Election day battleground state update thread (OH, PA, FL, VA, MI, NH, NV, CO, IA)

[oxcoug]

Given that it really comes down to these states I'd like to have a thread focused on these so we don't have to sort through various banter and half-assed general trolling (swing state specific trolling is welcome).

First off - can anyone make anything of this detailed Gannett report showing Romney leading by 90,000 in OH among EV?

It was on the Cincinatti.com home page, then got pulled but Gannett hasn't killed the link - anyone? Ohioans?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...nclick_check=1

[Moliere]

County Precs. Rprtg Obama Romney
Adams 35 0 0 0
Allen 88 0 0 0
Ashland 49 0 0 0
Ashtabula 127 1 0 147
Athens 56 56 6,900 10,732
Auglaize 40 40 5,307 6,774
Belmont 70 0 0 0
Brown 32 32 4,627 5,474
Butler 318 55 5,928 9,126
Carroll 24 24 2,575 4,746
Champaign 28 0 0 0
Clark 100 0 0 0
Clermont 200 43 4,339 6,909
Clinton 39 0 0 0
Columbn 89 88 11,626 13,791
Coshocton 25 0 0 0
Crawford 41 0 0 0
Cuyahoga 1,063 745 113,373 127,570
Darke 43 43 5,338 8,013
Defiance 33 33 3,410 6,173
Delaware 143 0 0 0
Erie 62 0 0 0
Fairfield 105 35 6,838 8,242
Fayette 25 25 2,843 3,552
Franklin 1,099 524 72,796 76,429
Fulton 36 36 5,348 5,653
Gallia 35 35 4,818 3,822
Geauga 78 0 0 0
Greene 147 0 0 0
Guernsey 35 35 4,084 5,567
Hamilton 545 137 24,808 29,969
Hancock 63 63 11,068 9,667
Hardin 21 21 4,194 2,889
Harrison 16 16 1,965 2,100
Henry 23 23 3,630 4,294
Highland 31 31 5,233 5,700
Hocking 26 26 3,394 3,480
Holmes 19 19 3,071 3,918
Huron 48 0 0 0
Jackson 30 30 3,870 5,125
Jefferson 82 0 0 0
Knox 58 0 0 0
Lake 157 44 7,913 6,892
Lawrence 84 24 1,396 2,793
Licking 125 125 19,482 23,752
Logan 40 40 5,657 5,989
Lorain 195 107 20,154 26,380
Lucas 355 291 46,695 50,989
Madison 27 0 0 0
Mahoning 273 205 20,477 26,577
Marion 84 84 7,782 8,086
Medina 117 82 15,554 19,053
Meigs 27 0 0 0
Mercer 36 0 0 0
Miami 81 42 5,783 6,915
Monroe 28 0 0 0
Montgomery 360 10 1,584 1,529
Morgan 13 13 1,245 1,995
Morrow 33 33 4,065 5,330
Muskingum 68 0 0 0
Noble 27 0 0 0
Ottawa 44 44 4,805 6,761
Paulding 17 17 2,414 2,325
Perry 46 0 0 0
Pickaway 48 48 6,911 6,208
Pike 24 24 2,960 4,170
Portage 131 0 0 0
Preble 43 43 5,675 5,256
Putnam 24 0 0 0
Richland 85 50 10,364 11,128
Ross 76 24 2,796 2,925
Sandusky 58 1 274 8
Scioto 77 0 0 0
Seneca 51 44 5,799 6,060
Shelby 35 0 0 0
Stark 284 161 26,093 28,498
Summit 298 135 27,714 31,768
Trumbull 210 1 159 147
Tuscarawas 81 1 35 289
Union 42 42 5,259 7,156
Van Wert 39 39 3,519 4,852
Vinton 20 20 1,888 1,280
Warren 172 131 19,711 22,170
Washington 56 0 0 0
Wayne 85 0 0 0
Williams 26 0 0 0
Wood 97 0 0 0
Wyandot 24 0 0 0
Totals 9,550 4,141 605,546 697,143

Looks to me like Romney is winning by 90K votes

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Looks to me like Romney is winning by 90K votes

If this is true, Obama's in deep shit in Ohio.

[Mormon Red Death]

Given that it really comes down to these states I'd like to have a thread focused on these so we don't have to sort through various banter and half-assed general trolling (swing state specific trolling is welcome).

First off - can anyone make anything of this detailed Gannett report showing Romney leading by 90,000 in OH among EV?

It was on the Cincinatti.com home page, then got pulled but Gannett hasn't killed the link - anyone? Ohioans?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...nclick_check=1

we already have a swing state thread... please merge thsi.

