BYU Basketball 24-25-Bring out the Jelly!

[Pelado]

Sack up. We are in a new era of BYU sports where we can stop cowering about karma. We are fans and are allowed get excited. I have no concern that my message board musings will have any effect on Kevin Young's ability to keep the team grounded and focused on VCU only.

Agreed.

That being said, if BYU plays poorly and loses against VCU, I'm blaming you.

[falafel]

There is no such thing as Karma. Relax.

Oh, okay, so trillions or Hindus are just WRONG??

[beefytee]

Ok, how about this? Hatch's take that BYU has a better chance against Wisconsin than VCU is silly.

BYU has a good chance against Wisconsin, but they are unlikely to be favored. BYU is favored over VCU.

[falafel]

Ok, how about this? Hatch's take that BYU has a better chance against Wisconsin than VCU is silly.

BYU has a good chance against Wisconsin, but they are unlikely to be favored. BYU is favored over VCU.

I think a lo of this analysis is based on the specific matchup. VCU is good at preventing a lot of the things we like to do. But I agree that BYU should win this game and should have a pretty good chance against Wisc.

[Omaha 680]

Agreed.

That being said, if BYU plays poorly and loses against VCU, I'm blaming you.

I'm prepared for this but do not think I will have to go through it.

Ok, how about this? Hatch's take that BYU has a better chance against Wisconsin than VCU is silly.

BYU has a good chance against Wisconsin, but they are unlikely to be favored. BYU is favored over VCU.

I don't know if BYU has a better chance against Wisconsin than VCU. But this is what I think:

• VCU is an above average first round opponent BYU could have faced this year
• Wisconsin is a below average potential second round opponent BYU could face this year
• Alabama is a below average potential Sweet 16 opponent BYU could face this year
• Duke is very good and about what you would expect in an Elite 8 opponent

When I say BYU has a path to the elite 8 I'm not saying it's easy. I'm saying it sets up to be easier than the road that most other teams seeded below the 4 line have after the first round.

[bluegoose]

Oh, okay, so trillions or Hindus are just WRONG??

Yeah, and next thing they're going to tell me is that my purple Kansas State cycling socks are NOT, in fact, a good luck charm for the BYU cougars, even though they are UNDEFEATED when I've worn them on game day this season.

(FYI, I will be wearing my LUCKY socks on Thursday)

[SteelBlue]

If we can't beat the VCU's of the world, something is wrong. Let's go.

This. The hand wringing from BYU fans on socials is wild. Sack up, Cougar fans. We just watched the team beat ISU in Ames and beat them again on a neutral. You think VCU can rebound with this BYU team? You think they can play tougher D than ISU? You're worried they're Houston? This game will be close in the first half but BYU wins it going away by dominating the boards. BYU by 10+.

[Shaka]

This. The hand wringing from BYU fans on socials is wild. Sack up, Cougar fans. We just watched the team beat ISU in Ames and beat them again on a neutral. You think VCU can rebound with this BYU team? You think they can play tougher D than ISU? You're worried they're Houston? This game will be close in the first half but BYU wins it going away by dominating the boards. BYU by 10+.

The handwringing is because we tend to crap the bed in the tournament. If we didn't have that tendency then no one would give VCU a chance. PTSD is real.

[BlueK]

The handwringing is because we tend to crap the bed in the tournament. If we didn't have that tendency then no one would give VCU a chance. PTSD is real.

Even in 2011 we were considered ripe for a first round upset to Wofford, for whatever reason and that's what so many of the experts had. And if not that, then for sure Gonzaga would get us. Didn't happen. People see patterns because our human brains are wired to do that. But it doesn't mean there is always a true thing there. This team isn't last year's and is better equipped to beat a team like VCU than last year's was.

[falafel]

The handwringing is because we tend to crap the bed in the tournament. If we didn't have that tendency then no one would give VCU a chance. PTSD is real.

But we also tend to not beat top 10 (or 15) perennial powerhouses on the road and then again in the conference tournament held 3 hours away from that team's campus.

