BYU Basketball Stats and Numbers Thread

[Pelado]

As I recall, the key to game the RPI is:
1. Never schedule a really crappy D1 school. I mean like one of the bad schools in the conferences you've never heard of. It's better to lose to a good team then beat one of those teams. Also, scheduling DII for that kind of thing is better because DII doesn't hit the RPI.
2. RPI is SOS heavy, but the SOS component of it is SOS light. Meaning you want a good SOS, but when you're scheduling teams it's better to schedule teams with great record and crappy SOS than teams with good record and strong SOS.

Sounds about right. The committee is aware that the RPI can be gamed. From what I understand, they don't pay that much attention to the RPI of any individual team. They use the RPI more to stratify - how did a team do against the RPI top 25, 26-50, 51-100, etc.?

The projections at rpiforecast.com have BYU with an expected RPI of 47.9 with the following records through the regular season:

vs. RPI top 25: 0-3
vs. 26-50: 2-1
vs. 51-100: 2-2
vs. 101-200: 7-3
vs. 201+: 8-0

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

Quality wins can get you past some bad losses. A win against Gonzaga would really help our at-large chances. Not sure we get in without winning the WCC tourney or beating the Zags.

[Blueintheface]

Sounds about right. The committee is aware that the RPI can be gamed. From what I understand, they don't pay that much attention to the RPI of any individual team. They use the RPI more to stratify - how did a team do against the RPI top 25, 26-50, 51-100, etc.?

The projections at rpiforecast.com have BYU with an expected RPI of 47.9 with the following records through the regular season:

vs. RPI top 25: 0-3
vs. 26-50: 2-1
vs. 51-100: 2-2
vs. 101-200: 7-3
vs. 201+: 8-0

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

Quality wins can get you past some bad losses. A win against Gonzaga would really help our at-large chances. Not sure we get in without winning the WCC tourney or beating the Zags.

We not only got in but were seeded higher than anyone expected last year with a similar record. I think BYU is safely in the "basketball school" camp.

That lasts until September when Napper's son of the 208 learns to stay in the pocket and throws for 4,000 yards. double

[Pelado]

We not only got in but were seeded higher than anyone expected last year with a similar record. I think BYU is safely in the "basketball school" camp.

That lasts until September when Napper's son of the 208 learns to stay in the pocket and throws for 4,000 yards. double

But we also notched a win against Gonzaga last year.

[Blueintheface]

But we also notched a win against Gonzaga last year.

Which we will do again. Triple

(You can't quadruple a triple pimp)

[BlueK]

We not only got in but were seeded higher than anyone expected last year with a similar record. I think BYU is safely in the "basketball school" camp.

That lasts until September when Napper's son of the 208 learns to stay in the pocket and throws for 4,000 yards. double

We also had an insanely difficult non-conference schedule last year and had at least a few really good wins against Texas, Stanford and Gonzaga. The committee has been very consistent about rewarding teams that take risks in their non-conference schedule. By selecting BYU and giving them a 10 seed they wanted to drive home that point.

[BlueK]

Sounds about right. The committee is aware that the RPI can be gamed. From what I understand, they don't pay that much attention to the RPI of any individual team. They use the RPI more to stratify - how did a team do against the RPI top 25, 26-50, 51-100, etc.?

The projections at rpiforecast.com have BYU with an expected RPI of 47.9 with the following records through the regular season:

vs. RPI top 25: 0-3
vs. 26-50: 2-1
vs. 51-100: 2-2
vs. 101-200: 7-3
vs. 201+: 8-0

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

Quality wins can get you past some bad losses. A win against Gonzaga would really help our at-large chances. Not sure we get in without winning the WCC tourney or beating the Zags.

I agree. This is how the committee deals with the fact that the rpi can be gamed.

[BlueK]

Another thing to keep in mind about BYU's rpi this year is it can still move quite a bit depending on what happens the rest of the way. Rpiforecast.com uses the Sagarin "predictor" rating to project teams' future rpis. It tells you what a team's expected rpi is at the end of the regular season by overall record. Right now it shows that the most likely scenario is that BYU wins 2 of their last 3. Obviously Gonzaga would be expected as the loss. If that happens it projects BYU's rpi moves up to #43. That's pretty solid territory, but obviously no guarantee of a tournament bid.

