The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Rubio staying in the race after March 1 was an enormous error on his part that will hurt both himself and the chances of toppling Trump. If the polls are anywhere close to accurate, and that is not a given at all this year, Rubio is about to get beaten badly in his home state. That seems to me to be a career-ender politically.

But compounding that is the fact that Rubio has prevented Cruz and, sometimes, possibly Kasich from getting more delegates which have instead gone to Trump. As an example, without Rubio, Cruz would have captured all of Idaho's delegates by getting over 50%.

Rubio had some bargaining power with Cruz. He could have been the running mate or received a cabinet position.

[Uncle Ted]

Rubio staying in the race after March 1 was an enormous error on his part that will hurt both himself and the chances of toppling Trump. If the polls are anywhere close to accurate, and that is not a given at all this year, Rubio is about to get beaten badly in his home state. That seems to me to be a career-ender politically.

But compounding that is the fact that Rubio has prevented Cruz and, sometimes, possibly Kasich from getting more delegates which have instead gone to Trump. As an example, without Rubio, Cruz would have captured all of Idaho's delegates by getting over 50%.

Rubio had some bargaining power with Cruz. He could have been the running mate or received a cabinet position.

If Drumpf gets the nomination then we all can blame Rubio.


Edit: Also http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...orters-to-drop

[BlueK]

Yeah, Bernie doesn't have a chance getting the nomination against Clinton because of the super delegate problem and the Bernie supporters may end up burning down the democratic convention center in the protest. But if it did come down to Bernie and Drumpf I would very tempted to skip voting for my beloved libertarian party candidate (whoever he or she may be) and "feel the bern". I don't think Bernie can do any close to the damage that Drumpf would. If it was down to Trump and Sanders then I would vote for the hippy.

You make a good point. I'd seriously consider voting for Bernie as well. It probably wouldn't make any difference in my state though. Drumpf isn't very popular in Texas, but I don't think Sanders could win here.

[BlueK]

Rubio staying in the race after March 1 was an enormous error on his part that will hurt both himself and the chances of toppling Trump. If the polls are anywhere close to accurate, and that is not a given at all this year, Rubio is about to get beaten badly in his home state. That seems to me to be a career-ender politically.

But compounding that is the fact that Rubio has prevented Cruz and, sometimes, possibly Kasich from getting more delegates which have instead gone to Trump. As an example, without Rubio, Cruz would have captured all of Idaho's delegates by getting over 50%.

Rubio had some bargaining power with Cruz. He could have been the running mate or received a cabinet position.

Hard to argue with that. I think if Rubio drops out after March 1st Trump would be seriously in doubt right now and Cruz might actually be ahead in delegates. Trump is still beatable, but it will take a few things to fall the right way tomorrow. And some of those things I actually think have a better chance of happening than the media is currently making it appear.

1. Kasich has to win Ohio. Reading the polls and how hard Kasich is working there I think this is likely. In fact, I think it's possible Kasich actually beats Trump soundly there which would make a few waves that could affect other states down the line. One near constant so far has been that Trump usually underperforms the polling numbers. There are probably various reasons for this, but it has been pretty consistent. There are several states already where Trump was killing it in the polls but only won by a few points. That's one thing that makes me think a 5-6 point lead in the polls for Kasich might translate to a double digit win for him tomorrow. That might have some influence in states voting down the line. Unfortunately it won't matter to states like Illinois that vote on the same day.

2. Cruz has to do well in Illinois, Missouri, NC. Polls show the race to be tight in Illinois and Missouri with Trump having a pretty good lead in N.C. Cruz has been campaigning very hard in those states, especially Illinois and Missouri where I think he senses he's got a great chance. The trend seems to be in his favor there, but hard to tell if it's enough. Cruz has done well, sometimes surprisingly well in all the states he's worked hard in. NC appears to be the least likely for him to win, but the good news there is that it's proportional, so Cruz will likely still do well enough to get some delegates. IL and MO award delegates by congressional district, so at worst, I think Cruz gets at least a few in each as he would likely have an advantage in the wealthier, higher educated areas. I think he actually has a good chance to win one of those states, maybe both

3. Florida is probably going to Trump, but given that Rubio is thought to have picked up an early lead from the early voters, it's possible it might still be surprisingly close. Or Trump may win easily. Either scenario isn't that terrible from the anti-Trump perspective though. A win by Trump most likely means Rubio steps out. If he does he probably immediately endorses Cruz and I think most of his voters would go to Cruz. If they've stuck with Rubio for this long it most likely means there's a strong dislike for Trump in light of everything Rubio has been saying about him.

