Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski
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LOL. 538 reported that Hillary had over a 88% chance around this same time: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/"If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
"I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
"Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM! -
Twitter ->
Evidence that the mac became property of the repair shop after it was left for over 90 days: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkVFtItX...pg&name=medium
Joe should just drop out now and let Bernie be the Dem's candidate."If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
"I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
"Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!Comment
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OMG... Was Hunter Biden into child porn?!?
It's unclear whether the FBI employs more than one agent named Joshua Wilson. But the available evidence seems to show the Joshua Wilson who signed the subpoena for Hunter Biden's laptop and the Joshua Wilson who investigates child pornography for the FBI are the same person. This raises the possibility, not explored by the Post, that the FBI issued the subpoena for reasons unrelated to Hunter Biden's role in Ukraine and Burisma.
Maybe the apple doesn't fall far from the tree...
"If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
"I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
"Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!Comment
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Rasmussen LOL. No Breitbart poll to hang your hat on, there?Originally posted by Uncle Ted View Post"I'm anti, can't no government handle a commando / Your man don't want it, Trump's a bitch! I'll make his whole brand go under,"Comment
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JL, you forgot to put up a specific person in the straw poll: Hunter Biden. Ted is working overtime to make sure we know about his scandals. Let's see how many of us think he's fit for office!"...you pointy-headed autopsy nerd. Do you think it's possible for you to post without using words like "hilarious," "absurd," "canard," and "truther"? Your bare assertions do not make it so. Maybe your reasoning is too stunted and your vocabulary is too limited to go without these epithets."
"You are an intemperate, unscientific poster who makes light of very serious matters.”
- SeattleUteComment
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From the photos that Ted posted earlier, Hunter looks to be in a lot better shape than Trump, so he's more fit for office than the current guy.Originally posted by Northwestcoug View Post"I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
- Goatnapper'96Comment
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The NBC/WSJ poll has Biden up 11% nationally. For context, that’s the same lead Clinton had over Trump in the same poll in mid Oct 2016. However, that poll was a bit of an outlier in 2016 where it’s right in the mix of all polls in 2020. I’ve got a feeling Trump is going to get destroyed in three weeks
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk"Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. UchtdorfComment
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As of today 19 days before the election, in the RCP average of recent polls, Biden's lead over Trump is by 9.2 points. At 19 days before the election in 2016 Clinton led Trump by 6 points. She was on the downward trend by then and her lead really started to collapse starting about 10 days before the election with James Comey's surprise announcement. The day before election day she was only up by 1.4 points. Everyone seems to remember only that she was way ahead a month before election day but not that her numbers fell drastically after that probably because it's more fun to blame polls for being wrong I guess than saying that there was a very late shift to Trump. But so far in 2020 Trump's October surprises to try to replicate that kind of shift are falling flat so far. There is still time, but I can't see what could suddenly happen that would move things enough at this point, and with Trump seemingly not being able to avoid shoveling a deeper hole for himself. Also, Clinton's support never got above 50% like Biden's has. There were more undecideds to shift to Trump late than there are this time.Originally posted by Moliere View PostThe NBC/WSJ poll has Biden up 11% nationally. For context, that’s the same lead Clinton had over Trump in the same poll in mid Oct 2016. However, that poll was a bit of an outlier in 2016 where it’s right in the mix of all polls in 2020. I’ve got a feeling Trump is going to get destroyed in three weeks
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...-2020-vs-2016/Last edited by BlueK; 10-15-2020, 09:51 AM.Comment
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I think that most of the final 2016 polls were within the margin of error, so it's not like they were "wrong." Nonetheless, I hope the pollsters have used the 2016 experience to fine tune their models and sampling methodologies so that this year's versions have greater accuracy/precision.Originally posted by BlueK View PostComment
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plus, it's hard to pin down what people are talking about when they say "the polls." Do they mean the national polls or state polls where it mattered? Clinton did win the popular vote by 2 points which was well within the MOE of the final national polls. The state polls are harder to judge because there was not anywhere near the level of scrutiny and polling going on in the states that ended up deciding it (PA, MI, WI) in 2016 that there is now. But yes, good point about trying to come up with the best model in terms of predicting turnout. I think a poll can be pretty accurate about what the electorate thinks, but less so about who is actually going to get up to vote that opinion at the polling place (or send it in the mail).Originally posted by PaloAltoCougar View PostLast edited by BlueK; 10-15-2020, 10:03 AM.Comment
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We've had a little movement this week in the RCP averages in some of the states, so here is an update. The most interesting one I think is N. Carolina seemingly following a trend toward Biden over the last month or so. That movement there seems to be real and not just normal fluctuation. Trump really can't afford to lose there.
States Trump won in 2016:
(20) Pennsylvania (Biden by5.7 6.5 7.37.0)
(10) Wisconsin (Biden by5.56.3)
(16) Michigan (Biden by5.2 6.2 7.07.2)
(18) Ohio (Biden by3.3 1.20.6)
(11) Arizona (Biden by2.8 3.4 2.73.5)
(29) Florida (Biden by 1.1 3.52.7)
(15) N. Carolina (Biden by.5 1.4 1.93.3)
(6) Iowa (Biden by.51.2)
States Trump won last time where he holds a slim lead:
(16) Georgia (Trump by 1.1 Biden by .3 Trump by 0.4Biden by .4)
(38) Texas (Trump by3.34.4)
Here is where Trump comes closest right now in states Clinton won narrowly in 2016:
(6) Nevada (Biden by5.4 6.05.2)
(4) New Hampshire (Biden by8.6 9.011.0)
(10) Minnesota (Biden by9.4 9.06.6)
(9) Colorado (Biden by 10)
(13) Virginia (Biden by1111.4)
(5) New Mexico (Biden by 14.5)
(4) Maine (Biden by12.811.0)Last edited by BlueK; 10-15-2020, 10:37 AM.Comment
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Still trying to figure out Ohio."There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
"It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
"Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creeksterComment
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I blame Trump's bestest fan.... YOOriginally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post"The first thing I learned upon becoming a head coach after fifteen years as an assistant was the enormous difference between making a suggestion and making a decision."
"They talk about the economy this year. Hey, my hairline is in recession, my waistline is in inflation. Altogether, I'm in a depression."
"I like to bike. I could beat Lance Armstrong, only because he couldn't pass me if he was behind me."
-Rick MajerusComment
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"There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
"It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
"Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creeksterComment
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I've said it before: Trump's goose is cooked. Biden has the Great Lakes on lock and he just needs ONE other swing state to get to 270. Could be Pennsylvania, could be Arizona, could be NC, could be Ohio.... as of now looks like the only thing Trump will get is Ohio. And if Biden gets Florida, which it looks like he will, the landslide is in effect and the national mandate to Trump to please f yourself will be official."I'm anti, can't no government handle a commando / Your man don't want it, Trump's a bitch! I'll make his whole brand go under,"Comment
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