The 2012 Republican Primary thread, early edition

[Pelado]

The over-the-air assault erases any remaining doubt that Romney is playing to win Santorum’s home state, and it makes clear that he sees the Keystone State’s April 24 primary as a chance to unequivocally end the GOP race. If Santorum has to win Pennsylvania’s contest to sustain his campaign – as he himself has said is necessary – he’ll have to do so despite being heavily outspent yet again.

“This blows through overkill and goes into blitzkrieg,” said Chris Nicholas, a longtime Pennsylvania Republican operative unaffiliated with either campaign. “Obviously, the Romney campaign is sending a message.”

http://nationaljournal.com/2012-pres...ckout-20120409

[CardiacCoug]

Pennsylvania is such an important state in November it makes a lot of sense for Mitt to commit to campaigning there right now.

Not sure it's all about trying to embarrass or humiliate Santorum, but I'm sure the Romney camp won't mind if that's the outcome.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

http://nationaljournal.com/2012-pres...ckout-20120409

Can I assume that Romney will get Pat Toomey's endorsement?

[snowcat]

Mitt with huge lead in New York poll.

http://www.lohud.com/article/20120410/NEWS/304100109

"As the Republican Party leadership has rallied behind Romney, so too it appears, have Republican voters in New York," Siena pollster Steve Greenberg said in a statement. "Romney has extended the 15-point lead over Santorum he held last month to a now nearly three-to-one 33-point lead."

[Pelado]

Can I assume that Romney will get Pat Toomey's endorsement?

It sounds as though most of the PA Republicans have already endorsed Romney.

Poor Santorum. A prophet is not without honor save in his own country. (Ignore the huge majority Romney won in MA or the large plurality Gingrich won in GA.)

[myboynoah]

Pennsylvania is such an important state in November it makes a lot of sense for Mitt to commit to campaigning there right now.

Not sure it's all about trying to embarrass or humiliate Santorum, but I'm sure the Romney camp won't mind if that's the outcome.

If they're looking at November, I wonder how effective it will be to bombard the state with negative ads about Santorum, which has been the Romney campaign's approach. I read that the campaign has suspended its ad buys while Santorum's daughter is in the hospital.

[CardiacCoug]

If they're looking at November, I wonder how effective it will be to bombard the state with negative ads about Santorum, which has been the Romney campaign's approach. I read that the campaign has suspended its ad buys while Santorum's daughter is in the hospital.

Sure, I would hope they switch to anti-Obama and positive ads and definitely away from bashing Santorum.

[Pelado]

If they're looking at November, I wonder how effective it will be to bombard the state with negative ads about Santorum, which has been the Romney campaign's approach. I read that the campaign has suspended its ad buys while Santorum's daughter is in the hospital.

The ad buys weren't suspended - they just substituted a pro-Romney ad for the anti-Santorum ad they were going to run.

[myboynoah]

Sure, I would hope they switch to anti-Obama and positive ads and definitely away from bashing Santorum.

I have the same hope, but what I had read suggested they were going with the negative approach. They have momentum and are going to win the day anyway, so why not go more positive in what Mitt will do and, like you said, keep the negative against Obama.

[myboynoah]

The ad buys weren't suspended - they just substituted a pro-Romney ad for the anti-Santorum ad they were going to run.

I see.

[Tex]

Virginia could be a real embarrassment for Romney. ...

Romney had better not take VA for granted. A loss there would be devastating.

VA: Romney 60%, Paul %40.

[Uncle Ted]

Not so fast RMoney...

He may not be winning the votes of entire states like Mitt Romney, who picked up five more states on Tuesday, but he is winning over individual delegates to the nominating convention, already having secured half of the delegates in both Iowa and Minnesota, and working on a number of other states.

As such, Ron Paul's 2012 campaign is hoping for something like Warren G. Harding's surprise win in 1920, when Harding eventually won despite heading into the convention with the fewest delegates of any remaining candidate. And Harding went on to sweep into the White House.

And it appears that the path to the convention has been cleared of obstacles for Ron Paul, as Fox News said this week that his presence at the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa "looks inevitable at this point."

So it's within the realm of possibility that Ron Paul could upset Mitt Romney and pull the rug out from him and the Republican establishment, winning the GOP nomination despite all the odds being stacked against the Paul campaign from the race's outset.

[beefytee]

Not so fast RMoney...

I keep hearing this from Paul enthusiasts. I see that he has in fact picked up plenty of delegates in Minnesota, but Iowa neither picks nor binds delegates until June 16th. He simply had a bunch of people selected to help pick the delegates. So he has not got over half the delegates in Iowa.

Romney currently has 724 "Hard" delegates--meaning they have already been allocated. It is delusional at this point to think that anyone can stop Romney (outside of a major screw up) from getting to 1144 and even more so to think that Paul has any chance to get there.

Edit: Paul has half the members in 2 of the 4 districts that pick delegates. They pick 3 each (4 districts * 3 delegate = 12 total). That would be a total of 6 delegates. The state has 28 delegates total. 13 are picked by the conventions as a whole with 3 remaining super delegates.

[Moliere]

Not so fast RMoney...

I forgot Paul was still in the race. He's like the Jamaican bobsled team...awkward and cute and fun to listen to, but there is no way in hell he'll win.

[Moliere]

I just voted for Mitt!!