Odds to win tourney

[jay santos]

Based on the Santos model

TEAM Probability
North Carolina 0.1194576245348
Pittsburgh 0.1156079081551
Louisville 0.0981590460544
Connecticut 0.0898845000186
Memphis 0.0857333387838
Duke 0.0791180608977
Michigan St. 0.0684998294838
Oklahoma 0.0455628816900
Missouri 0.0296137628922
Kansas 0.0274590021521
Syracuse 0.0216465245152
Gonzaga 0.0204378160754
Wake Forest 0.0179838493626
West Virginia 0.0174918685616
Villanova 0.0166036736938
UCLA 0.0155596025445
Washington 0.0146719539917
Purdue 0.0123902306438
Arizona St. 0.0108257867309
Xavier 0.0100036953629
Utah 0.0097933114792
Clemson 0.0067156343841
Brigham Young 0.0066277312120
Illinois 0.0065734515005
Marquette 0.0054824407152
Florida St. 0.0044546604359
Ohio St. 0.0038064331294
Southern California 0.0032039677142
Butler 0.0030709943704
California 0.0025218001414
Oklahoma St. 0.0022947498934
Texas 0.0020691721642
Wisconsin 0.0014404596911
Utah St. 0.0014365963414
Tennessee 0.0013062919800
Minnesota 0.0011783590121
Arizona 0.0009467882719
Siena 0.0008863130862
Texas A&M 0.0007737054642
Temple 0.0006756857860
Michigan 0.0006544634288
Maryland 0.0005634311348
Boston College 0.0005631952245
Louisiana St. 0.0005450886760
Dayton 0.0004484255080
Cleveland St. 0.0003774167253
Mississippi St. 0.0001696832883
Virginia Commonwealth 0.0001346840993
North Dakota St. 0.0001343671945
Northern Iowa 0.0001274092712
Western Kentucky 0.0000556798015
Stephen F. Austin 0.0000169119160
Akron 0.0000068832825
Portland St. 0.0000060163902
American 0.0000030938816
East Tennessee St. 0.0000020583835
Cal St. Northridge 0.0000014328472
Cornell 0.0000013930825
Robert Morris 0.0000007999733
Morgan St. 0.0000005685826
Binghamton 0.0000004722732
Radford 0.0000002463230
Alabama St. 0.0000000655539
Chattanooga 0.0000000009720

[cougjunkie]

I dont know how your model translates but in Vegas BYU is 120-1, Utah is 150-1 and Utah state is 275-1.

[jay santos]

I dont know how your model translates but in Vegas BYU is 120-1, Utah is 150-1 and Utah state is 275-1.

divide 1/the probability to translate

BYU = 151:1

Utah = 102:1

Utah State = 696:1

Vegas usually curbs things off to make you pay a lot more for long shots.

[jay santos]

This is translated into the 5:1, etc format

North Carolina 8
Pittsburgh 9
Louisville 10
Connecticut 11
Memphis 12
Duke 13
Michigan St. 15
Oklahoma 22
Missouri 34
Kansas 36
Syracuse 46
Gonzaga 49
Wake Forest 56
West Virginia 57
Villanova 60
UCLA 64
Washington 68
Purdue 81
Arizona St. 92
Xavier 100
Utah 102
Clemson 149
Brigham Young 151
Illinois 152
Marquette 182
Florida St. 224
Ohio St. 263
Southern California 312
Butler 326
California 397
Oklahoma St. 436
Texas 483
Wisconsin 694
Utah St. 696
Tennessee 766
Minnesota 849
Arizona 1,056
Siena 1,128
Texas A&M 1,292
Temple 1,480
Michigan 1,528
Maryland 1,775
Boston College 1,776
Louisiana St. 1,835
Dayton 2,230
Cleveland St. 2,650
Mississippi St. 5,893
Virginia Commonwealth 7,425
North Dakota St. 7,442
Northern Iowa 7,849
Western Kentucky 17,960
Stephen F. Austin 59,130
Akron 145,280
Portland St. 166,213
American 323,219
East Tennessee St. 485,818
Cal St. Northridge 697,911
Cornell 717,833
Robert Morris 1,250,042
Morgan St. 1,758,760
Binghamton 2,117,418
Radford 4,059,710
Alabama St. 15,254,629
Chattanooga 1,028,786,425

[TheAzzuri]

This is translated into the 5:1, etc format

North Carolina 8
Pittsburgh 9
Louisville 10
Connecticut 11
Memphis 12
Duke 13
Michigan St. 15
Oklahoma 22
Missouri 34
Kansas 36
Syracuse 46
Gonzaga 49
Wake Forest 56
West Virginia 57
Villanova 60
UCLA 64
Washington 68
Purdue 81
Arizona St. 92
Xavier 100
Utah 102
Clemson 149
Brigham Young 151
Illinois 152
Marquette 182
Florida St. 224
Ohio St. 263
Southern California 312
Butler 326
California 397
Oklahoma St. 436
Texas 483
Wisconsin 694
Utah St. 696
Tennessee 766
Minnesota 849
Arizona 1,056
Siena 1,128
Texas A&M 1,292
Temple 1,480
Michigan 1,528
Maryland 1,775
Boston College 1,776
Louisiana St. 1,835
Dayton 2,230
Cleveland St. 2,650
Mississippi St. 5,893
Virginia Commonwealth 7,425
North Dakota St. 7,442
Northern Iowa 7,849
Western Kentucky 17,960
Stephen F. Austin 59,130
Akron 145,280
Portland St. 166,213
American 323,219
East Tennessee St. 485,818
Cal St. Northridge 697,911
Cornell 717,833
Robert Morris 1,250,042
Morgan St. 1,758,760
Binghamton 2,117,418
Radford 4,059,710
Alabama St. 15,254,629
Chattanooga 1,028,786,425

Am I reading this right? Chattanooga is 1 in a billion?

[cougjunkie]

Am I reading this right? Chattanooga is 1 in a billion?

I would like to put $1 dollar on Chatanooga please.

[TheAzzuri]

I would like to put $1 dollar on Chatanooga please.

Hell, put 10.

[FN Phat]

Based on this formula...the toughest region is the South. Poor Syracuse.

[Indy Coug]

I would like to put $1 dollar on Chatanooga please.

Go, you Mighty Mocs!

[wuapinmon]

Are these stats correct?

Most NCAA Tournament Appearances Without Reaching the Final Four, All-Time:

BYU -- 23
Missouri -- 21
Alabama -- 19
Xavier -- 19

[FN Phat]

Are these stats correct?

Most NCAA Tournament Appearances Without Reaching the Final Four, All-Time:

BYU -- 23
Missouri -- 21
Alabama -- 19
Xavier -- 19

Perennial underachievers.

[Indy Coug]

Perennial underachievers.

How many times has BYU been ranked in the top 10 nationally and failed to get into the Final Four?

[UteStar]

How many times has BYU been ranked in the top 10 nationally and failed to get into the Final Four?

I think that is a fair point...BYU has been good enough to get in the dance but just never good enough to do much in the dance. Not really underachievers, but never really overachieving either.

[SeattleUte]

I dont know how your model translates but in Vegas BYU is 120-1, Utah is 150-1 and Utah state is 275-1.

Because Utah has by far the tougher opening round opponent.

(There you go again; it's like a gravitational pull with you.)

[beelzebabette]

Because Utah has by far the tougher opening round opponent.

I've done a poor job of following all the tournament threads 'cause, you know, I know little about basketball so I apologize if you already addressed this.

Are you saying the selection committee does a poor job of seeding? Do you consider the 5th seed an overestimate of Utah's ability?