The Fiscal Cliff

[calicoug]

That's nothing... Congress, as a whole, has an approval rating of a whopping 5% (83% disapprove). Nice job, guys!


Time to fire everyone and let the Libertarians take over.

This might surprise you, but I wouldn't be upset at all if every single member of Congress lost their seat. Congress is broken. The fundamental issue is American's refusal to participate in primaries. I've said this before, but primary voting is far more important than general election voting. If the numbers of participation were flipped for the primaries and the general election, we would have much better representation overall relative to what we have today. Today, a small handful of radicals can take over the government and grind it to a halt. If more voted in primaries, we would have more moderate candidates emerge from primaries (because the majority of the electorate is, by definition, moderate). Then it would be a lot less relevant which of the two party candidates would actually win the election. Either way, we would be better off than we are now.

So vote in primaries.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Huh. Apparently you think the threat of default is the only thing that causes the market to move. Look at the movement of the one month t bill rate and compare it to others. Then explain why that is happening without referring to the debt ceiling. Good luck.

The 30 day rate means nothing in this context. You're desperate. We had the same upswing during the two weeks following Obama's inauguration. There will be no default and and everyone knows it.

[Uncle Ted]

I agree with a lot of what you said with a couple of exceptions...

ACA is a messy piece of legislation and may be as bad as some in the GOP argue. However, It has passed Congress, it has been signed by the President, and it has been found Constitutional by the Supreme Court. If it is that bad, then yes - people who oppose it should continue to discuss the act, but in ways expressed defined and expected by the Constitution.

Recall that Pelosi said:

Now that folks have had a chance to find out what is in it, they don't like it:

OCPoll.jpg
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...ition/2817169/

I expect that number to get worse before it gets any better. It seems voting to defund Obamacare seems perfectly fine to do by the constitution. Of course, it is kind of dumb for the Tea partiers to get rid of it that way (good luck getting the votes in the senate not to mention past Obama's desk). A lot of those 66% of 18 to 30 year olds that voted for Obama may never vote for a dem again after they figure out just how much they are being screwed when they see their health insurance has gone up 260% and they can only find a part-time job with no health insurance benefits.

If things keep going the way they are with respect to Obamacare folks may be begging for the "death panels" to put them out of their misery.

So here we are, with the shutdown. Government shutdown is a government shutdown. It shuts down all but defined essential government services and activities. Many former students and friends are now sitting at home, not earning a living.

No, actually they will very likely still get paid: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ck-pay/?iid=EL

You shouldn't feel a bit sorry for your former students and friends sitting at home watching reruns of Oprah. If they are smart they would have noted that the furloughed gov employees still got paid the last time the government "shutdown". The entire thing is a political theater.

BTW, you should tell them that it is a great time for them to go backpacking in the national parks. They would pretty much have the place to themselves.

[Uncle Ted]

This might surprise you, but I wouldn't be upset at all if every single member of Congress lost their seat. Congress is broken. The fundamental issue is American's refusal to participate in primaries. I've said this before, but primary voting is far more important than general election voting. If the numbers of participation were flipped for the primaries and the general election, we would have much better representation overall relative to what we have today. Today, a small handful of radicals can take over the government and grind it to a halt. If more voted in primaries, we would have more moderate candidates emerge from primaries (because the majority of the electorate is, by definition, moderate). Then it would be a lot less relevant which of the two party candidates would actually win the election. Either way, we would be better off than we are now.

So vote in primaries.

Poll: Voters prefer hemorrhoids over Congress
ON POLITICS


Voters say they have a higher opinion of hemorrhoids than Congress, by 53% to 31%. More than seven in 10 voters say they view jury duty more favorably than Congress, which musters only 18% support in that comparison. Even toenail fungus rates 3 percentage points higher Congress.


Overall, voters in PPP's telephone poll gave Congress an 8% approval rating. Nearly nine in 10 voters, or 86%, say they disapprove of Congress — which is in line with a recent CNN survey.


"Congress having an 8% approval rating tells us one thing about how unhappy voters are," said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. "But it's even more telling that voters have a lower opinion of it than annoyances like the DMV and jury duty, health issues like hemorrhoids, and even witches."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpoli...-poll/2944343/

[VirginiaCougar]

I agree with a lot of what you said with a couple of exceptions...



Recall that Pelosi said:

Now that folks have had a chance to find out what is in it, they don't like it:

[ATTACH]3142[/ATTACH]
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...ition/2817169/

I expect that number to get worse before it gets any better. It seems voting to defund Obamacare seems perfectly fine to do by the constitution. Of course, it is kind of dumb for the Tea partiers to get rid of it that way (good luck getting the votes in the senate not to mention past Obama's desk). A lot of those 66% of 18 to 30 year olds that voted for Obama may never vote for a dem again after they figure out just how much they are being screwed when they see their health insurance has gone up 260% and they can only find a part-time job with no health insurance benefits.

If things keep going the way they are with respect to Obamacare folks may be begging for the "death panels" to put them out of their misery.




