BYU Basketball Stats and Numbers Thread

[BlueK]

Many of you may be familiar with Ken Pomeroy, who has emerged in recent years as perhaps college basketball's most influential stat geek. I don't subscribe to his site, and am not an expert in his system, but I know the main idea is that he looks at offensive and defensive efficiency by breaking it down to points per possession. When all is said and done, his overall team rankings usually end up looking similar to Sagarin (and often even the rpi, for that matter), but he just gets there a different way. Currently he has BYU ranked #26 (Sagarin #33, rpi #33).

But what is more interesting to me is how he ranks offenses and defenses. He looks at it by how many points a team scores per 100 possessions and how many they give up, adjusted by SOS and the tempo the team plays at. I'm not sure how much the SOS adjustment changes it, but it doesn't look to me like it's a major factor. Tempo I think factors more into it, but I'm not sure by how much. Right now BYU is #8 nationally on offense with 115.5 points per 100 possessions and #133 on defense, giving up 98.7 points per 100 possessions. You can also see how teams ranked each season. When comparing to last year, BYU is currently 3 points better on offense (112) and even 3 points better on defense (101) than they were at the end of last year. So far that isn't translating into a better national ranking on defense, but I'm assuming because our SOS so far is pretty close to the top of country, our ranking relative to other teams will increase as we start playing WCC teams, while those who have been playing mostly cupcake teams start in on their major conference schedules. Last year, teams that gave up around 98 points per 100 possessions ended up ranked in the 50s in defense. So I think by the end of the year at least statistically it's going to look like BYU has gotten significantly better on both sides of the ball.

http://kenpom.com/

[Crockett]

Many of you may be familiar with Ken Pomeroy, who has emerged in recent years as perhaps college basketball's most influential stat geek. I don't subscribe to his site, and am not an expert in his system, but I know the main idea is that he looks at offensive and defensive efficiency by breaking it down to points per possession. When all is said and done, his overall team rankings usually end up looking similar to Sagarin (and often even the rpi, for that matter), but he just gets there a different way. Currently he has BYU ranked #26 (Sagarin #33, rpi #33).

But what is more interesting to me is how he ranks offenses and defenses. He looks at it by how many points a team scores per 100 possessions and how many they give up, adjusted by SOS and the tempo the team plays at. I'm not sure how much the SOS adjustment changes it, but it doesn't look to me like it's a major factor. Tempo I think factors more into it, but I'm not sure by how much. Right now BYU is #8 nationally on offense with 115.5 points per 100 possessions and #133 on defense, giving up 98.7 points per 100 possessions. You can also see how teams ranked each season. When comparing to last year, BYU is currently 3 points better on offense (112) and even 3 points better on defense (101) than they were at the end of last year. So far that isn't translating into a better national ranking on defense, but I'm assuming because our SOS so far is pretty close to the top of country, our ranking relative to other teams will increase as we start playing WCC teams, while those who have been playing mostly cupcake teams start in on their major conference schedules. Last year, teams that gave up around 98 points per 100 possessions ended up ranked in the 50s in defense. So I think by the end of the year at least statistically it's going to look like BYU has gotten significantly better on both sides of the ball.

http://kenpom.com/

How is tempo calculated / factored? # of possessions per game?

[BlueK]

yes, tempo = number of possessions/game. You can also see how teams rank in tempo on that link. BYU is way up there as expected.

[BlueK]

As of today here is how BYU ranks.
Kenpom: 32
ESPN BPI: 31
Sagarin: 37
RPI: 58

[jay santos]

As of today here is how BYU ranks.
Kenpom: 32
ESPN BPI: 31
Sagarin: 37
RPI: 58

Interesting. I wonder why our RPI is getting killed so bad. I used to be the type to answer that question myself. Oh how the mighty have fallen...

[smokymountainrain]

Interesting. I wonder why our RPI is getting killed so bad. I used to be the type to answer that question myself. Oh how the mighty have fallen...

[Flystripper]

San Diego more than the others

[BlueK]

Interesting. I wonder why our RPI is getting killed so bad. I used to be the type to answer that question myself. Oh how the mighty have fallen...

It's not really that hard to figure it out. The rpi is primarly (67% of the formula) a way to rank teams on their SOS and we play most of our games in the WCC, and most WCC teams are ranked below 150 on the rpi. So there you go. Take a look at BYU's rpi profile on CBS. At the top of the page it shows that BYU is ranked #58 when looking at their entire D1 schedule. However, we're #30 when looking at non-conference games only, which actually puts us right in line with what the more accurate rankings systems think.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/BYU/brigham-young-cougars

[smokymountainrain]

San Diego more than the others

I don't know, two losses to Pepperdine, including at home, might be as bad as one loss on the road to San Diego. In conference play, Pepperdine is just one game ahead of San Diego.

