"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[MarkGrace]

Sorry. Had to go to church.

• Sweet-shooting 7-footer who can post up smaller defenders. Slow-footed.
• Rugged, physical post defender but can't jump or defend rim. Decent rebounder.
• Excels at grabbing missed free throws. Recovering from torn Achilles.

Okur played only 13 games after missing most of the season with a torn Achilles, and, well, looked like a guy who had just come back from not playing for a year. He shot only 35.5 percent and his rebounding numbers were way off from their norms.

He's 32 years old and has never been a conditioning zealot, so there are reasonable concerns about how much of his former ability he can retain. The glass-half-full side is that bigs who can shoot usually retain most of their faculties even when they lose a step. One suspects Okur can contribute considerably more than he did in his late trial run last season, and if so the Jazz will have a frontcourt as deep as any in basketball.

Memo

[MarkGrace]

• Athletic guard who lacks a position. Great leaper but takes off with two feet.
• Erratic handle for a point guard. Short for a 2 but can check bigger players.
• Poor outside shooter, but makes bad decisions on his drives. Fouls like crazy.

An athlete in search of a game, Price's brutal offensive display last season may have been a career-ending performance. His -2.48 pure point rating was unspeakably awful; it is virtually impossible to play the point for any length of time and post a mark this bad. He very nearly had both the worst assist rate AND the worst turnover rate among point guards, eventually settling for second- and fourth-worst, respectively.

Price also had the worst shooting percentage among point guards at a ghastly 35.2 percent, and the worst true shooting percentage too. Needless to say, his PER was the worst at the position and very nearly the worst in the league; only Atlanta's Jason Collins and the Nets' horrific Stephen Graham saved him from that distinction.

Defensively, Price had his moments. He pressures the ball, can guard bigger players and is very athletic. He had the third-best rate of steals among point guards, and a very strong defensive plus-minus for the second straight season. On the other hand, no guard fouls more often -- his rate of once every 6.8 minutes was the most of any perimeter player and 19th in the league overall.

Price

[MarkGrace]

• Hard-nosed point guard with size and strength to check 2s effectively.
• Strong defender but overaggressive; makes bad decisions on both ends.
• A poor outside shooter but lacks great point guard instincts. Rebounds well.

Watson's defensive plus-minus numbers have been outstanding nearly every year of his career, and they were again last season: Utah gave up 3.91 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court. What made it particularly impressive was that he spent a big chunk of his playing time defending shooting guards, and did so very effectively. Watson also redoubled his efforts on the boards, ranking seventh among point guards in rebound rate.

Offensively, alas, he's still a mess. Watson had a high assist rate at least, but compensated with the fifth-worst turnover rate among point guards. Meanwhile, he averaged an embarrassing 8.8 points per 40 minutes thanks to a ragged outside shot and a strange unwillingness to attack the rim. A third of Watson's shots were 3-pointers, which is an odd choice for such an erratic outside shooter.

As a result, he's a 10-minute point guard, but his skill set makes him particularly effective as backcourt partner with the 2-in-a-1's-body types that are proliferating all over the league -- Watson can distribute on offense and then defend the 2-guard on defense. That fact alone should keep him in a rotation for another season.

Watson

[MarkGrace]

• Feisty, physical defender who has lost a step or two from his prime.
• Spot-up, line-drive outside shooter off catch or after a single dribble to right.
• Lacks athleticism and can't create own shot. Poor rebounder.

I'm not sure why the Jazz settled on Bell as their solution at shooting guard last summer, and they're probably thinking the same thing right now. He was supposed to be a stopper and long-range weapon but struggled in both roles, with the most amazing stat being that he played 2,097 minutes without drawing a single basket-and-1. He took 44 shots at the rim all season.

Instead Bell spent his year shooting 20-foot line drives, and while his stroke was decent (41.2 percent on long 2s, 35.2 percent on 3s), it wasn't nearly enough to offset the total lack of easy points in the paint or the minuscule usage rate. Bell finished with the second-worst PER at his position; that he stayed on the court all season anyway speaks volumes to Gordon Hayward's struggles.

Defensively, Bell was just OK -- feisty and physical as always, but giving up too much athleticism on many nights to make a real impact. He's under contract for two more years, but he'll need to transition to a much lesser role if he isn't bought out entirely.

