The Supreme Court, bastion of conservatism

[frank ryan]

Yeah, I am guessing that BK may not be very nice for the left, especially for issues that may make it to the SCOTUS that may be near and dear to Dr. Ford's heart... (or maybe her stock options).

Get your head out of your ass. Of Kavanaugh would not be good for the left, but neither would anyone Trump nominates in his place.

[Uncle Ted]

Geez, UT. Those are nasty accusations.

Pure speculation, JL... Only Dr. Ford is allowed to make nasty accusations.

[Goatnapper'96]

Plus it sounds like the FBI's investigation is limited by the White House, so there won't be any real risk to the nominee.

LOL! Limited to what frank?

It sounds to me like a whole hell of a lot of whining about sham politics based upon allegations that have as close to no support as there can be. I get your feelings are hurt because or Merrick Garland but have the honesty to admit this is the left's noble and virtuous response to the despicable political move by Senator McConnell. There is no FBI investigation that will satisfy the left. I am fine with what is going on but lets not suppose there is anything that will be discovered.

Since the left is clearly being genuine and deeply concerned about maintaining and preserving the integrity of the Senate's role in this process what does the left want investigated? I am assuming the left wants the allegations of sexual assault by Dr Ford investigated - what else would be relevant?

[Uncle Ted]

Get your head out of your ass. Of Kavanaugh would not be good for the left, but neither would anyone Trump nominates in his place.

Especially now given that he has gone through this circus put on by the dems... I am guessing that BK's payback is going to be a b*tch. If there is a ruling he is teetering on it will most likely always teeter to the right.

[smokymountainrain]

[falafel]

Kavanaugh's Yale classmates who say he's lying about his drinking habits want to talk to the FBI, but are reportedly being ignored



https://www.businessinsider.com/kava...rce=reddit.com

If the FBI is restrained to those witnesses, it's a foregone conclusion that Kavanaugh will be fine.

Why would his drinking habits at Yale have anything to do with an incident in highschool?

[Goatnapper'96]

Especially now given that he has gone through this circus put on by the dems... I am guessing that BK's payback is going to be a b*tch. If there is a ruling he is teetering on it will most likely always teeter to the right.

Should he get to the SCOTUS, I am thinking he will codify as burden of proof: "was there anything to gain?" at some point in time in his tenure. If there is nothing to gain the testimony should be believed.

[Goatnapper'96]

Why would his drinking habits at Yale have anything to do with an incident in highschool?

Because his friend at Yale had nothing to gain by coming forward with this info.

[Omaha 680]

Get your head out of your ass. Of Kavanaugh would not be good for the left, but neither would anyone Trump nominates in his place.

Correct. Which is why the plan was delay sharing these serious allegations until the last possible moment, hope the investigation allows a vote to be delayed until after the election, win back the Senate, and then stonewall to keep the seat empty for 2 years until there is a Democrat president.

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[creekster]

Why would his drinking habits at Yale have anything to do with an incident in highschool?

It goes to his credibility. He asserted he had never had so much alcohol that he blacked out. This seems very unlikely to me based upon what he has himself admitted and based on what other witnesses seem to be saying. If he blacked out as a result of drinking at Yale then he either lied or failed to recall that he could not recall. Both are potentially a problem.

[Uncle Ted]

Correct. Which is why the plan was delay sharing these serious allegations until the last possible moment, hope the investigation allows a vote to be delayed until after the election, win back the Senate, and then stonewall to keep the seat empty for 2 years until there is a Democrat president.

I wonder if the dems will win back the senate... Right now there are only really two states that have senate races look like they could swing to the dems: AZ and NV. There are four states, however, that could swing to the GOP'ers: FL, IN, MO, and ND. (Especially if this dem circus motives more GOP'ers and independents, voting for GOP'ers, to go to the voting polls.) See https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

IMHO, the best that could happen is the senate is 50-50 with Pence voting the tie breaker for everything. The entertainment value for that situation would be high.

[creekster]

Well preponderance of evidence means 51%, or more likely than not. This is the standard used in civil cases. I'm wondering what she's arguing--is this standard being used in the confirmation at all? If so, that's pretty silly. We'll only disqualify someone if they exceed that standard?

There is no standard that is required to be applied to the committee decision. As someone noted, it's up to the senators. The prosecutor's memo is an evaluation of the evidence presented. As a prosecutor she has to decide whether or not to prosecute cases. Under the law, there are many standards which can, very roughly, be put on a scale of likelihood. So, for example, probable cause is something like 30-40% likely. Beyond a reasonable doubt probably means 80-95%. Preponderance of the evidence is where the scales tip in likelihood and is usually described as being at 51% . So I think what she is doing is assessing the evidence she has seen and describing how likely it is that this evidence leads to a conviction. In making her assessment she points out that not only does it not meet the reasonable doubt standard, the evidence doesn't even rise to a 51% or preponderance level. In other words, while there is SOME basis for Ford's claim, the probability is LESS than HALF that it is correct. It is actually a pretty damning thing to say.

I cant imagine how anyone could chose to torpedo a guy's career based on an assertion that is not even more than half likely to be true.

[frank ryan]

Correct. Which is why the plan was delay sharing these serious allegations until the last possible moment, hope the investigation allows a vote to be delayed until after the election, win back the Senate, and then stonewall to keep the seat empty for 2 years until there is a Democrat president.

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Or Kavanaugh is a shitty nominee. They won’t be able to stonewall a nominee until January. Don’t be silly. It’s about Kavanaugh, not about resisting nominating a conservative as much as the GOP whine hypocritically that it is the case.

[frank ryan]

[QUOTE=falafel;1383478]Why would his drinking habits at Yale have anything to do with an incident in highschool

Seriously? For one it would call his honesty and cried I pity in question, not to mention may have accompanied other inappropriate sexual behaviour

[creekster]

Human memory just isn't very reliable, and it certainly isn't as reliable as we *think* it is.

I had a case once where a guy who was seriously injured testified that his injury occurred when his foot inadvertently hit certain hydraulic controls that allowed the machine to lower on his body. He was adamant about how this happened and insisted that the controls should have been protected by a guard. The problem is that the controls WERE guarded and there is simply no way his accident could have occurred in the manner he described. But not even photos would shake his testimony. I don't think he was lying, I think he had just convinced himself of something that, while not reflected by reality, had become his own personal reality. It happens all the time.