IOW, this ain't Steve Cleveland's BYU!

[byufan4ever]

BYU hasn't won a tournament game in 15 years. Let's change that! Also, can we please make it to a Final Four in my lifetime.

[beefytee]

For the record, I'm thrilled about BYU's situation! Can they go far? For sure! Can they crap out in the first game? It's a possibility. That's why we play the game! I'm here for the ride either way.

Let's go!

[Pelado]

BYU men's basketball current ratings:

NET: 26 (before accounting for tournament victory over Iowa State)
KenPom: 23
ESPN BPI: 24
BPI Resume: 17
Faktor KPI: 32
AP: 17
Coaches: 18

Record against Quad 1: 8-6
Quad 2: 5-2
Quad 3: 5-0
Quad 4: 6-0

Games remaining against Quad 1: 1
Quad 2: 0
Quad 3: 0
Quad 4: 0

ESPN's BPI predictor model gives BYU just a 19.4% chance to win in the semifinals against Houston (NET: 3, KenPom: 3) tomorrow, predicting a margin of 8.9 points. It's currently ranked 2nd of the day's games in "Matchup Quality" only trailing Marquette - Saint John's.

For the tournament projections, BPI currently shows BYU with the following chances:
Round of 32: 74.7%
Sweet 16: 35.5%
Elite 8: 12.4%
Final 4: 4.6%
Title game: 1.5%
Champion: 0.4%

They are listed as the 23rd highest odds of winning the tournament. Big 12 teams with better odds:
Houston - 19.2%
Texas Tech - 3.1%
Iowa State - 3.1%
Arizona - 2.0%
Kansas - 1.3%

Baylor is listed just after BYU with odds of 0.4%.

BYU men's basketball current ratings:

NET: 25
KenPom: 24
ESPN BPI: 24
BPI Resume: 19
Faktor KPI: 30
AP: 17
Coaches: 18

Record against Quad 1: 8-7
Quad 2: 6-2
Quad 3: 4-0
Quad 4: 6-0

BYU's record against teams in the field of 68: 5-5

Wins: 30 Baylor, 20 Kansas, 12 Arizona, 9 Iowa State x2

Losses: 28 Ole Miss, 3 Houston x2, 7 Texas Tech, 12 Arizona,

ESPN's BPI predictor model gives BYU a 57.3% chance to win in their NCAA Tournament game against VCU (NET: 31, KenPom: 30) on Thursday, predicting a margin of 1.8 points. It's currently ranked 2nd of the day's games in "Matchup Quality" only trailing Creighton-Louisville.

For the tournament projections, BPI currently shows BYU with the following chances:
Round of 32: 57.3%
Sweet 16: 21.1%
Elite 8: 8.2%
Final 4: 2.0%
Title game: 0.6%
Champion: 0.2%

They are listed as the 23rd highest odds of winning the tournament. Big 12 teams with better odds:
Houston - 20.1%
Iowa State - 3.7%
Texas Tech - 3.4%
Arizona - 2.1%
Kansas - 0.8%

Baylor is listed just after BYU with odds of 0.2%

And here's some info on VCU:

NET: 31
KenPom: 30
ESPN BPI: 34
BPI Resume: 46
Faktor KPI: 33
AP: NA
Coaches: NA

Record against Quad 1: 2-1
Quad 2: 6-4
Quad 3: 6-0
Quad 4: 13-1 (lost vs 211 Seton Hall)

Against teams that are in the field of 68, VCU went 1-1 (back-to-back games against Mountain West teams in mid-December).

Win: 47 Colorado State

Loss: 42 New Mexico

[Omaha 680]

Wow. Both 50% against the tournament field but we played 5x the number of games. Average ranking of our 10 games = 13.3. Average ranking of their 2 games = 44.5. I feel very good about being prepared to play VCU and hopefully beyond.

[Joe Public]

Is anyone else feeling like time has moved more slowly since Selection Sunday? Let the madness begin!