The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Northwestcoug]

OK. Not catholic. I am very confused.

I know a lot of fellow Catholics. They're kind of tired of the abortion debate also.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I don't take Trump seriously either. But I did learn something depressing last week. Both Rubio and Cruz are staunch pro-lifers, to the point of banning abortion in both rape and incest. Given their other conservative credentials, I assume their views on abortion are genuine. However, everyone knows that this extreme position will not fly in a general election. If either one of them survives to win the nomination, will they continue with their conviction, or will they dial it back to be more in keeping with the general electorate?

The republican primary platform has included a repeal of Roe v. Wade for decades, which I assume is a bone for the more conservative primary voters. I don't fault Rubio or anyone else for their convictions, but it seems inevitable that we won't hear much about an outright abortion ban from whoever wins the nomination. Which will make any viable republican candidate as much a panderer as Trump...

I am so frustrated and tired with the republican party. I know the democrats have to play a similar game in their primaries with the hard left, but the general electorate has clearly moved to the center as far as abortion is concerned. Can we please stop pretending Roe v. Wade will ever get overturned?

The US has more liberal laws on abortion than practically all of Western Europe.

There's also this misconception about how abortion was outlawed throughout the US prior to Roe v. Wade. States were free to make their own decision and some chose to legalize it.

Also, I'm not sure the country has moved all that much on abortion in the last 10-20 years. Unlike, say, gay marriage there hasn't been a big momentum shift towards support of the current abortion laws in the US. I'd say the abortion laws are further to the left of what most people would prefer.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

[imanihonjin]

The US has more liberal laws on abortion than practically all of Western Europe.

There's also this misconception about how abortion was outlawed throughout the US prior to Roe v. Wade. States were free to make their own decision and some chose to legalize it.

Also, I'm not sure the country has moved all that much on abortion in the last 10-20 years. Unlike, say, gay marriage there hasn't been a big momentum shift towards support of the current abortion laws in the US. I'd say the abortion laws are further to the left of what most people would prefer.

Also, it is interesting that Rubio is extreme in his position but Obama, while a state senator, can oppose the Born-Alive Infant Protection Act and nobody bats an eye.

[Commando]

Yeah I've moved on lots of things. Abortion is not one of em.

[Northwestcoug]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

According to this, 50% of people identify as 'pro-choice'. Pro-lifers have hit 50% only twice in the last 40 years. Currently, 19% of those polled believe that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances, and that has stayed fairly consistent throughout the years. Although the percentages have been pretty consistent for awhile, I see no evidence to support your statement that 'abortion laws are further to the left of what most people would prefer'.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Yeah I've moved on lots of things. Abortion is not one of em.

Gay marriage, adoption by gay couples, but not abortion. They're entirely different issues and it doesn't make much sense to me why supporting one would make you support the other.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

According to this, 50% of people identify as 'pro-choice'. Pro-lifers have hit 50% only twice in the last 40 years. Currently, 19% of those polled believe that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances, and that has stayed fairly consistent throughout the years. Although the percentages have been pretty consistent for awhile, I see no evidence to support your statement that 'abortion laws are further to the left of what most people would prefer'.

Look at the laws in all the countries of Western Europe, outside of the UK, and then compare them to what the US Supreme Court requires. If you lined up the laws in, say, Germany and compared them to US laws, more people would support the German laws.

A huge portion of people that think it should be legal only under certain circumstances only support it in cases of rape and when the woman's life is in danger.

When you start treading into questions on selectivity because of the baby's sex and purely elective abortions regardless of circumstance, the support goes down.

[Northwestcoug]

Look at the laws in all the countries of Western Europe, outside of the UK, and then compare them to what the US Supreme Court requires. If you lined up the laws in, say, Germany and compared them to US laws, more people would support the German laws.

A huge portion of people that think it should be legal only under certain circumstances only support it in cases of rape and when the woman's life is in danger.
When you start treading into questions on selectivity because of the baby's sex and purely elective abortions regardless of circumstance, the support goes down.

You're going to have to find a different source to back that up. Setting aside the 19% who think it should be illegal in all cases (since we are arguing about those who consider it should be legal), 42% of those polled think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 36% think it should be legal in only a few cases. I don't know what your definition of 'huge' is, but whatever it is, more think there should be less rather than more restrictions.

[Maximus]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...mepage%2Fstory

Donald Trump called Monday for a "total and complete shutdown" of the entry of Muslims to the United States "until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on."

Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told the Associated Press that the ban would apply to "everybody," including both immigrants and tourists. Soon after the statement was released, Trump tweeted that he had "just put out a very important policy statement on the extraordinary influx of hatred and danger coming into our country." He added in the tweet: "We must be vigilant!"

[Color Me Badd Fan]

You're going to have to find a different source to back that up. Setting aside the 19% who think it should be illegal in all cases (since we are arguing about those who consider it should be legal), 42% of those polled think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 36% think it should be legal in only a few cases. I don't know what your definition of 'huge' is, but whatever it is, more think there should be less rather than more restrictions.

Legal in a few cases means health of woman, rape, invest and perhaps because of deformity or birth defect. I doubt those people are okay with "because a pregnancy would massively disrupt my life." The operative word is few.

[Northwestcoug]

Legal in a few cases means health of woman, rape, invest and perhaps because of deformity or birth defect. I doubt those people are okay with "because a pregnancy would massively disrupt my life." The operative word is few.

Right. And I'm saying that 36% hold that view, while 42% favor less restrictions. More people want it to be legal for cases other than assault or significant birth defects. And it's been that way for awhile.

I'm not making a judgment call. I'm just saying that for most people, the argument to ban abortion outright is over; it's been for some time. Cruz, Rubio, and others want to bring it up again.

[Commando]

I don't know if a guy like Rubio really wants that- just haven't followed him. Of course, in politics you need to leave room for negotiation- not start in the middle.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Right. And I'm saying that 36% hold that view, while 42% favor less restrictions. More people want it to be legal for cases other than assault or significant birth defects. And it's been that way for awhile.

I'm not making a judgment call. I'm just saying that for most people, the argument to ban abortion outright is over; it's been for some time. Cruz, Rubio, and others want to bring it up again.

The argument isn't whether abortion should be outlawed. There's a difference between overturning Roe v. Wade and outlawing abortion. The federal government can't outlaw abortion at the state level. Roe v. Wade takes the decision away from the states and disallows states from outlawing abortion.

This poll was conducted Marist. It suggests exactly what I'm saying, Americans support the restrictions that are found in almost every Western European country:
http://www.kofc.org/un/en/news/relea...tions2014.html

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Aside from all of that, there are four pro life justices on the court right now. If, say, Rubio gets elected and Ginsburg dies then Rubio will have a chance to get a pro life justice onto the court.

Bush replaced O'Connor with Alito. That was a gain of a justice on the pro life side. Obama replaced two pro choice justices with two of the same. There was a huge fight over Clarence Thomas because there was a thought that he'd be the fifth justice needed to overturn Roe v. Wade, there was Rehnquist, Scalia, Kennedy and White already sitting on the court. No one knew whether Kennedy had fully gone pro choice at that point.

Alito, Thomas and Roberts will be on the Court for a long time unless one has an untimely death. Kagan and Sotomayor will be there for even longer. Breyer probably also has a while too.

Ginsburg, Scalia and Kennedy probably won't be on the court for significantly longer.