vs. Alabama would be great.

Couple things in play here.
The order of picking for the sites goes with the bowl who loses their #1 team (in this case the SEC winner) so that would be the sugar bowl. The next to pick is The bowl that lost the #2 team. In this case it would be the fiesta. Next it goes:

January 2010 games: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar

Orange is not going to pick cincy because they don't travel (see last year). They probably dont want to TCU (small fanbase). They probably dont pick VA tech (two ACC teams) so what is left is OKST. As for TCU since they are guaranteed a bcs game due to being the highest ranked NON AQ. Boise St is not guananteed a bcs game as TCU took their slot. Just like Utah took their slot last year.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Couple things in play here.
The order of picking for the sites goes with the bowl who loses their #1 team (in this case the SEC winner) so that would be the sugar bowl. The next to pick is The bowl that lost the #2 team. In this case it would be the fiesta. Next it goes:

January 2010 games: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar

Orange is not going to pick cincy because they don't travel (see last year). They probably dont want to TCU (small fanbase). They probably dont pick VA tech (two ACC teams) so what is left is OKST. As for TCU since they are guaranteed a bcs game due to being the highest ranked NON AQ. Boise St is not guananteed a bcs game as TCU took their slot. Just like Utah took their slot last year.

In the first paragraph of my post, I mentioned the hypothetical of Okie St. losing. If Okie St loses, then they're not an at-large team (btw, I think there's a strong possibility that OU beats Okie St). I also don't know if Okie St. travels as well as you think. I think the Orange would try to pick the best team possible that would draw out the ACC champ's fans while still drawing some of that team's fans. You'd have to think that Cincy travels better than TCU. If Okie St. is out of the picture, the Fiesta is going to pick Penn State. That puts the choice between Cincy or TCU for the Orange Bowl and I still think the Orange picks Cincy.

My original post revolved around the fact that Boise DOESN'T have an automatic bid. Basically, for Boise to have any shot, there has to be an almost complete absence of at-large BCS conference teams. The only way that happens is if two conferences are overrepresented in the top 14 and the remainder of the BCS conferences lack a second at large team. The SEC and Big 12 will almost always have two teams, but this year could be the exception. The fly in the ointment for Boise is Virginia Tech who is, right now, ranked #14 in the BCS polls. The fact that a 3 loss V-Tech team could be picked over Boise is utterly ridiculous from the standpoint that Boise is both the better team and likely could travel better to the Fiesta or possibly even the Sugar than Virginia Tech. V-Tech is not Bama, Texas, Penn State or Ohio State.

But the more I think of it, the Fiesta really could pick Boise State instead of TCU if the Fiesta thinks that Boise would travel better than TCU or Virginia Tech (a logical conclusion). That would force TCU on the Sugar Bowl.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Alabama and VT already played this year....Sugar needs to find a way to get TCU Bama/Florida that is the only high profile game...VT as an at large is an ugly matchup.

Yes it is an ugly matchup, but the BCS bowls have unfortunately shown a tendency to produce crappy matchups. Last year's games were pretty good, but the year before was horrendous. I would be shocked if the Fiesta doesn't pick TCU (or Boise) and instead goes for the only at-large team left from a BCS conference (assuming Okie St. loses) that doesn't already have two teams in the mix: Virginia Tech.

IIRC, the WAC and MWC have an arrangement where they share BCS money. It would be nice to have two teams getting that money.

[Mormon Red Death]

In the first paragraph of my post, I mentioned the hypothetical of Okie St. losing. If Okie St loses, then they're not an at-large team (btw, I think there's a strong possibility that OU beats Okie St). I also don't know if Okie St. travels as well as you think. I think the Orange would try to pick the best team possible that would draw out the ACC champ's fans while still drawing some of that team's fans. You'd have to think that Cincy travels better than TCU. If Okie St. is out of the picture, the Fiesta is going to pick Penn State. That puts the choice between Cincy or TCU for the Orange Bowl and I still think the Orange picks Cincy.

My original post revolved around the fact that Boise DOESN'T have an automatic bid. Basically, for Boise to have any shot, there has to be an almost complete absence of at-large BCS conference teams. The only way that happens is if two conferences are overrepresented in the top 14 and the remainder of the BCS conferences lack a second at large team. The SEC and Big 12 will almost always have two teams, but this year could be the exception. The fly in the ointment for Boise is Virginia Tech who is, right now, ranked #14 in the BCS polls. The fact that a 3 loss V-Tech team could be picked over Boise is utterly ridiculous from the standpoint that Boise is both the better team and likely could travel better to the Fiesta or possibly even the Sugar than Virginia Tech. V-Tech is not Bama, Texas, Penn State or Ohio State.

But the more I think of it, the Fiesta really could pick Boise State instead of TCU if the Fiesta thinks that Boise would travel better than TCU or Virginia Tech (a logical conclusion). That would force TCU on the Sugar Bowl.

my bad..