2020 General Presidential Election Thread

[dabrockster]

2020 General Presidential Election Thread

The market and the economy have been out of sync this year, so caution moving forward is reasonable. However, tying the market to the president always leaves me scratching my head.

Which is why I stated the GOP holding the senate is helpful. It wasn’t about just Biden in office now. When the Dems held all 3, one cannot say it did not have a major impact on stocks by what took place during that time.

Moliere: see above. People keep insinuating it is about Biden. That was not my statement and those who make that assumption are fuckwads looking to be as they are.


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[Now who’s the dean?]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/03/...ck-market.html

[Bo Diddley]

Which is why I stated the GOP holding the senate is helpful. It wasn’t about just Biden in office now. When the Dems held all 3, one cannot say it did not have a major impact on stocks by what took place during that time.

Moliere: see above. People keep insinuating it is about Biden. That was not my statement and those who make that assumption are fuckwads looking to be as they are.


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I guess what I'm saying is I've never bought in to the president having that much of an impact on the economy.

[old_gregg]

Which is why I stated the GOP holding the senate is helpful. It wasn’t about just Biden in office now. When the Dems held all 3, one cannot say it did not have a major impact on stocks by what took place during that time.

Moliere: see above. People keep insinuating it is about Biden. That was not my statement and those who make that assumption are fuckwads looking to be as they are.


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are you dumb? obama's first term with a dnc controlled government sees stock market growth that outpaces trump's first term, with a gop controlled government, by 50%. what is unclear about this to you?

[Applejack]

I am bracing for my retirement funds to tank the next 4 years.

No matter how much you hate on Trump, the past 4 years has caused my 401K to nearly triple in comparison to the past 8 years under Obama.

I expect the market will be cautious of what Biden will do, but having a GOP controlled senate will help ease that concern. At least I hope..


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Oh no! Hopefully you pulled all of your money out in the past two days before the markets realized Biden was going to win. Fingers crossed!

[Jarid in Cedar]

I guess what I'm saying is I've never bought in to the president having that much of an impact on the economy.

This is the correct answer. The markets want stability above all else.

[fusnik]

Which is why I stated the GOP holding the senate is helpful. It wasn’t about just Biden in office now. When the Dems held all 3, one cannot say it did not have a major impact on stocks by what took place during that time.

Moliere: see above. People keep insinuating it is about Biden. That was not my statement and those who make that assumption are fuckwads looking to be as they are.


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Again not to belabor any point, but market performance the first two years of Obama with a fully D house/senate was I think in the ~35/40% range.

You aren’t being rational.

[Moliere]

Wtf does this even mean?

Market performance under Obama vs Trump first four years is a win for Obama.

There’s a huge financial illiteracy with most people in regards to the market and performance.

If your balance tripled in 4 years under Trump vs 8 years under Obama it means you either contributed a lot more, weren’t invested in the market during the Obama years, or are Warren Buffett.

It’s not because Trumps market is better than Obama’s.

I don’t think you said anything different than me and I never said the market equals performance. I was agreeing that the market did better under Obama than trump. But I also think one time macro events should be considered in any comparison. Gdp grew by 33.1% in q3 this year, should we take that information without the fact that it dropped off a cliff earlier in the year?

[old_gregg]

I don’t think you said anything different than me and I never said the market equals performance. I was agreeing that the market did better under Obama than trump. But I also think one time macro events should be considered in any comparison. Gdp grew by 33.1% in q3 this year, should we take that information without the fact that it dropped off a cliff earlier in the year?

it's tough to compare macro events where a person is in control on both sides of the timeline vs. where someone steps in on the back side of a macro event

[fusnik]

I don’t think you said anything different than me and I never said the market equals performance. I was agreeing that the market did better under Obama than trump. But I also think one time macro events should be considered in any comparison. Gdp grew by 33.1% in q3 this year, should we take that information without the fact that it dropped off a cliff earlier in the year?

He was talking 401k performance.

Of course the ‘market’ is only a piece of economic health. Since Orange Jesus more people than 4 years ago seem to think that the Dow is the key indicator of economic prosperity. In a sense he isn’t wrong, an average person with a modest portfolio and living in a middle class neighborhood, their balance in their 401k is an immediate indicator on their family’s economic well being and might be their only tangible data point.

[Flystripper]

So in a day and a half Nevada managed to count about 8k more votes?


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[fusnik]

So in a day and a half Nevada managed to count about 8k more votes?


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https://mobile.twitter.com/LasVegasLocally/status/1324091510564904961

[Paperback Writer]

Timing of big events plays a lot into this (housing bubble bursting, Covid, tarp, etc) but as JL said, markets do just as fine or better under Dems than they do under the gop. Biden is an old school democrat when it comes to the economy. The more predictable the bettter and getting out of the crazy tariff/trade war crap and the stupid tweets will help a lot.

Wtf does this even mean?

Market performance under Obama vs Trump first four years is a win for Obama.

There’s a huge financial illiteracy with most people in regards to the market and performance.

If your balance tripled in 4 years under Trump vs 8 years under Obama it means you either contributed a lot more, weren’t invested in the market during the Obama years, or are Warren Buffett.

It’s not because Trumps market is better than Obama’s.

There's some truth to both. Compounding interest/market gains would show dabrockster's 401K balance rose close to as much in his first 8 years as his did in the next 4 years simply because he had a lot more money in the market after investment gains and additional contributions during the initial 8 year period. However, Obama took office after a market crash in response to the financial crisis so the market was going to be on an accelerated upward trajectory to reclaim those losses when investors panic and sold causing the crash.

[fusnik]

There's some truth to both. Compounding interest/market gains would show dabrockster's 401K balance rose close to as much in his first 8 years as his did in the next 4 years simply because he had a lot more money in the market after investment gains and additional contributions during the initial 8 year period. However, Obama took office after a market crash in response to the financial crisis so the market was going to be on an accelerated upward trajectory to reclaim those losses when investors panic and sold causing the crash.

I can’t.

[falafel]

Trump's lead in Georgia is down to 14k votes. Nuts.