[BYUMizzou]

The numbers seem in line with this listing of early vote totals:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...fR3VFN1E#gid=0

The numbers in your link are slightly lower than the numbers in the spreadsheet showing the total numbers of early voters. For example, in Cuyahoga county, there were 253K early voters, and your link shows a total of 240K ballots counted.

It could be that there are a number of ballots not counted yet or provisional ballots, but your link seems fairly accurate.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Looks to me like Romney is winning by 90K votes

Romney leading in Cuyahoga county? I don't think so. It's more plausible that they mixed up the Obama and Romney columns.

[Maximus]

Given that it really comes down to these states I'd like to have a thread focused on these so we don't have to sort through various banter and half-assed general trolling (swing state specific trolling is welcome).

First off - can anyone make anything of this detailed Gannett report showing Romney leading by 90,000 in OH among EV?

It was on the Cincinatti.com home page, then got pulled but Gannett hasn't killed the link - anyone? Ohioans?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...nclick_check=1

false. author retracted and said votes not even counted yet.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...nclick_check=1

[Uncle Ted]

Where's Minnesota? Obama is only up by 3 points (or less...) in this state and he sent in Mr. Bill so the dems must be worried Politico is calling a toss up.

"Minnesota is very much a battleground state due the low minority population of the state and President Obama’s problems with white voters. Romney has a good chance to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the election cycle in this state,"

[oxcoug]

false. author retracted and said votes not even counted yet.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...nclick_check=1

I'd heard this which is why I was asking - but this is a very strange thing - if they're not counted was someone just making up those numbers? Did the Gannett journo who posted it get gamed?

Or is this is a case where those are, in fact, the numbers but Gannett realized they weren't supposed to be posting them?

Strange in any event.

And if there is another swing state thread - merge away.

[Moliere]

I'd heard this which is why I was asking - but this is a very strange thing - if they're not counted was someone just making up those numbers? Did the Gannett journo who posted it get gamed?

Or is this is a case where those are, in fact, the numbers but Gannett realized they weren't supposed to be posting them?

Strange in any event.

And if there is another swing state thread - merge away.

It's very likely the EV have not been counted so I have no idea where the information came from. I know in Texas the EVs are not counted until the polls close on election day. There's a reason for this as it allows no one to know the current vote count until the election is essentially over. I can't imagine that the EVs in Ohio would already be counted and that a newspaper would have the tally. That would be a huge mistake in the voting process.

[Indy Coug]

My guess is someone was doing a test drive of posting results to the web and had some dummied up numbers that have no basis in reality.

[DU Ute]

we already have a swing state thread... please merge thsi.

No, don't merge them. The other thread is only for people who live in swing states, WhyOiho will delete your post if you are an outsider. Typical elitist Republican disenfranchisement crap.

[NorthShoreCoug]

The numbers seem in line with this listing of early vote totals:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...fR3VFN1E#gid=0

The numbers in your link are slightly lower than the numbers in the spreadsheet showing the total numbers of early voters. For example, in Cuyahoga county, there were 253K early voters, and your link shows a total of 240K ballots counted.

It could be that there are a number of ballots not counted yet or provisional ballots, but your link seems fairly accurate.

So I applied the Obama 2008 pct of votes to the 2012 early vote counts. Under this assumption, Obama's early vote lead drops from 137k in 2008 (53.9% to 46.1%) to 107k in 2012 (53.0% to 47.0%). This assumption implies a lot of things that clearly won't be true, but gives a first approximation of what is happening, and is much more likely to be less favorable to Romney than reality. For example, it is unlikely that Obama's share of the vote is the same as in 2008, it is almost certainly lower.

The net drop in Obama's lead is certainly encouraging to Romney supporters, but by itself, it gets Romney only about 10% of the way towards the 250k change he needs from 2008.

[falafel]

It's very likely the EV have not been counted so I have no idea where the information came from. I know in Texas the EVs are not counted until the polls close on election day. There's a reason for this as it allows no one to know the current vote count until the election is essentially over. I can't imagine that the EVs in Ohio would already be counted and that a newspaper would have the tally. That would be a huge mistake in the voting process.

I'm in California this morning, and on the local NPR station they were talking about the number of vote by mail ballots that were sent out this year (higher than ever, IIRC). However, a very large number of those ballots haven't actually been returned yet, leading election officials to expect that they'll be dropped off at the polls tonight.

I mention this because they were talking about how normally the vote by mail ballots could be counted early, but the ones that are dropped off on election night will have to wait until after the polls close tonight to be counted.

[falafel]

My guess is someone was doing a test drive of posting results to the web and had some dummied up numbers that have no basis in reality.