[jay santos]

It's not really that hard to figure it out. The rpi is primarly (67% of the formula) a way to rank teams on their SOS and we play most of our games in the WCC and most WCC teams are ranked below 150 on the rpi. So there you go. Take a look at BYU's rpi profile on CBS. At the top of the page it shows that BYU is ranked #58 when looking at their entire D1 schedule. However, we're #30 when looking at non-conference games only, which actually puts us right in line with what the more accurate rankings systems think.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...-young-cougars

I don't have the time or interest right now to get into the analysis, but it's a bit more complicated than that. #58 and #31 is a wide discrepancy. I doubt you would find many teams with a wider discrepancy, and I doubt BYU has the softest SOS of all the top 50 teams. What I'm saying is, yes I agree RPI is an "SOS-heavy" computer system, but not "that" much. There's something else going on.

[BlueK]

the thing about those three losses is that they wouldn't be damaging if the rpi didn't hold the WCC in low regard. Now, you can argue that the rpi holds most of the league in low regard because the WCC is a crappy league. However, it's also interesting that the rpi basically ranks almost all the teams in the WCC lower than Sagarin, Kenpom and the BPI do, which is intesting, which leads me to believe the more important reason the rpi ranks WCC teams lower is simply because most WCC teams schedule very poorly with BYU and Gonzaga as basically the only exceptions.

[smokymountainrain]

the thing about those three losses is that they wouldn't be damaging if the rpi didn't hold the WCC in low regard. Now, you can argue that the rpi holds most of the league in low regard because the WCC is a crappy league. However, it's also interesting that the rpi basically ranks almost all the teams in the WCC lower than Sagarin, Kenpom and the BPI do, which is intesting, which leads me to believe the more important reason the rpi ranks WCC teams lower is simply because most WCC teams schedule very poorly with BYU and Gonzaga as basically the only exceptions.

Four losses to those three teams, FTR.

[BlueK]

I don't have the time or interest right now to get into the analysis, but it's a bit more complicated than that. #58 and #31 is a wide discrepancy. I doubt you would find many teams with a wider discrepancy, and I doubt BYU has the softest SOS of all the top 50 teams. What I'm saying is, yes I agree RPI is an "SOS-heavy" computer system, but not "that" much. There's something else going on.

There is more going on, but it's not what's happening in the RPI. The rpi is extremely simplistic and transparent. We know what is happening there, and it's BYU's winning percentage factored at a third of the formula and SOS as two-thirds, along with a very simple adjustment for home vs. road. That's it. The discrepancy is actually caused by what's happening in the more sophisticated formulas which all place BYU in the 30s. The real question to ask is why do the more sophisticated systems that look at not just SOS but also things like MOV and offensive and defensive efficiency (and injuries in the BPI) think BYU is a better team than the rpi does.

The thing is, every team knows what the criteria are that the committee uses, so no excuses if BYU doesn't get in regardless of what kenpom or the BPI says. You have to take care of business against teams like Pepperdine and San Diego. The tough thing is those are probably better teams than what the rpi thinks. Pepperdine came two points from beating Gonzaga at home and gave them a very tough game in Spokane. They'd be ranked a lot higher if they scheduled better outside the WCC. Still, you have to win games like those.

[Pelado]

I don't have the time or interest right now to get into the analysis, but it's a bit more complicated than that. #58 and #31 is a wide discrepancy. I doubt you would find many teams with a wider discrepancy, and I doubt BYU has the softest SOS of all the top 50 teams. What I'm saying is, yes I agree RPI is an "SOS-heavy" computer system, but not "that" much. There's something else going on.

I saw something from Indy Coug the other day that BYU was amoung the most "unlucky" teams. In other words, they have a lot of close losses - overtime, double overtime, etc. Sagarin and kenpom take margin of victory into account (whether directly or indirectly) while RPI pretty much only cares about who won or lost and where the game was played.

[jay santos]

There is more going on, but it's not what's happening in the RPI. The rpi is extremely simplistic and transparent. We know what is happening there, and it's BYU's winning percentage factored at a third of the formula and SOS as two-thirds, along with a very simple adjustment for home vs. road. That's it. The discrepancy is actually caused by what's happening in the more sophisticated formulas which all place BYU in the 30s. The real question to ask is why do the more sophisticated systems that look at not just SOS but also things like MOV and offensive and defensive efficiency (and injuries in the BPI) think BYU is a better team than the rpi does.

The thing is, every team knows what the criteria are that the committee uses, so no excuses if BYU doesn't get in regardless of what kenpom or the BPI says. You have to take care of business against teams like Pepperdine and San Diego. The tough thing is those are probably better teams than what the rpi thinks. Pepperdine came two points from beating Gonzaga at home and gave them a very tough game in Spokane. They'd be ranked a lot higher if they scheduled better outside the WCC. Still, you have to win games like those.

As I recall, the key to game the RPI is:
1. Never schedule a really crappy D1 school. I mean like one of the bad schools in the conferences you've never heard of. It's better to lose to a good team then beat one of those teams. Also, scheduling DII for that kind of thing is better because DII doesn't hit the RPI.
2. RPI is SOS heavy, but the SOS component of it is SOS light. Meaning you want a good SOS, but when you're scheduling teams it's better to schedule teams with great record and crappy SOS than teams with good record and strong SOS.