[Northwestcoug]

If Drumpf gets the nomination then we all can blame Rubio.

I don't know if this is TIC, but we could just as easily blame Cruz for preventing Rubio or someone else getting the nomination. I'd much rather place blame on who deserves it most; Trump supporters.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I don't know if this is TIC, but we could just as easily blame Cruz for preventing Rubio or someone else getting the nomination. I'd much rather place blame on who deserves it most; Trump supporters.

No, Cruz has actually been winning states and was getting close in others. Rubio won one state -- Minnesota. I could kind of understand staying in through March 5, but that batch of primaries showed that Cruz was ascendant and Rubio was hardly even a marginal candidate.

[SeattleUte]

Why Mormons do not like Drumpf.

http://www.sltrib.com/news/3640968-1...e-among-mormon

Ha! When I saw this I said to myself, probably for all the wrong reasons.

"You have a group who cares more about politics than the church, those Mormons tend to be Trump supporters," Miles said. "For those religion-first Mormons, they won't support Trump. They'll say he had too many divorces, and they don't see him as a strong moral leader."

Look in the mirror, Republicans, the beast you!

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...ump-phenomenon

[BlueK]

Ha! When I saw this I said to myself, probably for all the wrong reasons.



Look in the mirror, Republicans, the beast you!

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...ump-phenomenon

I see you deliberately ignored one of the reasons stated in the article which was that most mormons are more liberal about immigration policy than most republicans are.

[Commando]

Ha! When I saw this I said to myself, probably for all the wrong reasons.

I don't think that's accurate. Mormons wouldn't care about his divorces. That's such a weird supposition. I think they care more about his vulgar, lying persona, which is what most people opposed to Trump cite.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Hard to argue with that. I think if Rubio drops out after March 1st Trump would be seriously in doubt right now and Cruz might actually be ahead in delegates. Trump is still beatable, but it will take a few things to fall the right way tomorrow. And some of those things I actually think have a better chance of happening than the media is currently making it appear.

1. Kasich has to win Ohio. Reading the polls and how hard Kasich is working there I think this is likely. In fact, I think it's possible Kasich actually beats Trump soundly there which would make a few waves that could affect other states down the line. One near constant so far has been that Trump usually underperforms the polling numbers. There are probably various reasons for this, but it has been pretty consistent. There are several states already where Trump was killing it in the polls but only won by a few points. That's one thing that makes me think a 5-6 point lead in the polls for Kasich might translate to a double digit win for him tomorrow. That might have some influence in states voting down the line. Unfortunately it won't matter to states like Illinois that vote on the same day.

2. Cruz has to do well in Illinois, Missouri, NC. Polls show the race to be tight in Illinois and Missouri with Trump having a pretty good lead in N.C. Cruz has been campaigning very hard in those states, especially Illinois and Missouri where I think he senses he's got a great chance. The trend seems to be in his favor there, but hard to tell if it's enough. Cruz has done well, sometimes surprisingly well in all the states he's worked hard in. NC appears to be the least likely for him to win, but the good news there is that it's proportional, so Cruz will likely still do well enough to get some delegates. IL and MO award delegates by congressional district, so at worst, I think Cruz gets at least a few in each as he would likely have an advantage in the wealthier, higher educated areas. I think he actually has a good chance to win one of those states, maybe both

3. Florida is probably going to Trump, but given that Rubio is thought to have picked up an early lead from the early voters, it's possible it might still be surprisingly close. Or Trump may win easily. Either scenario isn't that terrible from the anti-Trump perspective though. A win by Trump most likely means Rubio steps out. If he does he probably immediately endorses Cruz and I think most of his voters would not go to Cruz. If they've stuck with Rubio for this long it most likely means there's a strong dislike for Trump in light of everything Rubio has been saying about him.

