MLB 2011 Post Season Thread

[MartyFunkhouser]

Agreed. I'd be curious to know what the run differential ranking of the last 10 teams to win the WS (but not curious enough to look it up on my own). If it's a metric that can't predict post-season success, then citing in a post-season thread isn't really that helpful.

It doesn't predict postseason success. No one has found any metric that predict post season success because it is such a small sample size. Baseball Between the Numbers has a fantastic chapter on this very subject. It is the Why Billy Beane's Shit Doesn't Work in the Playoffs Chapter.

The plain fact is that we have more than enough evidence to show that the playoffs are a crapshoot. There have been plenty of times when the worst team has won it and the best team has been knocked out in the first round. Yankees, Phillies, and Rangers and easily the 3 best teams, but that certainly doesn't mean they are going to win the World Series. There is a reason that I didn't predict the Yankees would win it and instead just ranked the teams.

[MartyFunkhouser]

As we have seen run differential does not mean shit. The Yankees do not have the pitching to beat the Phillies in a 7 game series. Congrats on being regular season champs though!

Ah the old pitching wins bullshit that has been debunked. Having a great pitching staff is just as likely to win you the thing as having great hitting.

[TheBYUGuy]

Ah the old pitching wins bullshit that has been debunked. Having a great pitching staff is just as likely to win you the thing as having great hitting.

The Astros had phenomenal pitching in 2005 (Clemens, Pettite, Oswalt in rotation with Lidge as the closer), but they were swept in the world series because they sucked so bad on offense.

[filsdepac]

Here's who I'd prefer win it, in order of most acceptable to least:

1. Rangers
2. Brewers
3. Rays
4. Tigers
5. Diamondbacks
6. Cardinals
7. Yankees
8. Phillies

If I had to pick a team to bet on, I'd pick the Phillies. I talked to a lot of Rangers fans in Spring Training, and they were all very gracious and mentioned how jealous they were of the Giants' celebration.

[MartyFunkhouser]

Here's who I'd prefer win it, in order of most acceptable to least:

1. Rangers
2. Brewers
3. Rays
4. Tigers
5. Diamondbacks
6. Cardinals
7. Yankees
8. Phillies

If I had to pick a team to bet on, I'd pick the Phillies. I talked to a lot of Rangers fans in Spring Training, and they were all very gracious and mentioned how jealous they were of the Giants' celebration.

My most acceptable to least:

1) Rays
2) Tigers
3) Rangers
4) Yankees
5) Brewers
6) Diamondbacks
7) Phillies
8) Cardinals

[Parrot Head]

Ah the old pitching wins bullshit that has been debunked. Having a great pitching staff is just as likely to win you the thing as having great hitting.

"True dat," say Bobby Cox and Leo Mazzone in unison.


I'm going with Rangers over the Phils in 6. I'd be happy with that outcome, though I'd also be pretty happy for Maddon and most of the Rays if they won, though I don't want to see the state of Florida with another ring for a team they don't give a crap about. Let them have their Stanley Cups and be done with it.

And, like CJF, I think the wrath of Philly will come down upon Charlie M. if that team can't pull it together. (I don't think he'll get fired, just that they'll hear it and he'll have some serious off-season discussions.)

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Brewers/Rays, Brewers' win and choose to spray each other with Milwaukee's Best rather than champagne. It'll be fantastic.

[BoylenOver]

My most acceptable to least:

1) Rays
2) Tigers
3) Rangers
4) Yankees
5) Brewers
6) Diamondbacks
7) Phillies
8) Cardinals

lol.

[il Padrino Ute]

Ah the old pitching wins bullshit that has been debunked. Having a great pitching staff is just as likely to win you the thing as having great hitting.

Yeah, that powerful Cleveland lineup sure took it to the Braves pitching staff, didn't it?

I'll agree that pitching doesn't always win, but I'd rather have great pitching than great hitting, as odds are with the pitching. Remember, hitting successfully 30% of the time is considered outstanding. Great pitching will limit that to 20-25% success.

[myboynoah]

OK, so I really haven't been paying attention, but the Tigers are in the post season?

What is this, the 60s?

[BoylenOver]

Lance Berkman! 3-0 Cards in the first.

[CardiacCoug]

Lance Berkman! 3-0 Cards in the first.

That was sweet -- Berkman hit that a mile. Nice way to make them pay for pitching around Pujols with first base open.

Great opportunity for the Cards in this game now.

[Northwestcoug]

If there were ever a team of destiny, this year's Rays are it. I think they match up well with the Yankees and pretty much every remaining NL team.

(I can't believe I'm saying this, after how they castrated the Sox.)

[BoylenOver]

I can't believe the Cards won despite Carpenter's bad outing and no Holliday. Oswalt and Hamels won't be a walk in the park, but they're not quite as good as Halladay and Lee.

[Joe Public]

Let's go, Tigers. Even series heading back to Detroit with Verlander on the mound next.