Roger

[MarkGrace]

• Athletic wing still figuring out how to translate skills to basketball court.
• Can jump and finish, but average shooter and ball handler.
• Offensive instincts need improvement, especially on pick-and-roll.

The defining play of Hayward's rookie season was an action I call the "pick-and-nothing." The Jazz would run a pick-and-roll for Hayward and he would neither turn the corner, nor shoot a jumper, nor hit the roll man. He'd just eat the ball and throw it back out. It's confounding because he clearly has some skills, but his offensive instincts need to round into shape before he can contribute consistently.

Yet Hayward did show flashes, with top-of-the-square shot blocks, a couple of dazzling dunks and above-average rebounding numbers. He also shot 47.3 percent on 3s, albeit in just 74 attempts, and he can handle the ball. Plus, at 6-8 he's about the biggest 2-guard in the league; one suspects he'll eventually land at the 3.

Defensively, Hayward was wayward. Utah gave up 5.17 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, opponents posted strong PERs against him at both wing positions, and Synergy Stats rated him among the league's worst defenders. His height and feet indicate he should eventually be pretty good in this area, but last season he sure wasn't.

Even with his struggles, his final stats on the season weren't that bad for a rookie guard, thanks to a strong final month. It's just a question of developing the aggression and instincts to take advantage of his skills.

Elder Hayward

[MarkGrace]

• Enormous center whose size makes him a major defensive presence.
• Hugely foul-prone and mistake-prone offensively. Horrid foul shooter.
• Professionalism needs improvement. Also struggles to finish around rim.

The best-kept secret in the NBA right now is Fesenko's monstrous defensive stats. It's not that one or two metrics point out his defensive value; it's that all of them do, without any pointing to the contrary.

Last season the Jazz were an eye-popping 11.91 points per 100 possessions better on defense with Fesenko on the floor, and this is not a new trend. The season before it was 8.67; in limited minutes his first two seasons he also had a strong differential.

Synergy Stats, meanwhile, rated Fesenko as the second-best defender in the entire league among players who faced at least 150 opponent plays; the season before he was first. And according to 82games.com, opposing centers had a PER of just 10.4 against him; the season before it was 12.9.

Despite his size, Fesenko doesn't block a ton of shots or dominate the boards. He just uglies up the game for opponents with his sheer hugeness, especially since he moves his feet fairly well for his size. And he can still get better -- he wasn't always fully engaged in Utah and needs to step up his commitment.

Now for the bad news. Fesenko has been fairly disastrous offensively. He tends to bring balls back into shot-blockers when finishing at the rim, he's a 39.8 percent career foul shooter, he's clumsy, and he has no shooting range or ball skills.

Additionally, his towering foul rate limits his impact -- Fesenko commits one every 4.94 minutes for his career, making it virtually impossible for him to play extended minutes. Nonetheless, he can be a very effective, low-cost backup center, and if he can make a few more plays offensively he'll have real value.

Fess

[MarkGrace]

• Rail-thin, pogo-leaping forward who excels on alley-oop plays.
• Appears to have bad hands and few other basketball skills.
• Mobility makes him defensive plus but lacks strength to guard post.

Jerry Sloan had a pretty good strategy for how to take advantage of Evans' skills: He would check into a game late in the third quarter, and almost immediately Sloan would call an alley-oop for him. Often that would be his only basket of the game.

A pogo stick in search of a game, not to mention a muscle or two, Evans is trying to build a niche as a bench energy guy. His 66.1 percent shooting mark stands out, but it's on only 115 attempts, so the jury remains out on whether he can be a rotation player. He rarely scored besides the dunks, fumbled passes, and had a very poor rebound rate for an alleged energizer. Additionally, he can't be used against post-up 4s because of his complete and total lack of muscle.

Evans

[MarkGrace]

• Lanky big man who can run floor. Mobile enough to check guards on switches.
• Lacks strength and rarely rebounds. Can be overpowered near rim.
• Has no half-court offensive skills. Rarely scores around rim. Mediocre 12-foot J.

Elson has value at the defensive end, where his mobility makes him a solid pick-and-roll defender and he has enough bulk to play some post defense. But his other contributions are so scant that the tradeoff is rarely worthwhile.

