"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[smokymountainrain]

Let's pretend AK plays this way (or close to it) for the remainder of this season and most of next season (minus the handful of games he'll sit out with a strained faux-hawk, of course).

What does he command on the market next offseason, and what should the Jazz offer to keep him?

If he keeps playing this way or even close to it? I think you could give him about 8-10 million over 2-3 years.

[MarkGrace]

One thing that I am encouraged/discouraged by was his offseason progress. AK has needed to improve his body, jumpshot, and handle since, oh, I don't know, his first year in the league. For the first time ever (ok, maybe not ever with the jumpshot -- two years ago he went through a really nice stretch where his mechanics look much improved; he proceeded to relapse the next year), he actually came into the season looking like he worked on all those things.

So I'm encouraged that he finally took that step, but discouraged that it took so long and who knows if it will happen again. The AK of old could get by on wiry athleticism and the sheer chaos of our offense that had little structure compared to now; but if he's going to keep playing at a decent level with the team, he needs to continue refining some actual skill as his athleticism wanes.

If he can do that, I see no reason why he couldn't be worth 6-8mm or so.

[Jacob]

I pretty much agree with all of that, but that's not exactly on with the pissing match.

My position: there is no evidence to suggest that AK gets a significant boost in minutes when Boozer is out; AK's big minutes correlates to his own strong play

SMR's position: as long as Booz is out AK will play big minutes; by virtue of him playing big minutes he's going to play well

The latter of each of our positions is completely unprovable (a chicken and egg scenario). With the former I think there's pretty solid evidence that it is not the case.

There is plenty of evidence to show that when Boozer is out AK gets a significant boost in minutes.

This year in games Boozer missed:
40, 37, and 36 minutes. In 8 games before that he got more than 27 twice.

Last year in games Boozer missed:30.2 compared to 26.9. (OK not that big)

As for your question as to how to account for AKs minutes at the beginning of the year, when Boozer was healthy, that's easy. SJ and KK were both out. Sloan was forced to play AK big minutes and to start him. So not, it's not just when Boozer's out, it's when there are injuries.

I've gone a step further. Here's Andrei's stats from last year Boozer out compared to Boozer in:
A 12% increase in minutes played gives you the following increases in production
7% increase in points
23% increase in rebounds
11% increase in TOs
33% increase in blocks
79% increase in steals

It looks like there may be something to getting to those extra 5-7 minutes per game, as last year was a pretty big sample. But maybe not.

[MarkGrace]

This year in games Boozer missed:
40, 37, and 36 minutes. In 8 games before that he got more than 27 twice.

This is rehash at this point. Just a page ago I noted that he played 12 games of 35 minutes or more and averaged 36 mpg over the first 14 -- this is all with Boozer. So without Booz he's played 37.6 mpg? I'm not seeing the big spike in minutes. You can point to at least three similar three game streaks early in the season (39, 43, 38 -- 38, 35, 37 -- 35, 41, 35), again, all with Boozer.

Last year in games Boozer missed:30.2 compared to 26.9. (OK not that big)

Again, a rehash. A couple of pages ago I mentioned that last year, with Boozer out, his jump in minutes was 3 or so at best. It was part of my basis for believing that just because Booz goes out doesn't mean AK is going to get a significant boost in minutes.

As for your question as to how to account for AKs minutes at the beginning of the year, when Boozer was healthy, that's easy. SJ and KK were both out. Sloan was forced to play AK big minutes and to start him. So not, it's not just when Boozer's out, it's when there are injuries.

Of course, that's my point. AK's minutes are not just related to Boozer.

[smokymountainrain]

Of course, that's my point. AK's minutes are not just related to Boozer.

FWIW, I'm pretty sure I made it clear that this wasn't about Boozer - that other players injuries allow him to get more time as well. This time it just happens to be Boozer.

Just throwing that out there.

[MarkGrace]

FWIW, I'm pretty sure I made it clear that this wasn't about Boozer - that other players injuries allow him to get more time as well. This time it just happens to be Boozer.

Just throwing that out there.

If that was made clear somewhere, I definitely missed it.

[MarkGrace]

Lost in all the discussion about Boozer vs. Millsap and what that means for AK, etc., is the fact that the Jazz were already playing this way. Without Booz they've won 3 straight, but they had just won 4 straight before he went down and they've taken 11 of their last 12 (only loss at Denver). They already looked like they started caring again; they already looked like they gave a damn again; they were already giving better effort; and AK was already partying like it was 2004.

