BYU - Florida (2011)

[Viking]

[Viking]

OK, I've been through the numbers and the game plan should be the exact same as the Gonzaga plan except DO MORE OF IT.

Gonzaga was, to me, scarier because they are a very high % FG shooting team and their guys shoot FTs very well. Their guard play is weak and we certainly exploited that...

Florida and Gonzaga would be a very good head to head match up with I think Florida winning on guard play.

What makes Florida "easier" is that their big guys can't hit the FTs.

Like Gonzaga, their are no real standouts. The style of play is similar: play half court offense and get the ball low.


Starters:
Walker - not a great shooter. He had a very unusually good game against UCLA and was the difference.
Parsons - can be scary if he gets hot and takes shots. Can't shoot FTs.
Tyus - mediocre stats.
Boynton - poor FGs, ok 3s good FTs
Macklin - typical low post numbers.

If Walker or Parsons + Macklin go off, this is a tough game for us.

We are going to have to run these guys off the court and Jimmer needs his 30+ and we need solid supporting cast roles. Run and gun. Shoot, shoot shoot.

Play aggressively in the low post and don't be afraid to send their big men to the line.

I think our team believes that they can overcome even Davies' loss, which the numbers show. That might be the most important factor of all.

BYU by 1.5

[SeattleUte]

BYU by 1.5

FYI the opening spread is FL -2.5.

[jay santos]

FYI the opening spread is FL -2.5.

That equates to about 40% chance for BYU victory. I'll take it. The rule of tourney prediction is take senior guards in a close game. BYU's got just about the best set of senior guards the tournament has ever seen.

And if we win, we'll be favored in the next game to make the Final 4.

SU, you might want to take the rest of the month off.

[SeattleUte]

That equates to about 40% chance for BYU victory. I'll take it. The rule of tourney prediction is take senior guards in a close game. BYU's got just about the best set of senior guards the tournament has ever seen.

And if we win, we'll be favored in the next game to make the Final 4.

SU, you might want to take the rest of the month off.

Florida's guards haven't shot well, so BYU can pack the zone in. But the FL guards are athletic and play defense (though there is one big size disadvantage). I think Florida needs to make this a somewhat ugly half court affair like the UCLA game.

[Viking]

The team ran the new dave rice offense to perfection last night.

Gonzaga is a better overall defensive team than Florida, particularly on the boards.

If we play 80% as well as we did last night, we win by 4.

I think it's a hard fought, tough game but we pull it out.

We have the best player in the country and his supporting cast is starting to believe. I think the entire team ex-Jimmer believed in the media more than in themselves. I think secretly most BYU fans felt that the naysayers here were right but they didn't know the numbers and the numbers gave us a nice advantage.

They do so again...BYU has higher odds of victory than Florida in this game and I think if we play consistently, even if we have a small let down, we win.

The key will be getting to the line. They are a mediocre to poor FT shooting team.

We need to be able to risk foul trouble with our bigs to get their bigs to the line and then get Jimmer to the line.

The zags again are a better defensive team than Florida and I think that if they put size on Jimmer, and if we get +1 from someone else, it's going to put a lot of pressure on Florida to play more aggressively and get our guys to the line more often.

I can't wait for this game.

[TripletDaddy]

KILL FLORIDA!!!!

DIE FLORIDA!!!!

[pelagius]

That equates to about 40% chance for BYU victory. I'll take it. The rule of tourney prediction is take senior guards in a close game. BYU's got just about the best set of senior guards the tournament has ever seen.

Your estimate is pretty close. Opening Money line is +125/-145 so implied prob of BYU is winning is, 41-45%.

[SeattleUte]

That equates to about 40% chance for BYU victory. I'll take it. The rule of tourney prediction is take senior guards in a close game. BYU's got just about the best set of senior guards the tournament has ever seen.

And if we win, we'll be favored in the next game to make the Final 4.

SU, you might want to take the rest of the month off.

The bracket gods have really smiled on BYU this time. This is your great opportunity to make the Final Four if you ever will. (Rick never had it so easy.) Don't fuck it up, BYU!

[jay santos]

Your estimate is pretty close. Opening Money line is +125/-145 so implied prob of BYU is winning is, 41-45%.

In my models I use to do my Santos rankings, I have a historical table where I correlated power rating point differential to winning probability, and that's what my table says.

[TripletDaddy]

The bracket gods have really smiled on BYU this time. This is your great opportunity to make the Final Four if you ever will. (Rick never had it so easy.) Don't fuck it up, BYU!

What happened to Pitt and west virginia yesterday?

[SeattleUte]

What happened to Pitt and west virginia yesterday?

Whatever happened to coaches yelling "Don't foul!" at times like that?

[cougjunkie]

If you leave on Wednesday and come home Monday flights to NO via Southwest are only $187.

[old_gregg]

If you leave on Wednesday and come home Monday flights to NO via Southwest are only $187.

really? i can't find anything on southwest.com for anything less than $500 roundtrip per person. is that flying in to msy?

[TripletDaddy]

If you leave on Wednesday and come home Monday flights to NO via Southwest are only $187.

Add 5 hotel nights and food to that and you are pretty much at break even. Plus the hassle of missing 3 days of work.