Another Baseball Question

[BlueHair]

Runners on first and third with no outs. Ground ball hit to shortstop. The defensive team almost always chooses to attempt the double play and concede the run. Why not hold the runner on third and make the play at first? I realize that would put two runners in scoring position, but it seems like the better play to me. Outs are easier than runs.

[Non Sequitur]

If the defensive team is in double play position then that presupposes that the infield is not in, which means it is probably early in the game. Early in the game you always concede the run. Late in the game you worry about the runner on third.

[Jarid in Cedar]

You concede the run early in trade for 2 outs. This is to avoid a big inning. Like you said, you could hold the runner and get to out at first but end up with 2 runners in scoring position. Now a single scores 2 and you still only have 1 out.

[wuapinmon]

There's a lot of room for error in that play. Let's say the guy at 3rd breaks for home when you throw to first. Do you try to get him out? What do you do if the guy on second goes for third when you throw home?

2 outs in the bag, before the 4th inning, is worth giving up one run. 2 on and 1 out with both runners in scoring position is not good. Sac Fly scores one, and the runner on 2nd advances to third. Now it's 1-0, 2 outs, and a runner on third.

[BlueHair]

There's a lot of room for error in that play. Let's say the guy at 3rd breaks for home when you throw to first. Do you try to get him out? What do you do if the guy on second goes for third when you throw home?

2 outs in the bag, before the 4th inning, is worth giving up one run. 2 on and 1 out with both runners in scoring position is not good. Sac Fly scores one, and the runner on 2nd advances to third. Now it's 1-0, 2 outs, and a runner on third.

You look at him before you throw it to first. Ideally, he does take off for home. You can get your double play that way. I think I agree with everyone about taking the outs early in the game, but one thing to consider is runs count the same whether they're scored in the first or ninth inning. If your team generally struggles to score, you should probably make stopping the run your top priority.

[CardiacCoug]

All the data would be out there to make this calculation.

With runners on second and third with one out, the average runs scored is about 1.3.

With bases empty and 2 outs, average runs scored is 0.15 (but you have already conceded a run) so it works out to 1.15.

So the percentage play over the course of a season would be to get the 2 outs and concede the run.

This article talks a little about it and validates it with old data: http://www.pankin.com/markov/intro.htm

[BlueHair]

All the data would be out there to make this calculation.

With runners on second and third with one out, the average runs scored is about 1.3.

With bases empty and 2 outs, average runs scored is 0.15 (but you have already conceded a run) so it works out to 1.15.

So the percentage play over the course of a season would be to get the 2 outs and concede the run.

This article talks a little about it and validates it with old data: http://www.pankin.com/markov/intro.htm

Thanks. Very interesting.

[Mormon Red Death]

To me it would depend on who was batting next. If its a deep ball hitter you go for 2 if its a non deep fly ball threat you get the one out (considering score and inning aside)

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[CardiacCoug]

Found this "run expectancy matrix." This one would make it 1.4 runs allowed for runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out and only 1.1 runs allowed if you concede the run and turn the double play.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/expected_runs_matrix2005.premium.php

[San Juan Sun]

Runners on first and third with no outs. Ground ball hit to shortstop. The defensive team almost always chooses to attempt the double play and concede the run. Why not hold the runner on third and make the play at first? I realize that would put two runners in scoring position, but it seems like the better play to me. Outs are easier than runs.

Score?
Inning?
Home or away?
Can your team actually pull off a double play?


The only way I don't concede the run is if it's a close game in the late innings. If you're going to contest the run, you need to have your infield in, which makes holding the runner on third/getting the hitter going to forst possible.

If you are playing your infield back, you may be able to hold the runner at third if it's hit sharply. If it's not, that guy is probably scoring. And even if you do hold the runner at third, you're going to have to make a nice throw to get the guy out at 1st.

Worst case scenario: runner at 3rd scores, with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. D'oh

[MartyFunkhouser]

Found this "run expectancy matrix." This one would make it 1.4 runs allowed for runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out and only 1.1 runs allowed if you concede the run and turn the double play.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...05.premium.php

This is what is great about baseball. The numbers is baseball tell you more about what to do than any other sport. All these decisions should be nothing more than playing the percentages every single time.

[Surfah]

This is what is great about baseball. The numbers is baseball tell you more about what to do than any other sport. All these decisions should be nothing more than playing the percentages every single time.

Some team should just have a computer manage them.

[Non Sequitur]

Some team should just have a computer manage them.

Or Indy.

[il Padrino Ute]

Runners on first and third with no outs. Ground ball hit to shortstop. The defensive team almost always chooses to attempt the double play and concede the run. Why not hold the runner on third and make the play at first? I realize that would put two runners in scoring position, but it seems like the better play to me. Outs are easier than runs.

As others have noted, if it's early in the game you trade a run for two outs. And if the ball was hit hard enough, the runner at third may not advance to home.

[MartyFunkhouser]

Some team should just have a computer manage them.

A computer would do a lot better job than a guy like Tony Larussa.