The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Commando]

Months ago I was convinced Trump would get pummeled in the Republican primary and quickly drop out. Instead, he is rolling to victory. The GOP is officially the stupid party.

Clearly. Trump is hitting those notes so hard and there is no way he believes any of it. Playing these dummies like a cello.

[Nakoma]

Trump has 97 percent likelihood of winning the general election according to this poly sci professor's statistical modeling.

https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/...ection-winner/

A professor of political science at Stony Brook University has forecasted that Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee.

***

Norpoth began the presentation with an introduction of the potential matchups in the general election, including a hypothetical Sanders vs. Trump general election.

“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.” Norpoth said referring to Trump and Sanders, as many alumni in the audience laughed. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”

As the presentation continued, laughter turned to silence as Norpoth forecasted a 61 percent chance of a Republican win in the general election.

This forecast was made using the electoral cycle model, which studies a pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office. The model does not assume who would be the party nominees or the conditions of the country at the time.

“You think ‘This is crazy. How can anything come up with something like that?’ ” Norpoth said “But that’s exactly the kind of equation I used to predict Bill Clinton winning in ‘96, that I used to predict that George Bush would win in 2004, and, as you remember four years ago, that Obama would win in 2012.”

[Moliere]

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[byu71]

Hillary isn't going to know what hit her when she runs against Trump. He is going to promise students he will get the Saudi's to pay for their outstanding debt. We will take jobs back from Mexico and China and that will cause wages for the working person to go up 20%. He will promise to break up the banks and tax the crap out of Wall St. That money will go to pay stipends to the inner city people until they can get on their feet.

[Uncle Ted]

UNLESS THE DEMOCRATS RUN SANDERS, A TRUMP NOMINATION MEANS A TRUMP PRESIDENCY

Democrats need to seriously and pragmatically assess their strategy for defeating Trump. A Clinton run would be disastrous; Bernie Sanders is their only hope.
[...]

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/...ump-presidency

[Eddie]

Fox News showed an entrance poll for Nevada which reflects that among Hispanic voters Trump is getting 41%, Rubio 29% and Cruz 16%.

The candidate who has made the most hostile comments towards illegal immigrants is getting the most votes from that ethnic group. This must be bizarro world.

I was listening to an interesting podcast the other day regarding the Hispanic vote and Rubio/Cruz. Most of ya'll who pay attention to politics probably already know this - but it was new to me. Apparently, because of their Cuban heritage, the non-Cuban Hispanics don't claim them. The person I was listening to indicated that Jeb Bush is viewed as more Hispanic than either Rubio or Cruz.

Apparently there is a lot of disdain for Cubans - who are viewed get the easy entry to the US due to being granted some sort of political asylum and a much easier pathway to permanent residency. So, apparently, the rest of the Hispanic community doesn't view Cubans as really understanding them or their issues.

I found it interesting and surprising - but I guess it makes sense that the Hispanic vote would be backing someone else.

[byu71]

Apparently there is a lot of disdain for Cubans - who are viewed get the easy entry to the US due to being granted some sort of political asylum and a much easier pathway to permanent residency. So, apparently, the rest of the Hispanic community doesn't view Cubans as really understanding them or their issues.

I can see that, but then why would most of the Hispanic community be pro democrats because they will provide a easier way to citizenship for those who enter illegally?

[Eddie]

I can see that, but then why would most of the Hispanic community be pro democrats because they will provide a easier way to citizenship for those who enter illegally?

Way over-generalization - but most come from a history of having been mistreated and taken advantage of. They come from places with crappy governments that provide crappy services and offer no protections for the poor who are being taken advantage of by the wealthy. And they come from places of so much corruption that they really can't do anything about it. (Some of this is their perception, some is real.)

So they now get to vote for someone who is going to take care of them? Make sure things are "fair?" Someone who will make sure that labor laws are in place and enforced that protect them and their interests? They get to vote for someone who isn't threatening to deport their friend or relative who is here undocumented?

Of course there is a draw to the Democratic Party. And it isn't just about immigration.

[byu71]

Way over-generalization - but most come from a history of having been mistreated and taken advantage of. They come from places with crappy governments that provide crappy services and offer no protections for the poor who are being taken advantage of by the wealthy. And they come from places of so much corruption that they really can't do anything about it. (Some of this is their perception, some is real.)

So they now get to vote for someone who is going to take care of them? Make sure things are "fair?" Someone who will make sure that labor laws are in place and enforced that protect them and their interests? They get to vote for someone who isn't threatening to deport their friend or relative who is here undocumented?

Of course there is a draw to the Democratic Party. And it isn't just about immigration.

OK, then your comments about the Cubans is a way over-generalization. They certainly didn't come from a good situation.

I just don't understand why a hispanic would feel one way about an undocumented and another way about a Cuban.

[Uncle Ted]

I can see that, but then why would most of the Hispanic community be pro democrats because they will provide a easier way to citizenship for those who enter illegally?

Yes, the Hispanic community understands simple economics: supply and demand. More illegal or legal immigration just increases the supply and lowers wages for everyone. Who cares about growing the economy? It's most likely their world they are most worried about.

[Dwight Schr-ute]

According to the FB feeds of people in my ward, it looks like Glen Beck AND Donald Trump were hanging out at our neighborhood precinct last night. Seems weird. Aren't there rules against on site campaigning at precincts? Or do those not apply to caucuses?

[Maximus]

Bloomberg, you are our only hope

[Sullyute]

Bloomberg, you are our only hope

jeremy-corbyn-obi-wan.jpg

[imanihonjin]

Bloomberg, you are our only hope

Wow. What an amazing election cycle when nanny Bloomberg seems like a white knight.

[byu71]

We could have in the republican party the "I will show you, I just won't vote crowd" coming out and voting and those that voted taking a pass or of all sad thoughts, vote for Hillary.

There was a time I was happy conservative talk radio and likes of Hannity, Rush and Beck had a following as I thought it helped the Republican party. In the long run I think they have brought it to the brink of total chaos.

At least Cruz is doing one good thing if people like them would listen, your type of conservatives represent a very small group.