Romney vs. Obama Prediction Thread

[byu71]

My guess is the status quo will continue. Obama will win, the Senate stays in the hands of the Democrats (maybe losing a 1 or 2 seat advantage) , and the House stays GOP.

I would actually prefer if Obama wins he gets another chance with a democratic Senate and House. If the economy goes well the next two years, we can all be happy about that.

If the economy goes as I suspect it will, the dems won't have power for another decade, no matter how many minority voters there are.

[USUC]

I would actually prefer if Obama wins he gets another chance with a democratic Senate and House. If the economy goes well the next two years, we can all be happy about that.

If the economy goes as I suspect it will, the dems won't have power for another decade, no matter how many minority voters there are.

If the economy does well in the next two years it will be in spite of Obama as opposed to because of him (with or without the House). I really don't think government has much control over this stuff anyway. I suppose they can create an environment for growth but not much more. The biggest worry for me with Obama is filling potential SCOTUS vacancies.

[byu71]

If the economy does well in the next two years it will be in spite of Obama as opposed to because of him (with or without the House). I really don't think government has much control over this stuff anyway. I suppose they can create an environment for growth but not much more. The biggest worry for me with Obama is filling potential SCOTUS vacancies.

I guess my position has to do with where I am in life. Whatever the dems do isn't going to hurt me. A raise in taxes won't kill me. The dems will borrow from you younger folks to pay my Social Security.

I am worried about my kids. 2 are just fine. Have seniority in government type jobs. The other 3 I worry about. One is in sales and does very well. However another recession or even this slow growth rising defecits will eventually hurt.

The other two are in jeopardy. Decent, but not great jobs. An eventual recession and rising defecits will end up really hurting them. Could be a problem for me too since I co-signed for both of them. I could end up with two house payments.

I want a long term economic fix for them. I am pretty sure that won't come with a stalemate politically. I also don't think it will come with the dems in power, but if it happened that would be fine.

[USUC]

I guess my position has to do with where I am in life. Whatever the dems do isn't going to hurt me. A raise in taxes won't kill me. The dems will borrow from you younger folks to pay my Social Security.

I am worried about my kids. 2 are just fine. Have seniority in government type jobs. The other 3 I worry about. One is in sales and does very well. However another recession or even this slow growth rising defecits will eventually hurt.

The other two are in jeopardy. Decent, but not great jobs. An eventual recession and rising defecits will end up really hurting them. Could be a problem for me too since I co-signed for both of them. I could end up with two house payments.

I want a long term economic fix for them. I am pretty sure that won't come with a stalemate politically. I also don't think it will come with the dems in power, but if it happened that would be fine.

I understand those concerns. They are real and justified. I'm just not that convinced that the GOP will ultimately make any more sound economic policy than the Democrats. Deficit spending scares the hell out of me but I don't think the GOP has been much better over the past decade.

[New Mexican Disaster]

I would actually prefer if Obama wins he gets another chance with a democratic Senate and House. If the economy goes well the next two years, we can all be happy about that.

If the economy goes as I suspect it will, the dems won't have power for another decade, no matter how many minority voters there are.

It's unlikely that the economy will fare worse than it did from late 2007-early 2009 (under a Republican president), and 4 years later we are talking about an incredibly close election. So the predictions of years out of power may not be out of reach.

[SoonerCoug]

I predict that Obama wins Virginia and things start looking dismal for my cousin Mitt in a real hurry.

[byu71]

For those of you who have 401K's and you suspect Obama will win, do you plan on doing any adjusting to your investment allocations?

[Clark Addison]

For those of you who have 401K's and you suspect Obama will win, do you plan on doing any adjusting to your investment allocations?

Nope.

[jay santos]

For those of you who have 401K's and you suspect Obama will win, do you plan on doing any adjusting to your investment allocations?

No.

[Uncle Ted]

For those of you who have 401K's and you suspect Obama will win, do you plan on doing any adjusting to your investment allocations?

I won't be making a major changes (not my style) but will be hedging here and there. If Obama wins I think that things like health-care related investments and hard assets like real estate (mutual funds) will be a good hedge. If Rmoney wins I think coal would be a great hedge.

[beefytee]

Here's my map:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...A_1,CA_1&js=on

The ones I'm least certain about: Virginia, Colorado, Ohio.

[Pelado]

Here's my map:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...A_1,CA_1&js=on

The ones I'm least certain about: Virginia, Colorado, Ohio.

That's pretty reasonable based on current polling.

[Pheidippides]

Here's my map:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...A_1,CA_1&js=on

The ones I'm least certain about: Virginia, Colorado, Ohio.

This is my best guess too.

However, I wonder how badly Obama's "revenge" comment will hurt him. It was a stupid gaffe at a bad time that Romney has been playing up like mad. Maybe it will have no effect.

Maybe the Voting Missionaries in Ohio will make the difference.

YOhio, how many times have you been contacted?

[CJF]

I predict I'll be happy when this is over and we can get back to trolling over the important issues like crazy bishops. The trolling over the election has become so weak I feel sad.

[Goatnapper'96]

I said before in the "Final Two" thread that I thought it was going to be 52-47 for Romney. That was back in the last part of June. Although I want to stick with that, I'm going to hedge it down a bit.

Swing states include the following states: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Did I want to leave Pennsylvania and Michigan off this list? Yes I did, but RCP says they're still toss-ups. Does Romney have any chance with them? Well, Obama won Indiana in 2008, so I suppose it's possible.

Here are my predictions:

Romney|51
Obama|48

Electoral Votes --

Romney|285
Obama|253

Swing States won --

Romney|Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa
Obama|Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada

Closest state -- Nevada.

I think Romney gets 50.7% of the vote to Obama's 49.3. My highly scientific methodology is I took today's RCP averages which came to 48.5 for Obama and 48.1 for Romney. I then assigned Romney 66% of the remaining undecideds which was 3.4%. That gave me a Romney advantage on popular vote of 50.3 to 49.7. I then took the average of Gallup and Rasmussen, which I think are both most consistent and most favorably disposed towards the dude I want. The two polls are both at a 1% Romney advantage at 49-48. Then awarding Mitt 66% of the 3% undecideds leads him to a 51-49 popular victory. I then averaged the two to make sure I wasn't biased and then following Dwayne's exceptional pickem skills from my favorite "What's Happening" episode I awarded all points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because their helmets with the pirate dude are so cool. So with Mitt taking Florida, Mitts win the election!

I agree with you except I think Romney also will take Wisconsin. I also think he will win Wisconsin and Ohio by as much as he will lose in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada.