The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

FFS, no one is "beating up" on Trump. He is doing it to himself by the things he keeps saying. Yes, Hillary is corrupt, but so is Trump and he represents the worst of America. Can you not see why people might think he would make a worse president than Hillary?

I didn't say "beating up" I said "beating" those are two very different statements. Ive said multiple times both are nuclear options, no I don't think she would be better than him, nor do I think he would be better than her. Either will be awful beyond description.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Did anyone hear Donald Trump say yesterday that Barack Obama is the "founder" of ISIS? Then on MSNBC in a short interview he doubled down and said it again. As his poll numbers come down does he moderate his message? Hell no! Buckle up and enjoy the spectacle. The more he sinks in the polls the crazier he's going to get, including being more direct with his message to his supporters to get violent. That's my prediction anyway. The author of the CNN piece below seems to be thinking along the same lines as me.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/10/opinio...zer/index.html

I still believe he's going to win, many of these same polls showed him falling behind in primaries and losing ground. I did listen to a fun conspiracy podcast that laid out how Trump would intentionally sabotage the election, he's already preaching about how rigged it is so we won't believe he's a loser. Maybe he releases the tax return and shows large amounts of income from the Clinton Foundation? That's more believable than any of the JFK or 9/11 conspiracies.

[BlueK]

I still believe he's going to win, many of these same polls showed him falling behind in primaries and losing ground. I did listen to a fun conspiracy podcast that laid out how Trump would intentionally sabotage the election, he's already preaching about how rigged it is so we won't believe he's a loser. Maybe he releases the tax return and shows large amounts of income from the Clinton Foundation? That's more believable than any of the JFK or 9/11 conspiracies.

I'm not talking conspiracies. I'm just speculating that he'll become even more of a loose cannon if things start to look less promising for him. The polls were right last time despite all the work conservatives and republicans put into explaining how Romney was still going to win. If you look state by state it seems impossible as of today that he could get the right combination of states together to get to 270, and the trends in the polls of swing states is going in the wrong direction for him, while states that haven't been swing states are becoming swing states. It could still get close, but I think it's more likely he gets trounced than wins.

By the way, if you do a detailed study of the polls during the primaries, he did lose the states that showed him down in the polls, and he actually usually underperformed the polls even in the states he still won -- it's just that he started off so far ahead that it was too much for his split opponents to overcome. Virginia is a good example of that. Rubio was something like 18 points down less than a week before the election and Trump only won by 3 points. I work in market research, so this topic has a little more interest for me than the average person. The polls are indeed behaving much differently right now than months ago or during the primaries. There has been some real movement in public opinion since the conventions. I think a reasonable explanation is that it's just that there are some significant numbers in the population who have just now started paying more attention. Yes, it can change but it will take something external of the Trump campaign to do it, IMO. Right now Trump is just speaking louder and more provocatively to his own base but is quickly turning off everyone else right at the point in the election cycle where the non-politically addicted start to listen. He's already talking about rigged elections and digging even more into the narratives of the "alt-right," which should be scary to any normal American. It will be interesting to see what other craziness he turns to.

[BlueK]

Trump's strategy right now seems to be trying to turn outlandish conspiratorial beliefs into mainstream talking points. Saying that the current president of the US "founded" ISIS is crazy. We'll see if his advisors can get him to settle down or if he keeps going. I think he keeps going and we start hearing even crazier stuff soon. He's already talking about rigged elections, which seems to be preparing to go down the road of starting to say our only hope is going to be revolution (i.e., the second amendment double talk) or trashing the system entirely to let someone like him take over with an iron fist to fix it. Thankfully I don't think he can pull that off in America like has been done many times in the third world, but I think he's going to try to take the discussion in that direction. This is just nuts. The GOP killed themselves by not taking him on in full force at the very beginning.

[beefytee]

I still believe he's going to win, many of these same polls showed him falling behind in primaries and losing ground.

I wish you'd quit trolling me, HFNW, but here goes...


I must have missed those polls. I don't remember him winning any states that the polls showed him regularly behind. I definitely don't remember him being behind 10 points or more (like he's is currently nationally) and coming back to win. I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just sayings that claiming "its all been done before" is wrong.

Looking it up just now it seems Trump was leading in the polls in Iowa, Oklahoma, and Kansas but lost to Cruz.

I guess Arkansas had one poll where Cruz was leading Trump and lost but it was a month before the primary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo..._Caucuses.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...march1GOP.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...YMaineGOP.html

[BlueK]

I wish you'd quit trolling me, HFNW, but here goes...


I must have missed those polls. I don't remember him winning any states that the polls showed him regularly behind. I definitely don't remember him being behind 10 points or more (like he's is currently nationally) and coming back to win. I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just sayings that claiming "its all been done before" is wrong.

Looking it up just now it seems Trump was leading in the polls in Iowa, Oklahoma, and Kansas but lost to Cruz.

I guess Arkansas had one poll where Cruz was leading Trump and lost but it was a month before the primary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo..._Caucuses.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...march1GOP.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...YMaineGOP.html

You are correct. There are many examples (most of the states in fact) of where Trump did not perform as well at the actual ballot box as the polls would have predicted. He still won in many of those states because he started off so far ahead. He's never been behind by this much in the national polls. There were a few states during the primaries where he was losing, but he lost all of those -- usually by even more than the polls said he would. The polls can change. There have already been a few other times when in the head to head polls vs. Clinton his numbers dropped and then later crept back up.

[Maximus]

Trump's strategy right now seems to be trying to turn outlandish conspiratorial beliefs into mainstream talking points. Saying that the current president of the US "founded" ISIS is crazy. We'll see if his advisors can get him to settle down or if he keeps going. I think he keeps going and we start hearing even crazier stuff soon. He's already talking about rigged elections, which seems to be preparing to go down the road of starting to say our only hope is going to be revolution (i.e., the second amendment double talk) or trashing the system entirely to let someone like him take over with an iron fist to fix it. Thankfully I don't think he can pull that off in America like has been done many times in the third world, but I think he's going to try to take the discussion in that direction. This is just nuts. The GOP killed themselves by not taking him on in full force at the very beginning.

What in the world makes you think he can settle down? He has been doing this for a year straight

[SCcoug]

Trump isn't going to stop saying crazy things people. He's spent all morning doubling down on Barrack HUSSEIN Obama being the founder of ISIS. He isn't going to pivot. He isn't going to build a campaign infrastructure. He is going to lose in epic fashion.

Donald Trump told CNBC on Thursday he will either win with his frank and uncensored style of campaigning or enjoy a "very, very nice long vacation."

Republicans have long hoped Trump will pivot on his behavior, but in the "Squawk Box" interview, he said:

"I'm a truth teller. All I do is tell the truth. And if at the end of 90 days, I've fallen short because I'm somewhat politically correct even though I'm supposed to be the smart one and even though I'm supposed to have a lot of good ideas, it's OK. I go back to a very good way of life."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/11/gop-p...ald-trump.html

[BlueK]

What in the world makes you think he can settle down? He has been doing this for a year straight

You're right. I don't think he will

[Eddie]

With Russia set to invade more Ukrainian territory what would Johnson do?

Embedded Tweet

I did not know that Ukraine was a commonwealth of Russia. I guess you learn something new every day!

[BlueK]

The Barack Obama founded ISIS assertion Trump is choosing to run with now opens the door for him to stand up at his next rally holding a list of names of current government officials who are "known" Communists -- I mean Islamic terrorists. I think this is going to get even crazier as Trump starts to realize he's falling way behind. I think there's a good chance now he decides to go into full troll mode for his own amusement.

[Eddie]

...If you look state by state it seems impossible as of today that he could get the right combination of states together to get to 270, and the trends in the polls of swing states is going in the wrong direction for him, while states that haven't been swing states are becoming swing states...

Trump is going to get absolutely creamed. Hillary will win by more than anyone has won by in a long time.

I'm just sad that we'll probably hear from the left that the reason she won by so much is because she is so popular, so much more qualified, and such a great candidate. Instead of hearing the truth: that the two parties decided to see who could come up with the worst candidate, and the Republicans won. In a landslide.

[old_gregg]

The Barack Obama founded ISIS assertion Trump is choosing to run with now opens the door for him to stand up at his next rally holding a list of names of current government officials who are "known" Communists -- I mean Islamic terrorists. I think this is going to get even crazier as Trump starts to realize he's falling way behind. I think there's a good chance now he decides to go into full troll mode for his own amusement.

trump isn't smart enough to be trolling.

[BlueK]

trump isn't smart enough to be trolling.

I'm also open to the idea he's mentally ill.

[BlueK]

This article makes some interesting observations of the major problem republicans running for office are going to have in November as Trump keeps acting crazy. The comments section is hilarious as Trump's mindless followers continue to live in denial and fantasy.

"With a pivot off the table, Republicans who back Trump will continue to talk up Clinton’s extraordinary lies, ethical liabilities and possible crimes while hoping to dodge questions about whether they too believe President Obama is the founder of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...ap_131484.html