What I think Oaks is really saying here is that if people had to donate to charitable organizations with after-tax dollars, they would give less. The reason they would give less is that they don't value charitable giving highly enough to take the hit out of their savings or spending, so they would take the money to make up for the increased taxes out of their donations.
In other words, Elder Oaks doesn't believe charitable-givers value the services provided by the charities highly enough to maintain the level of giving by sacrificing income.
I'm struggling to say it clearly, but the point is that I think Oaks is conceding that people give to a certain pain threshold and no more instead of valuing what they get out of their church or what their community gets out of the charity to a certain level and giving that certain amount.
Of course there would be givers in both camps, but obviously Oaks thinks the pain-threshold givers are a significant number.
To illustrate: we are taught to pay tithe on 10% of our increase. Say I'm a net tithe payer and I give 10% of my take-home pay. If the law changed and there were no tax benefit to paying tithing, I should theoretically still give 10% of my take-home pay (which didn't change when the tax write-off rule changed). The charitable deduction law wouldn't matter to the Church, because they get the same amount either way.
Oaks seems afraid that instead of still paying 10% of my take-home pay, I would notice the tax hit compared with last year (before the change in law). Last year I paid $x less in taxes due to the charitable giving write-off. And so instead of paying 10%, I'm going to pay 10%-$x to make sure that my lifestyle isn't impacted.
It seems Oaks is telling us he doesn't trust us to pay an honest tithe. So he wants the government to keep the tax exemption.
Either that or he just wants us to be richer and pay less taxes. But it seems to be more than just a philosophical position on limited government. He seems worried about revenue.
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