Also, a cool feature on that site is the rpi wizard where you can select outcomes of future games, including conference tournaments. When I ran it just now I put in BYU beating USD and Portland and losing to Gonzaga. Then I had wins over Portland and St. Mary's in the conference tournament. Running the wizard after that showed BYU's rpi moving up to #34 going into the WCC championship game. Then I did the same thing again but ran it with BYU losing to the Zags in the championship and it held at #34. The way BYU is playing now, this scenario is fairly realistic. The interesting thing though is it only really adds one decent win (vs. SMC) to the resume. BYU could still be left out of the dance, but it would be very close, IMO. Teams as high on the rpi as #34 very rarely get left out. Another thing to consider here is that for this to happen would mean BYU winning 4 of its last 6. Compared to what other bubble teams are going to do this would be a pretty strong finish compared to the others. I think BYU sneaks in if this happens.

[Pelado]

Quality wins can get you past some bad losses. A win against Gonzaga would really help our at-large chances. Not sure we get in without winning the WCC tourney or beating the Zags.

As if on cue:

If it wasn’t already obvious from how our committee treated Oklahoma, good wins carried more weight than bad losses, which is a line of thought that some real committee members said they share. As one of the actual committee members put it: “I care more about who you can beat than who can beat you.”

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ncaa-basketball-power-rankings-march-madness-tournament-selection-sunday-kentucky-wildcats-wisconsin-badgers-duke-blue-devils-villanova-wildcats-virginia-cavaliers-gonzaga-bulldogs-dick-vitale-arizona/

[Pelado]

Sounds about right. The committee is aware that the RPI can be gamed. From what I understand, they don't pay that much attention to the RPI of any individual team. They use the RPI more to stratify - how did a team do against the RPI top 25, 26-50, 51-100, etc.?

The projections at rpiforecast.com have BYU with an expected RPI of 47.9 with the following records through the regular season:

vs. RPI top 25: 0-3
vs. 26-50: 2-1
vs. 51-100: 2-2
vs. 101-200: 7-3
vs. 201+: 8-0

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

Quality wins can get you past some bad losses. A win against Gonzaga would really help our at-large chances. Not sure we get in without winning the WCC tourney or beating the Zags.

Updated after yesterday's game against San Diego:

BYU expected RPI - 45.4

Projected records through the regular season:

vs. RPI top 25: 0-4
vs. 26-50: 2-1
vs. 51-100: 2-1
vs. 101-200: 8-3
vs. 201+: 8-0

69% chance of winning at Portland
15% chance of winning at Gonzaga
(based on Sagarin's Predictor ratings)

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

[BlueK]

Kyle Collinsworth if he plays as we all expect this year is going to make a serious mark on the BYU career record book. He only has to average 6 rebounds per game (career per game avg: 7.2) and play in 30 games to become BYU's all-time leading rebounder. That's crazy. He also has a good chance to finish #1 in assists. He probably won't get there for steals because of how Jackson Emery shattered that record, but he has a great chance to finish #2. If he just stays healthy and plays as expected this year he will finish his career in the top 3 in rebounding, assists, and steals, and will deserve to be considered one of BYU's best ever.

http://byucougars.com/files/2015-16-mbball-records.pdf

[imanihonjin]

Kyle Collinsworth if he plays as we all expect this year is going to make a serious mark on the BYU career record book. He only has to average 6 rebounds per game (career per game avg: 7.2) and play in 30 games to become BYU's all-time leading rebounder. That's crazy. He also has a good chance to finish #1 in assists. He probably won't get there for steals because of how Jackson Emery shattered that record, but he has a great chance to finish #2. If he just stays healthy and plays as expected this year he will finish his career in the top 3 in rebounding, assists, and steals, and will deserve to be considered one of BYU's best ever.

http://byucougars.com/files/2015-16-mbball-records.pdf

Yeah, but does he do all this with or without the Russian mullet?

[BlueK]

So just one game into the season, BYU has already moved ahead of Utah on the Sagarin ratings. BYU started at #35 and moved up to #31 after the UVU game. I believe Utah was at #13 and dropped all the way down to #39. That was obviously not a good game for the utes against SUU. Using Sagarin predictor, the Utah/SDSU game should be considered a tossup. BYU should be favored by about 9 against LBSU.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm