The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Omaha 680]

These labels--like atheist, libertarian--are not helpful. Some of us just have an instinctive loathing and mistrust of government--really, authority in general--that is reaffirmed over and over again. For example, if a road construction bottleneck causes a traffic jam, I presume it's being executed incompetently--or even dishonestly executed--and that if the people in charge were a private enterprise, and we the drivers were customers, it would be done differently and a lot better. I'm always sure of that down to the soles of my feet.

You need a better example. I'm pretty conservative especially on economics, but if roads were all private enterprise and drivers were customers there would be a lot less roads.

[Maximus]

Why wouldn't they? Trump will have the most delegates going into the convention but that doesn't mean they will be loyal to him. They are bound to him on the first ballot but I think it's very likely a good portion of them will be hoping it goes beyond the first ballot.

why would trump or cruz delegates approve rule changes that let someone other than their candidate win?

[Omaha 680]

why would trump or cruz delegates approve rule changes that let someone other than their candidate win?

They are not "Trump" or "Cruz" delegates. They are local party operatives that happen to be pledged to a particular candidate (on the first ballot only) based on the rules of that state's primary. We really have no idea where their loyalties will lie, which is why the campaigns are doing some unprecedented research right now to find out who these delegates are.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

That can and will likely be changed before the convention. It was initiated before the last convention to prevent Paul delegates from disrupting the convention by nominating Paul.

I believe it's extremely unlikely that it won't be Cruz or Trump. If it does get to a contested convention, I think Cruz would actually have the edge. Cruz has been working behind the scenes under the assumption that no one will have enough delegates to get in automatically.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/fe...m-donald-trump

What I don't know is if Kasich will have enough delegates to band together with Trump and secure the nomination. I don't think he'll have enough to do that with Cruz.

Right now, Cruz has Utah in the bag but he really needs to run hard in Arizona. There's a big gap in the primaries after Arizona and Utah with only North Dakota and Wisconsin voting over the course of the next four weeks. If Cruz wins Arizona, then he'll win North Dakota and Wisconsin could be up for grabs. Then they go to New York which is closed and proportional.

[All-American]

Trump refuses to attend Fox debate; Fox cancels debate.

Trump is trying to kneel out the clock.

[myboynoah]

I believe it's extremely unlikely that it won't be Cruz or Trump. If it does get to a contested convention, I think Cruz would actually have the edge. Cruz has been working behind the scenes under the assumption that no one will have enough delegates to get in automatically.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/fe...m-donald-trump

What I don't know is if Kasich will have enough delegates to band together with Trump and secure the nomination. I don't think he'll have enough to do that with Cruz.

Right now, Cruz has Utah in the bag but he really needs to run hard in Arizona. There's a big gap in the primaries after Arizona and Utah with only North Dakota and Wisconsin voting over the course of the next four weeks. If Cruz wins Arizona, then he'll win North Dakota and Wisconsin could be up for grabs. Then they go to New York which is closed and proportional.

I just don't see Kasich teaming with Trump. Cruz would. He's very slimy.

[Uncle Ted]

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Trump refuses to attend Fox debate; Fox cancels debate.

Trump is trying to kneel out the clock.

That requires a compliant media. Fox didn't need to cancel it if Cruz and Kasich wanted to debate (they probably wouldn't have laid a glove on each other and it would have been boring, but it still would have gotten bigger ratings then their normal programming).

Trump still needs 600 delegates. Looking at the number of delegates remaining, is he going to get there? He's gotten around 40% of the delegates so far and he needs to get 60% of the remaining delegates. I'm not sure that is going to happen.

I think the GOP would rather trot out a weakened nominee, even Cruz, rather than have Trump out there destroying whatever the party is at this point.

[creekster]

That requires a compliant media. Fox didn't need to cancel it if Cruz and Kasich wanted to debate (they probably wouldn't have laid a glove on each other and it would have been boring, but it still would have gotten bigger ratings then their normal programming).

Trump still needs 600 delegates. Looking at the number of delegates remaining, is he going to get there? He's gotten around 40% of the delegates so far and he needs to get 60% of the remaining delegates. I'm not sure that is going to happen.

I think the GOP would rather trot out a weakened nominee, even Cruz, rather than have Trump out there destroying whatever the party is at this point.

I heard a report that Kasich withdrew once he heard Trump would not be there. Thus, no one for Cruz to debate.

[Jeff Lebowski]

These labels--like atheist, libertarian--are not helpful. Some of us just have an instinctive loathing and mistrust of government--really, authority in general--that is reaffirmed over and over again. For example, if a road construction bottleneck causes a traffic jam, I presume it's being executed incompetently--or even dishonestly executed--and that if the people in charge were a private enterprise, and we the drivers were customers, it would be done differently and a lot better. I'm always sure of that down to the soles of my feet.

Good call, SU. Let's privatize all of our public roads and highways.

While we are at it, let's privatize the military and law enforcement. What could possibly go wrong!?

[Uncle Ted]

These labels--like atheist, libertarian--are not helpful. Some of us just have an instinctive loathing and mistrust of government--really, authority in general--that is reaffirmed over and over again. For example, if a road construction bottleneck causes a traffic jam, I presume it's being executed incompetently--or even dishonestly executed--and that if the people in charge were a private enterprise, and we the drivers were customers, it would be done differently and a lot better. I'm always sure of that down to the soles of my feet.

[Uncle Ted]

Good call, SU. Let's privatize all of our public roads and highways.

While we are at it, let's privatize the military and law enforcement. What could possibly go wrong!?

How well is it working for us now?

124638_600-2.jpg

[snowcat]

Trump vs. Hillary preview.

I think this shows a flavor of what is to come. Which will resonate more with voters?

[YOUTUBE]gE4h6tOgVgc[/YOUTUBE]

[YOUTUBE]OkSRJSUY0vs[/YOUTUBE]

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Good call, SU. Let's privatize all of our public roads and highways.

While we are at it, let's privatize the military and law enforcement. What could possibly go wrong!?

Just a hunch, but I don't think SU is in favor of privatizing roads.

[BlueK]

The way the primary schedule is set up now it tends to favor Cruz for a while at least. I'll ignore American Samoa for now, but with Arizona and Utah next Saturday and N. Dakota next, it's almost a given that Cruz wins two of those and possibly sweeps. That might be a momentum changer.Then Wisconsin is next April 5th which I could see being a competitive state for all three remaining candidates. It could still get interesting. A truly favorable state for Trump doesn't come until April 19th with NY and others on the east coast. The thing about those primaries though is that it's a lot of time for all three to campaign in all of them to whatever extent they can or want to. Will Kasich get a little bit of a bump from Ohio?

I don't remember who I was watching at the time last night, but they were saying one of the problems the GOP candidates other than Trump have had is that if you think about it, they are not bothering at all to craft their message to reach the Trump voters. They don't understand them perhaps. I don't know. The traditional arguments Cruz and Rubio were using to get to GOP "base" voters is like another language to the people Trump is talking to. Kasich however may have figured it out in Ohio. He started addressing the things the Trump voters seem to be worried about, only doing so in a much more positive way than Trump. He actually seemed to peel away some of Trump's support over the last week of campaigning there. And then he beat him soundly. Granted, of course it was his home state. Still, I think Kasich might have a chance to compete with Trump, or at least with the type of voter who has been gravitating toward Trump in some of the midwest and east coast states coming up if he keeps the same approach.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html