RCP says that Illinois and Missouri are winner-take-all, but it sounds like they have some delegates that are given by congressional district, unless someone gets 50% state wide. Cruz, who's been by far the smartest candidate on the Republican side, is trying to pick up delegates in various congressional districts. I agree that Kasich appears to be headed towards an Ohio win.

With Florida giving all its delegates to Trump, Trump will win the night. But Kasich will end up with Ohio's delegates and Cruz is going to take a chunk out of North Carolina, Illinois and Missouri. There are something like 360 delegates from the contests tomorrow. Kasich will get 66 from Ohio and Trump will get 99 from Florida. Of the 193 remaining delegates, Kasich will get zero of them, Rubio could get a couple, Trump will probably get around 110 and Cruz will get around 80.

Cruz is behind by 90 delegates right now. He'll be behind by over 200 by the end of tomorrow night. But hopefully, enough of the delegates will be taken away that we can get to a contested convention. It doesn't matter if the GOP pisses off Trump's supporters, he must not get the nomination. Trump would lose the general anyway and sweep away a lot of Senators with him, so you're better off with a weakened candidate who won't be totally radioactive.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I don't think that's accurate. Mormons wouldn't care about his divorces. That's such a weird supposition. I think they care more about his vulgar, lying persona, which is what most people opposed to Trump cite.

Yeah, I rolled my eyes when I read the part SU quoted.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I don't think that's accurate. Mormons wouldn't care about his divorces. That's such a weird supposition. I think they care more about his vulgar, lying persona, which is what most people opposed to Trump cite.

I agree with this, I think Mormons find his persona and behavior appalling. It's certainly not his position on muslims.

[myboynoah]

Yeah, I rolled my eyes when I read the part SU quoted.

That was just dumb.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

There was a poll that came out that said that 22% of those polled were more likely to vote for Trump after the Friday night events and 11% less likely.

Joe Scarborough thinks that Trump knew exactly was he was doing when he planned that event in Chicago at an arena on a college campus -- one the Daleys seems to think so.

I'm a little skeptical of whether this kind of nonsense will continue getting more support for Trump, I don't know if people want to see more of this crazy shit for the rest of this campaign, let alone for four years. I was appalled by that whole thing. While, the lefty protestors bear the majority of the fault for that event (they're the ones that wanted to shut down the rally), Trump knew that setting up that event at that location was likely to cause controversy. He of course took advantage of it and received wall-to-wall coverage for the remainder of the night.

But it seems to me that if there is a silent majority in the electorate overall, then there is one in the GOP primaries. If you vote for Trump, then you're voting for more of this spectacle and drama.

[Jeff Lebowski]

There was a poll that came out that said that 22% of those polled were more likely to vote for Trump after the Friday night events and 11% less likely.

Joe Scarborough thinks that Trump knew exactly was he was doing when he planned that event in Chicago at an arena on a college campus -- one the Daleys seems to think so.

I'm a little skeptical of whether this kind of nonsense will continue getting more support for Trump, I don't know if people want to see more of this crazy shit for the rest of this campaign, let alone for four years. I was appalled by that whole thing. While, the lefty protestors bear the majority of the fault for that event (they're the ones that wanted to shut down the rally), Trump knew that setting up that event at that location was likely to cause controversy. He of course took advantage of it and received wall-to-wall coverage for the remainder of the night.

But it seems to me that if there is a silent majority in the electorate overall, then there is one in the GOP primaries. If you vote for Trump, then you're voting for more of this spectacle and drama.

I think these most recent protests at Trump rallies are playing right into Trump hands. The base of Trump support is people who are already inclined to authoritarianism. When you get a whiff of anarchy, the immediate reaction is to identify even more strongly with an authoritarian. These recent vocal protesters at the rallies are doing Trump a huge favor. Argh...