Elson had the fifth-worst PER among centers last season, primarily because he averaged only 8.8 points per 40 minutes. That it was his highest mark in three seasons underscores the trouble Elson has scoring. He's also a below-average rebounder who ranked among the bottom 10 centers in rebound rate, and he doesn't block shots either (55th out of 67 centers).

As a third center, one can live with these limitations, but that's about the extent of his value. He's had PERs of 6.77, 10.29, 5.48 and 8.98 the past four seasons; you can't win with that in the rotation.

Elson

[MarkGrace]

• Skilled big man with strong outside shot and great feel around basket.
• Not a great athlete and may struggle to help guards and defend 4s.
• Strong build and rugged. Will rebound and bang inside.

For all his skill, one of the big concerns about Kanter is that he's hardly played the past two years due to an ill-fated sojourn through the wilds of college basketball. He'd have been much better served just continuing to develop in Turkey.

Nonetheless, he shined in the 2010 Hoop Summit game and offers a rare combination of size, physicality and shooting ability. Despite concerns about his athleticism and defensive chops, he's almost certainly going to be a productive player -- at worst, it seems, he'll be an offensive big man in the mold of fellow Turk Mehmet Okur.

Kanter

[MarkGrace]

• Smooth, slashing scorer with excellent size for position. Can get to rim and score.
• Solid ball handler who may be able to play point in a pinch. Rebounds well.
• Outside shot a major question mark. May need to add muscle. Makes free throws.

Burks appears destined to have a long, solid career; though not an elite athlete, he has the prototype build for a 2-guard and his advanced ballhandling skills should be able to cover for some of his deficiencies as a shooter. Additionally, one must take encouragement from his 82.5 percent mark from the line last season -- he's not Ben Wallace, he's just had trouble producing a consistent stroke at game speed. At his age, the potential to get considerably better is certainly there, making him one of the few players drafted outside the top five whom one could imagine playing in an All-Star Game someday.

Burks

[UtahJazzFan88]

Thanks for all those profiles, was a good read.

and @ Raja playing 2,097 without ANY and 1's.

[MarkGrace]

Here's the 5-on-5 roundtable for the Jazz: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/...ason-questions

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Josh Howard's agent insisting that both SA and Utah made firm offers to him. DesNews reporting that Howard does have a meeting in SLC scheduled this week.

[UteStar]

I am trying to lay out how the team will look (AK not included) and lets say that Josh Howard does sign on, this is how I envision the lineup:

Point Guard: Harris and Watson
Shooting Guard: Howard, Bell and Burks
Small Forward: Miles and Hayward
Power Forward: Milsap, Favors and Evans
Center: Jefferson, Memo and Kanter

You still will have other guys possibly like Tinsley, Price, etc. I would love to see Burks get more minutes than Raja, but I just have a feeling that Raja will continue to get 15+ minutes a game. If the Jazz don't get Howard...then Burks could see his minutes move up. The 2 and 3 spots will have a lot of flexibility with Milsap maybe seeing a few minutes there...Howard will see minutes at both spots...Hayward as well.


One thing becomes crystal clear...we are overloaded at the Big positions and something will have to give. Whether its Milsap or Jefferson or Memo - one of those guys will be moved in the next 2 months.

I am excited about this season. Most excited about a season in years because I want to see how the young guys develop especially Hayward and Favors.

[smokymountainrain]

I am trying to lay out how the team will look (AK not included) and lets say that Josh Howard does sign on, this is how I envision the lineup:

Point Guard: Harris and Watson
Shooting Guard: Howard, Bell and Burks
Small Forward: Miles and Hayward
Power Forward: Milsap, Favors and Evans
Center: Jefferson, Memo and Kanter

You still will have other guys possibly like Tinsley, Price, etc. I would love to see Burks get more minutes than Raja, but I just have a feeling that Raja will continue to get 15+ minutes a game. If the Jazz don't get Howard...then Burks could see his minutes move up. The 2 and 3 spots will have a lot of flexibility with Milsap maybe seeing a few minutes there...Howard will see minutes at both spots...Hayward as well.


One thing becomes crystal clear...we are overloaded at the Big positions and something will have to give. Whether its Milsap or Jefferson or Memo - one of those guys will be moved in the next 2 months.

I am excited about this season. Most excited about a season in years because I want to see how the young guys develop especially Hayward and Favors.

Howard is much more a 3 than a 2. Also, the Jazz need to dump Miles.