No, actually they will very likely still get paid: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ck-pay/?iid=EL

You shouldn't feel a bit sorry for your former students and friends sitting at home watching reruns of Oprah. If they are smart they would have noted that the furloughed gov employees still got paid the last time the government "shutdown". The entire thing is a political theater.

BTW, you should tell them that it is a great time for them to go backpacking in the national parks. They would pretty much have the place to themselves.

Ted, yes they should go backpacking! I also think you are right that they are likely to be paid, but there are no guarantees of that.

Yes, Obamacare as a term is not liked by Americans. Poll after poll shows that. Those same polls show that Americans really like much of what is in ACA when it is offered as an alternative to the name "Obamacare." The term has been property demonized. Actual policy is another matter and it will be interesting to see what happens over time if ACA survives all this nonsense.

[calicoug]

The 30 day rate means nothing in this context. You're desperate. We had the same upswing during the two weeks following Obama's inauguration. There will be no default and and everyone knows it.

Clearly by your logic it must mean Obama is being inaugurated again this month.

It doesn't mean "nothing." And if "everyone knows it," the change is totally irrational.

You may also want to revise "everyone" to exclude at least these small funds:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9970LU20131008

You may want to inform this group too:

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldm...eiling-2013-10

These guys have no reason to be concerned:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...21803490367042

Our largest debtholder can rest easy too:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...s-markets-live

Blankfein should stop fussing:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101081130

This guy also likely has no idea what he is talking about:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertle...brinksmanship/

The IMF and US Chamber of Commerce should stop opining:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/poli...icle-1.1480121

Makes you wonder why all of these groups are warning about the economic impact of something that, according to you, has no chance of happening and that "nobody believes" could happen.

[creekster]

Not what I said. I said citing the market as evidence that something would or would not happen was silly. Citing it to show whether people think something might happen is different. The absence of movement doesn't indicate "nobody believes" something might happen but movement does suggest at least many believe something might happen.

i very, very rarely use smileys. but this merits a

[Uncle Ted]

Ted, yes they should go backpacking! I also think you are right that they are likely to be paid, but there are no guarantees of that.

It is pretty much guaranteed. The president has already said he would approve of it. Harry just has to put it to a vote in the senate but it seems he is wisely waiting for the shutdown to end first. There will most likely be a few hold outs (i.e. Ted and Mike) but it will pass.

I am guessing your former students and friends could even get a loan against their future paychecks at one of those paycheck loan places if they are tight for money. Of course, the interest rate might be 29.9%.

Yes, Obamacare as a term is not liked by Americans. Poll after poll shows that. Those same polls show that Americans really like much of what is in ACA when it is offered as an alternative to the name "Obamacare." The term has been property demonized. Actual policy is another matter and it will be interesting to see what happens over time if ACA survives all this nonsense.

The poll is not about the term Obamacare.

The poll is about how people are liking the health law less and less now as they learn what the law is actually about...
81.jpg
http://www.people-press.org/2013/09/...ainty-persist/

Now folks understand they can't keep their doctor and their health care plan, that they won't be saving $2,500 as a family as promised but their health care insurance will be going up instead, and that their deductible will be much higher. In short, they starting to understand that Obama lied to them to get the law passed. Do the dems actually believe this is all just nonsense?!?


One of the interesting results of this poll is that the same group of 18-29 year olds that largely voted for Obama are largely clueless about the healthcare law...

112.jpg

Maybe you should take a little time to educate your students on how they are required to buy insurance that will be going up on an average of 260% for them. How, thanks to this law, they may have a hard time finding full-time employment. In short, how it may "rape" their future and make them poor. Also, encourage them to go into engineering.

[Uncle Ted]

ACA is a messy piece of legislation and may be as bad as some in the GOP argue. However, It has passed Congress, it has been signed by the President, and it has been found Constitutional by the Supreme Court. If it is that bad, then yes - people who oppose it should continue to discuss the act, but in ways expressly defined and expected by the Constitution.

Oh yeah... I forgot to mention that the ACA is still being challenged:

All told, Obamacare and its tens of thousands of pages of companion regulations have spawned nearly 100 lawsuits, although, as Washington and Lee University legal scholar Timothy Jost has pointed out, “over half of these challenge a single regulation promulgated under the law (the preventive services contraceptive requirement) rather than the law itself.” Currently, dozens of other lawsuits are pending. However, many are on hold until the law fully takes effect in 2014. That said, at least five are moving forward, having cleared preliminary hurdles to being heard on their merits. Each of these court cases raise constitutional or significant legal questions, i.e., whose resolution has the potential to significantly disrupt implementation of the law. These cases are presented below in order of the gravity (not likelihood) of the threat posed to the ACA.
[...]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapoth...ail-obamacare/

It is more accurate to say the supreme court just ruled it to be a tax even though Obama said otherwise.

