Utah Governor Spencer Cox

[YOhio]

Not easy for me to believe but I’m sure in any Republican primary in any state being associated with Trump helps more than it hurts.

If Huntsman wins he will probably owe that to Hughes and the sleezy Cox = Never Trump ads.

You're probably right. My first thought was that Huntsman is Putin approved, but I'm pretty biased.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Not easy for me to believe but I’m sure in any Republican primary in any state being associated with Trump helps more than it hurts.

If Huntsman wins he will probably owe that to Hughes and the sleezy Cox = Never Trump ads.

Agreed. It is crazy how Hughes has gone 100% after Cox and said nothing about Huntsman.

[UVACoug]

Would not be surprised to find out someday that Hughes and Huntsman made some kind of deal here. Both are sleazy as hell, as far as I'm concerned. It's unfortunate. Spencer Cox has a bright future ahead of him regardless, but it will be unfortunate for the rest of us if we have to deal with Huntsman as governor again.

[YOhio]

I really like Cox (not in that way, sicko AA). He's smart, earnest, substantive, and seems to have a great personality. But man he gives off a strong EFY speaker vibe.

[Uncle Ted]

I really like Cox (not in that way, sicko AA). He's smart, earnest, substantive, and seems to have a great personality. But man he gives off a strong EFY speaker vibe.

Yeah, he does... that speaker vibe would be perfect to represent Utah, however.


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[CardiacCoug]

I really like Cox (not in that way, sicko AA). He's smart, earnest, substantive, and seems to have a great personality. But man he gives off a strong EFY speaker vibe.

Ha ha yeah I like him too. A lot of head movements going on there. So earnest!! So nerdy!!

[Applejack]

I really like Cox (not in that way, sicko AA). He's smart, earnest, substantive, and seems to have a great personality. But man he gives off a strong EFY speaker vibe.

Haha. I love me some Utah, but the bellyaching from my family about this massive earthquake is laughable.

[old_gregg]

Haha. I love me some Utah, but the bellyaching from my family about this massive earthquake is laughable.

never forget

[Jeff Lebowski]

never forget

[USUC]

So WTF? Is Hughes still surging or not?

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/fea...imary-election

[Jeff Lebowski]

So WTF? Is Hughes still surging or not?

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/fea...imary-election

Yikes.

[YOhio]

This is going to be such a weird primary. A lot of factors make the polling pretty unreliable. A ton of people have already voted by mail. Those who received ballots were already registered R or changed affiliation before the mail-in deadline. Up until a week or so ago voters could still change affiliation for in-person voting. But it remains unclear how much the spike in COVID-19 cases will impact election day turnout. I think these variables help Cox and Hughes the most and hurt Huntsman. Hughes isn't going to get a lot of votes from unaffiliated or Dem voters. Cox is going to have a little more appeal, but probably not a ton and his campaign was pretty good at pushing mail-in voting. Huntsman seems to have the most appeal to the changeover voters and will be hurt if they don't show up. But I could be wrong.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Just read that 48k dems have become registered Republicans to throw support to Huntsman.

Source? I find that number very hard to believe.

OK, I did some digging on this. Republican numbers have increased by about 63K voters since May 4. 40K unaffiliated voters have switched and 7K democrats have switched. That leaves a net increase of 15K that I guess were previously unregistered? Total = 778K.

So if you add the unaffiliated and democrat block, you get close to the 48K number, but it would be a stretch to say they all switched to vote for Huntsman.

[wapiti]

OK, I did some digging on this. Republican numbers have increased by about 63K voters since May 4. 40K unaffiliated voters have switched and 7K democrats have switched. That leaves a net increase of 15K that I guess were previously unregistered? Total = 778K.

So if you add the unaffiliated and democrat block, you get close to the 48K number, but it would be a stretch to say they all switched to vote for Huntsman.

The poll linked by USUC showed Huntsman with 58-26 lead in crossover voters. So if 48K cross over, Huntsman might pick up 15K votes. I assume that turn out will be high among those that bothered to change their affiliation in order to vote in the primary. If 500,000 people vote then Huntsman gets a 3 point bump from the x-over. So it will probably be that +/- 1. This is going to be very close.

[Jeff Lebowski]

The poll linked by USUC showed Huntsman with 58-26 lead in crossover voters. So if 48K cross over, Huntsman might pick up 15K votes. I assume that turn out will be high among those that bothered to change their affiliation in order to vote in the primary. If 500,000 people vote then Huntsman gets a 3 point bump from the x-over. So it will probably be that +/- 1. This is going to be very close.

Presumably, the Y2 Analytics would have all this baked into the numbers. Going to be super close.