So, prompted by some excellent observations by Rosen and Abbott, I started wondering how much of this nice run has been impacted by Deron's approach to the offense. But first, excerpts from those articles:

He's an all-star point guard, with a track record of scoring in the lane and from long-range. None of the Blazer defenders could stay with him. Last night was an opportunity for him to prove that he's playing the best of any NBA point guard right now.

But he didn't make it about him. Williams had a team working nicely on offense, and he alternated between letting the machine run on its own (look how many assists his teammates had) and nudging it along when it needed help, finishing with 13 assists. At times he retreated almost to half-court, without the ball, to keep his defender from mucking with his teammates' offense. He managed the clock smartly at the end of quarters. And when the Blazers snuck within ten in the closing minutes, he calmly got to his spots and hit shots that are easy for him -- a free-throw line jumper off a screen, a catch-and-shoot 3, and ... when Portland was hanging around within nine with a minute-and-a-half left, he burned up the shot clock down to six seconds before beating Jerryd Bayless (and a helping LaMarcus Aldridge) with the layup that ended things.

A lot of point guards can score. Several can get 13 assists. A few can be All-Stars. But it takes a very special one to know it's OK sometimes to fade into the background and let your teammates do their thing. And it's something of a trend. Before New Year's, this season, Williams was taking a shot every 2.58 minutes he played. In 2010, he's going 3.13 minutes between shots, and the team is rolling.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/12833/deron-williams-and-the-jazz-know-what-theyre-doing

After an atrocious first quarter in which he forced a total of five passes/shots, missed a layup and committed an offensive foul, Deron Williams finally got his legs under him and controlled the offense. He wound up playing excellent defense against Jason Kidd and J.J. Barea, hit his jumpers (7-for-15), and kept the ball moving (15 assists).

When the Jazz played too fast, they made mistakes. And when they played too slowly, their offense stagnated.

But Williams always seemed to ensure that the team maintained the most advantageous tempo — running under control, lots of quick-hitting ball- and player-movement and forever looking to find the open man. Plus, whenever the Jazz desperately needed a score, they ran a 1-2-2 or 1-4 spread set and let Williams pull, go, or drive-and-kick.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/Rosen-Jazz-analysis-013110

It seems that Deron is doing a better job running the offense by reigning in his own shots and moving the ball around more often and to more people. I think just about everyone has notice that Deron hasn't trusted AK with shots in the past, and I think too often he moves the ball to the guy that he thinks is most likely to get him an assist, instead of to the guy that is most open.

Jozef had some insightful comments a while back about the way Stock ran the offense. He said that as soon as a guy checked into the game, Stock would always try and get him some shots to get him into the offense. Additionally, Stock always made the right pass to the open guy, even if that meant Tag and he knew he was going to blow the shot. Why? Because the open guy is always the right pass regardless of outcome, and by setting a precedent of moving the ball to the right place, you are likely to get greater efficiency out of the offense over the long-run.

The Jazz have won 11 of their last 12, with Deron missing one of those games (the game at Sac). Over that 12 game streak, he has attempted just 10.5 shots per game, where for most of the season he was probably around 15 shots per outing. Instead, as Abbott mentions, he seems to be picking his spots better in terms of letting the offense run the best it can on its own, and then bailing it out when it doesn't produce a good shot. The result has been the Jazz averaging 110 ppg over the last 12, and scoring +100 in 11 of those 12 meetings. Over that time the Jazz have gained 5 spots in the league offensive efficiency rankings (as I recall they were 13 a handful of weeks back - right now 8), and averaging at least 50% from the floor (just did a quick glance, didn't add them up) during that stretch.

Stockton was a master at setting the offense up to run and then just intervening when he had to. Is Deron starting to make that same transition? In some ways I think he felt 20/10 was his ticket to the AS game, but lately he seems to be taking 10-12 shots and playing more for about 15-17 and 11-13 in the way that Stock used to.

Thoughts?

[MarkGrace]

Dallas goes down. Jazz are 3rd in the West.

[Coastal Ute]

I really, really don't understand this Jazz team. Up double digits on Denver. What???

[Maximus]

I really, really don't understand this Jazz team. Up double digits on Denver. What???

Denver is without billups and anthony.

[scottie]

Is Korver hurt? In Sloan's dog house?

[MarkGrace]

I'll take it!

[MarkGrace]

Is Korver hurt? In Sloan's dog house?

He's finally shooting the 3 ball like they've always wanted him to and now he can't get off the pine. Figures.

[MarkGrace]

Who's the least athletic player you've ever played with? Jarron Collins.

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[LiveCoug]

I am loving this streak. I really hope the Jazz can start winning at least semi consistently on the road, cause they gots a ton of road games the 2nd half of the season.