[VirginiaCougar]

Oh yeah... I forgot to mention that the ACA is still being challenged:


http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapoth...ail-obamacare/

It is more accurate to say the supreme court just ruled it to be a tax even though Obama said otherwise.

Is this the real fear?:

http://m.sltrib.com/sltrib/mobile3/5...plans.html.csp

When I get to a PC I'll also try and post poll data on specific elements of ACA. It isn't as you argue.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk 4

[Uncle Ted]

Is this the real fear?:

http://m.sltrib.com/sltrib/mobile3/5...plans.html.csp

When I get to a PC I'll also try and post poll data on specific elements of ACA. It isn't as you argue.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk 4

Do dems believe that the money magically appears from no where to pay the difference in this family's health insurance?

After plugging in particulars about his family of five, the Salt Lake City business owner was able to compare 38 plans and apply for tax credits to put toward his monthly premiums. He settled on a silver-level plan from Altius that retails for about $850 a month.

After tax credits, the Sherburnes will pay just $123 a month.

Note that this is a tax credit and carefully consider what that means.

This family will be paying $10,200 for their health insurance. Of course, if they pay more than $8,724 $17,724 (considering the get a $3,000 tax credit for each kid...) in taxes they will actually only pay $123/mo. The question is will they actually pay that much in taxes. Also, I see $9,000 in tax credits in just kids if the picture is correct and the kids belong to them. Also, I assume they will have some state income taxes.

Assuming they are married and filing jointly...


http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphi...unts-and-more/

In short, it seems they will need to be making more than six figures for that much in tax credits. If they are making more than six figures then would they still qualify for the tax credit?

Edit: Where the hell is Moliere to check my math?

[imanihonjin]

Since the shutdown, the GOP has been purposefully trying to change the dialogue to place the blame for the shutdown (which their tea party faction chose to do) off of them and to the President. Even if distasteful, I understand the strategy. Tea Party Republicans specifically have organized and planned a number of the monument events, for the very effect they got. I find it particularly offensive to use honored WWII vets in their 80-90s for such political purposes. But that series of events sure got the coverage they wanted. That is what has happened in a number of similar events/disputes about what should be opened. Most have been rather strategically planned for effect. Ideological media have done their part to spin these closures/actions one way or the other depending on which extreme they are on.

I love how you keep saying this, that these were staged events and that the Republicans manipulated WWII vets for political reasons, when the Honor Flight visits were planned nearly a year ago. I am sure that the whole planning one year ago was all a coordinated effort. Nevertheless.....the NPS allowed a pro immigration rally to happen yesterday on the National Mall but wouldn't allow WWII vets to visit a memorial to honor them and somehow it is Republicans who are politicizing our WWII vets. Wow.

Also, to your terrorist security concerns. Yeah I would be worried about terrorists wanting to attack a mostly empty memorial. Additionally, do you seriously believe that our anti-terrorism efforts have been affected at all by this shutdown? They most certainly have not.

[Uncle Ted]

I love how you keep saying this, that these were staged events and that the Republicans manipulated WWII vets for political reasons, when the Honor Flight visits were planned nearly a year ago. I am sure that the whole planning one year ago was all a coordinated effort. Nevertheless.....the NPS allowed a pro immigration rally to happen yesterday on the National Mall but wouldn't allow WWII vets to visit a memorial to honor them and somehow it is Republicans who are politicizing our WWII vets. Wow.

Also, to your terrorist security concerns. Yeah I would be worried about terrorists wanting to attack a mostly empty memorial. Additionally, do you seriously believe that our anti-terrorism efforts have been affected at all by this shutdown? They most certainly have not.

No, it is pretty clear that the government still has security on these memorials to take care of the so called "terrorists"...

NV27i60.jpg

[imanihonjin]

Do dems believe that the money magically appears from no where to pay the difference in this family's health insurance?



Note that this is a tax credit and carefully consider what that means.

This family will be paying $10,200 for their health insurance. Of course, if they pay more than $8,724 in taxes they will actually only pay $123/mo. The question is will they actually pay that much in taxes. Also, I see $9,000 in tax credits in just kids if the picture is correct and the kids belong to them. Also, I assume they will have some state income taxes.

Assuming they are married and filing jointly...


http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphi...unts-and-more/

In short, it seems they will need to be making more than six figures for that much in tax credits. If they are making more than six figures then would they still qualify for the tax credit?

I haven't looked to check and see what type of credit Obamacare subsidies would be, but some credits are refunded to the extent taxes are paid and other credits will actually refund you cash beyond what you actually pay in taxes. I am guessing that Obamacare subsidies are the latter.

[Uncle Ted]

I haven't looked to check and see what type of credit Obamacare subsidies would be, but some credits are refunded to the extent taxes are paid and other credits will actually refund you cash beyond what you actually pay in taxes. I am guessing that Obamacare subsidies are the latter.

Why are they calling it a tax credit instead of a subsidy?

I thought that was the medicaid extension. Is Utah one of the states that extended medicaid? BTW, where does the money for the medicaid extension magically come from?